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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

913 Mount Doble Dr

913 Mount Doble Dr

Big Bear City, CA 92314

$489,999

3 bd · 2 ba · 1,456 sqft · Listed 1d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

1978

Sqft

1,456

Lot sqft

8,832

HOA / mo

None

Furnished

Yes

List date

2026-09-29T16:44:58.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$23,654

ADR

$276

Occupancy

23%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$4,665

Confidence

Low (36.74), 50 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$13,791$25,374$38,765
  • Private Hot Tub, Fire table, Barbecue, Dogs Ok

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 20 ft

    Revenue $16,056ADR $402Occ ≈ 11%5★ (18)

    Airbnb

  • Big Bear Bungalow ~ Cozy Mountain Big Bear Cottage

    Cabin · 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 174 ft

    Revenue $15,577ADR $454Occ ≈ 9%—

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Ski-Inspired Retreat - Fireplace,Close to Skiing!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 8 · 407 ft

    Revenue $3,884ADR $211Occ ≈ 5%4.2★ (10)

    Airbnb

  • Mountain Views- Gaming Table- Dog Friendly-Firepit

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 440 ft

    Revenue $38,816ADR $216Occ ≈ 49%4.8★ (55)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Sierra Family Getaway Spa/AC/Boat Parking/Wi-Fi

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $18,399ADR $288Occ ≈ 18%5★ (31)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Lake Cabin with Boat Parking 5 mins from lake

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $17,119ADR $326Occ ≈ 14%5★ (6)

    Airbnb

  • Modern Bearadise Hideaway: Spa, Firepit, 3Bdr

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $61,007ADR $280Occ ≈ 60%5★ (95)

    Airbnb

  • Spacious ❤️Master🛌 Sauna,🔥 Theater,📽 Library, 📚Pool,🎱🎯 BBQ🍔

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $37,309ADR $903Occ ≈ 11%5★ (4)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Hot Tub • Vintage Charm • Gated Yard • Poker Table

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $41,600ADR $210Occ ≈ 54%5★ (196)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • *NEW* The Starlight Cottage+ BBQ & Patio!

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $26,374ADR $218Occ ≈ 33%4.8★ (8)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

Show all 50 comps
  • Mountain Family Getaway w/ Huge Fenced Yard

    Cabin · 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $8,817ADR $279Occ ≈ 9%4★ (3)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • On Mountain Time-2bed 1bath+Loft

    House · 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $7,240ADR $300Occ ≈ 7%4.6★ (20)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 5 Mi to Big Bear Lake: Cozy Cottage w/ Hot Tub

    Cottage · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $25,307ADR $245Occ ≈ 28%4.7★ (46)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 5 Mi to Big Bear Lake: Cozy Cottage w/ Hot Tub

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $31,818ADR $254Occ ≈ 34%5★ (1)

    Booking

  • Relaxing Bearadise Cottage at Big Bear Lake

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $48,203ADR $400Occ ≈ 33%5★ (1)

    Booking

  • Relaxing Bearadise Cottage at Big Bear Lake

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $59,422ADR $509Occ ≈ 32%4.8★ (11)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Cozy Mountain Retreat w/ Jacuzzi & Fireplace

    Cabin · 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $38,415ADR $315Occ ≈ 33%4.8★ (382)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The Heartfelt Cabin: Best Views, Large Backyard!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $10,219ADR $379Occ ≈ 7%4.9★ (9)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Single Level Home w/Entry Ramp In Big Bear

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $12,604ADR $349Occ ≈ 10%5★ (14)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Game Room! Close to Slopes, Village & LAKE PC

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $47,937ADR $560Occ ≈ 23%4.8★ (17)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Sequoia Mountain Retreat Big Bear~ Minutes to Activities

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $849ADR $0Occ ≈ ——

    Booking

  • Cozy Family Cabin-Fireplace & Near Ski Lifts/Hikes

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $29,628ADR $114Occ ≈ 71%4.8★ (35)

    Airbnb

  • Delightful 3-bedroom cabin with hot tub

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $45,651ADR $233Occ ≈ 54%5★ (55)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Renovated cabin, close to town, Lake & activities

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $16,476ADR $488Occ ≈ 9%4.9★ (103)

    Airbnb

  • Wifi, Pool Table, Patio BBQ, Deck, Fireplace, TV+

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $30,264ADR $291Occ ≈ 28%4.8★ (562)

    Airbnb

  • Atlas Ridge Cabin | NEW! Cozy, Hot Tub, Fireplace

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $5,198ADR $337Occ ≈ 4%5★ (6)

    Airbnb

  • FOUR SEASON CABIN

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $28,977ADR $525Occ ≈ 15%4.7★ (102)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Designer Cottage | Hot tub | fire pit | BBQ grill

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $50,091ADR $293Occ ≈ 47%4.8★ (219)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Big Bear Mountain Cabin | Pet-Friendly

    Cabin · 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $13,817ADR $238Occ ≈ 16%4.4★ (177)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Modern Hideaway • Earthy & Chic 3BR, Game Room, AC

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $40,917ADR $327Occ ≈ 34%4.9★ (47)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Modern Mountain Retreat - Dog Friendly, Foosball

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $15,749ADR $391Occ ≈ 11%4.5★ (4)

    Airbnb

  • Modern Hideaway in Big Bear

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $39,087ADR $305Occ ≈ 35%—

    Booking

  • Cozy Pet Friendly Big Bear Cabin

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $20,654ADR $257Occ ≈ 22%3.8★ (2)

    Booking

  • Peaceful Cabin: Hot Tub, Fire Pit and Pool Table

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $36,013ADR $272Occ ≈ 36%4.9★ (111)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • “Sweet OSO Cabin” Adventures are just a CLiCk Away

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $3,426ADR $180Occ ≈ 5%5★ (2)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Four Seasons Retreat

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $38,611ADR $370Occ ≈ 29%4.9★ (121)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Peter Pan Lodge: 3bed/2bath, Fireplace+karaoke

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $14,934ADR $267Occ ≈ 15%4.9★ (32)

    Airbnb

  • Blue Bear Lodge Big Bear- Spacious Single-Level Family Retreat

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $25,440ADR $1,269Occ ≈ 5%—

    Booking

  • Carrera Cozy Cabin | FencedBackyard+FirePit+HotTub

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $21,003ADR $602Occ ≈ 10%5★ (27)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Blue Bear Lodge Big Bear- Foosball- Forest Cabin

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $13,782ADR $621Occ ≈ 6%4★ (2)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Built 2021! 1600 sq ft new home! Rejuvenate/relax

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $26,496ADR $190Occ ≈ 38%4.8★ (130)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Big Bear RnR: Escape from Suburbia and Relax!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $19,223ADR $235Occ ≈ 22%4.8★ (32)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Family Friendly - Hot Tub - Bonus Living Space

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $46,659ADR $199Occ ≈ 64%4.8★ (357)

    Airbnb

  • Big Bear: Beautiful Vacation Home Under the Pines

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $3,296ADR $207Occ ≈ 4%4★ (2)

    Airbnb

  • Yogi Bears Den - Close to Lake and Slopes

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $46,421ADR $703Occ ≈ 18%—

    Booking

  • "Cozy Bear Cabin, Hot tub, & Game Room"

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $41,436ADR $357Occ ≈ 32%4.7★ (10)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Atlas Ridge Cabin | Cozy, HotTub, Arcade, Firepit

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $1,780ADR $286Occ ≈ 2%5★ (3)

    Airbnb

  • Black bear bunker

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $1,462ADR $210Occ ≈ 2%5★ (1)

    Airbnb

  • Holiday Nights: hot tub & fireside relaxation

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $10,060ADR $619Occ ≈ 4%4.9★ (38)

    Airbnb

  • THE GOLDIE CABIN • Luxury stay, Hot Tub & Fire Pit

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $37,577ADR $0Occ ≈ —5★ (127)

    AirbnbVrbo

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Management
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$23,654

NOI

$4,942

Cash flow /mo

-$2,229

Cash needed

$142,100

Cash-on-cash

-18.8%

ROE (yr 1)

-6.2%

Cap rate

1.0%

DSCR

0.16

Year-1 write-off

$132,874

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$42,520

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$26,743
  • Principal paydown$3,206
  • Appreciation at%$14,700
ROE-6.2%

Tax savings aren't counted. Turn on “Count tax savings in returns” above if you can use the losses.

Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$4,731
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$710
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,183
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$6,232
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$2,499

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$122,500
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$19,600
  • Furnishing (conveyed with the sale)$0

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$42,520

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$360,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$132,000 · 37%

Year-1 deduction

$133,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$43,000

Land 27% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $228,000 over 39 years

Based on: 1,456 sq ft, built 1978, 3 bd / 2 ba, furnished, listing features (hot tub, deck, patio, fence, game room, fireplace, flooring types, appliance list).

Try the cost segregation calculator on any property →

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $88,000 in year 1 (24% short-life, $28,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$71,500
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $9,000 new × 40% good × 2.73 allocation

    $9,800
  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $7,400 new × 40% good × 2.73 allocation

    $8,000
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $2,500 new × 40% good × 2.73 allocation

    $2,800
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $300 new × 40% good × 2.73 allocation

    $300
  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,200 new × 40% good × 2.73 allocation

    $1,300
  • Window coverings (15)default

    $3,800 new × 40% good × 2.73 allocation

    $4,100
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (100% of floors)listing

    $9,400 new × 40% good × 2.73 allocation

    $10,200
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $7,000 new × 40% good × 2.73 allocation

    $7,600
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,200 new × 40% good × 2.73 allocation

    $4,600
  • Appliances (range, microwave)listing

    $2,500 new × 40% good × 2.73 allocation

    $2,700
  • Hot tub (freestanding)listing

    $9,000 new × 40% good × 2.73 allocation

    $9,800
  • Furniture conveyed with the sale (used)listing

    $19,500 new × 40% good · out of the price

    $7,800
  • Game-room equipment (used)listing

    $6,000 new × 40% good · out of the price

    $2,400
15-year land improvements$60,600
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $7,900 new × 50% good × 2.73 allocation

    $10,800
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $7,600 new × 50% good × 2.73 allocation

    $10,400
  • Patioslisting

    $6,600 new × 50% good × 2.73 allocation

    $8,900
  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $16,400 new × 50% good × 2.73 allocation

    $22,300
  • Fencinglisting

    $6,000 new × 50% good × 2.73 allocation

    $8,200
Building, 39-year$227,600
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $157,600 new × 40% good × 2.73 allocation

    $171,900
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $16,400 new × 40% good × 2.73 allocation

    $17,800
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $15,700 new × 40% good × 2.73 allocation

    $17,200
  • HVACdefault

    $16,400 new × 40% good × 2.73 allocation

    $17,900
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 2.73 allocation

    $2,900

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$71,500$60,600$700$132,900
2$0$0$5,800$5,800
3$0$0$5,800$5,800
4$0$0$5,800$5,800
5$0$0$5,800$5,800
6+$0$0$203,500$203,500
Total$71,500$60,600$227,600$359,800

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.