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Rate 7.86% = 7.11% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Nov 12) + 0.75% investor premium

257 Turlock Dr

257 Turlock Dr

Big Bear City, CA 92314

$558,888

3 bd · 3 ba · 1,736 sqft · Listed 52d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

1966

Sqft

1,736

Lot sqft

9,139

HOA / mo

None

Furnished

No

List date

2026-09-22T04:03:29Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$29,469

ADR

$266

Occupancy

30%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$6,554

Confidence

Low (37.62), 48 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$15,539$25,260$36,656

Median revenue of shown comps: $25,211

  • Bear Paw Lodge *Cozy home w/ fireplace & game room

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 240 ft

    Revenue $17,293ADR $253Occ ≈ 19%4.8★ (43)

    Delisted

  • Cozy Cabin: Your Big Bear Retreat with jaccuzi

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 351 ft

    Revenue $20,714ADR $388Occ ≈ 15%4.7★ (14)

    Delisted

  • Top 1% Home! StunningViews, GameRoom, AC, FirePit

    Chalet · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 394 ft

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +6

    Revenue $67,790ADR $269Occ ≈ 69%5★ (190)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Cozy Mountain Cabin w/ Hot Tub, Fireplace & Deck

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 413 ft

    Revenue $5,036ADR $296Occ ≈ 5%5★ (6)

    Delisted

  • The Lazy Bear Inn- Family Friendly Game Room & Spa

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 433 ft

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +6

    Revenue $23,150ADR $332Occ ≈ 19%4.8★ (50)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Private Hot Tub • Game Room • Mountain Views

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 469 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +4

    Revenue $54,961ADR $280Occ ≈ 54%5★ (174)

    Airbnb

  • 🍁 MalaBear Lodge in the🌲 🌲15 min to 🏔 Private Spa

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $40,027ADR $346Occ ≈ 32%4.9★ (182)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Cozy BearPaw Cave Cabin

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +1

    Revenue $17,204ADR $314Occ ≈ 15%5★ (48)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • PK Serene 3BR Cabin w/ Hot Tub & Outdoor Projector

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $25,009ADR $380Occ ≈ 18%4.8★ (389)

    Airbnb

  • Dutch Hideaway-3bed W/Gameroom

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +1

    Revenue $13,797ADR $428Occ ≈ 9%4.8★ (6)

    AirbnbVrbo

Show 38 more
  • Three 3's Cabin|Gated, AC, dogs ok, Spa, Lrg Yard

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $26,723ADR $223Occ ≈ 33%4.7★ (29)

    Airbnb

  • Pet-friendly cabin with Mountain Views

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $30,987ADR $173Occ ≈ 49%5★ (50)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Vintage Hollywood Hideaway: Spa, Sauna, Speakeasy

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +6

    Revenue $71,379ADR $339Occ ≈ 58%4.9★ (285)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Hot Tub! Family! Close to Forest / Slopes/Lake PEA

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +4

    Revenue $7,453ADR $551Occ ≈ 4%4.5★ (8)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Play Big Bear - Relaxing Bear City Family Retreat-

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $29,403ADR $361Occ ≈ 22%3★ (2)

    Airbnb

  • *Play Big Bear* Fun-Packed BB City Family Retreat*

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $15,539ADR $274Occ ≈ 16%5★ (3)

    Booking

  • Play Big Bear #2580

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $13,048ADR $431Occ ≈ 8%—

    Booking

  • Malabar Mountain Cabin Tucked in Forest Pine View.

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $24,255ADR $148Occ ≈ 45%4.7★ (18)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Sweet Cabin Gateway | Cozy Big Bear Retreat Minutes From Adventure

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $20,932ADR $427Occ ≈ 13%—

    Booking

  • Gold Rush Retreat, Sleeps 10, Mountain Views

    House · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Fireplace

    Revenue $34,600ADR $251Occ ≈ 38%4.9★ (77)

    Airbnb

  • Le’s Serenity Cozy Cabin Hot Tub, Games, A.C.

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +5

    Revenue $32,259ADR $292Occ ≈ 30%4.8★ (21)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • 3 bedroom with fireplace + deck - Emerald Retreat

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Fireplace

    Revenue $7,496ADR $168Occ ≈ 12%5★ (5)

    Airbnb

  • ask_4_Early Check-In/Late-Checkout_@ShakaHouse

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +5

    Revenue $50,048ADR $252Occ ≈ 54%4.9★ (146)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Pet Friendly Pickleball Paradise and Hot Tub

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $43,302ADR $283Occ ≈ 42%5★ (49)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Family Fun Cabin Hot Tub Pet Friendly Game Room

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +5

    Revenue $43,531ADR $900Occ ≈ 13%5★ (4)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Bear Meadow -Create your Big Bear Memories

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $17,104ADR $468Occ ≈ 10%4.8★ (45)

    Delisted

  • Big Bear Adventure! Cabin w/ Game Room & Yard

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +2

    Revenue $12,502ADR $384Occ ≈ 9%4.7★ (11)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Big Bear A Frame

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $8,216ADR $270Occ ≈ 8%4.6★ (65)

    Airbnb

  • Grandpa’s cabin

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $772ADR $257Occ ≈ 1%—

    Airbnb

  • Hot Tub • Game Room • BBQ • Large Cabin • Dogs OK

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +6

    Revenue $52,731ADR $309Occ ≈ 47%4.9★ (273)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Pet-Friendly Big Bear Cabin ~ 6 Mi to Ski Resorts!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +1

    Revenue $20,495ADR $327Occ ≈ 17%4.8★ (50)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Big Bear-Epic Views, Fire Pits, Hot Tub, Theater!

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • +4

    Revenue $59,182ADR $340Occ ≈ 48%5★ (158)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • HOME SWEET HOME sleeps 7- Enjoy the Forest

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.3 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $22,687ADR $198Occ ≈ 31%4.8★ (83)

    Airbnb

  • Big Bear Intrigue

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $25,162ADR $221Occ ≈ 31%5★ (114)

    Airbnb

  • Stylish Family Cabin w/ Pac-Man & Stone Fireplace!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +2

    Revenue $10,028ADR $250Occ ≈ 11%4.9★ (25)

    Airbnb

  • Central AC! Maple Ridge Getaway in Big Bear

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • +4

    Revenue $32,666ADR $340Occ ≈ 26%5★ (124)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The Bears Lair Perfect for family w-full Amenities

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $25,276ADR $267Occ ≈ 26%4.5★ (30)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Spacious 3br perfect for big Group with hot tub

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $8,499ADR $406Occ ≈ 6%5★ (4)

    Delisted

  • Modern Cabin w/Mtn Views/Pool Table/Jacuzzi for 8

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.4 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +1

    Revenue $41,893ADR $534Occ ≈ 21%4.8★ (334)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Modern Big Bear Cabin w Game Room, Big Fenced Yard

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $51,036ADR $268Occ ≈ 52%5★ (88)

    Airbnb

  • Maple Ridge by Rather Be Properties

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $1,750ADR $230Occ ≈ 2%—

    Booking

  • Modern Home, Hot Tub, Pool Table, Open Family Room

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.4 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +6

    Revenue $30,485ADR $378Occ ≈ 22%5★ (29)

    Airbnb

  • Moody Lodge • Hot Tub • Darts

    House · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $36,656ADR $314Occ ≈ 32%5★ (202)

    Delisted

  • Wagon Wheel Retreat | Dog-Friendly | Sleeps 8

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.5 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $25,280ADR $259Occ ≈ 27%4.9★ (17)

    Airbnb

  • New Listing! 2390- Golden Bear at Shay Meadows

    Cabin · 3 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $25,260ADR $1,278Occ ≈ 5%—

    AirbnbBooking

  • Golden Bear at Shay Meadow - Hot Tub- Foosball-

    Cabin · 3 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $873ADR $291Occ ≈ 1%—

    Delisted

  • Golden Bear at Shay Meadow - Hot Tub- Foosball-

    Cabin · 3 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $30,536ADR $1,782Occ ≈ 5%—

    Booking

  • Little Big Sky Retreat - Hot Tub

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.6 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +4

    Revenue $43,587ADR $303Occ ≈ 39%5★ (112)

    Airbnb

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Management
Term

Rate 7.86% = 7.11% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Nov 12) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$29,469

NOI

$8,020

Cash flow /mo

-$2,367

Cash needed

$181,578

Cash-on-cash

-15.6%

ROE (yr 1)

-4.4%

Cap rate

1.4%

DSCR

0.22

Year-1 write-off

$119,545

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$38,255

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$28,399
  • Principal paydown$3,600
  • Appreciation at%$16,767
ROE-4.4%

Tax savings aren't counted. Turn on “Count tax savings in returns” above if you can use the losses.

Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$5,894
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$884
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,473
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$6,986
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$2,850

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$139,722
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$22,356
  • Furnishing (bought new)$19,500

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$38,255

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$447,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$99,000 · 22%

Year-1 deduction

$120,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$38,000

Land 20% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $348,000 over 39 years · new furniture $20,000

Based on: 1,736 sq ft, built 1966, 3 bd / 3 ba, unfurnished, listing features (fireplace, stone counters, flooring types).

Try the cost segregation calculator on any property →

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $85,000 in year 1 (14% short-life, $27,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$84,300
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $9,600 new × 40% good × 3.35 allocation

    $12,900
  • Kitchen countertops (stone)listing

    $9,800 new × 40% good × 3.35 allocation

    $13,100
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $3,000 new × 40% good × 3.35 allocation

    $4,100
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $500 new × 40% good × 3.35 allocation

    $600
  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,200 new × 40% good × 3.35 allocation

    $1,600
  • Window coverings (17)default

    $4,300 new × 40% good × 3.35 allocation

    $5,700
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $7,500 new × 40% good × 3.35 allocation

    $10,000
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,500 new × 40% good × 3.35 allocation

    $6,000
  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)default

    $8,100 new × 40% good × 3.35 allocation

    $10,800
  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $19,500 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $19,500
15-year land improvements$34,100
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $8,600 new × 50% good × 3.35 allocation

    $14,400
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $8,300 new × 50% good × 3.35 allocation

    $13,900
  • Patiosdefault

    $1,700 new × 50% good × 3.35 allocation

    $2,900
  • Decks & porches (attached)default

    $1,700 new × 50% good × 3.35 allocation

    $2,900
Building, 39-year$348,200
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $188,000 new × 40% good × 3.35 allocation

    $251,600
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $19,500 new × 40% good × 3.35 allocation

    $26,100
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $19,300 new × 40% good × 3.35 allocation

    $25,800
  • HVACdefault

    $19,600 new × 40% good × 3.35 allocation

    $26,200
  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $11,200 new × 40% good × 3.35 allocation

    $14,900
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 3.35 allocation

    $3,500

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$84,300$34,100$1,100$119,500
2$0$0$8,900$8,900
3$0$0$8,900$8,900
4$0$0$8,900$8,900
5$0$0$8,900$8,900
6+$0$0$311,400$311,400
Total$84,300$34,100$348,200$466,600

The building's share of the price ($447,000) is 3.3x our depreciated replacement cost of the home ($134,000). The IRS guide treats a gap this size as a reason to review the land share: if land is worth more than the county ratio says, the basis and the write-off are smaller.

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California, Georgia and Wisconsin disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.