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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

356 Greenspot Blvd

356 Greenspot Blvd

Big Bear City, CA 92314

$635,000

5 bd · 3 ba · 2,513 sqft · Listed 29d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

1995

Sqft

2,513

Lot sqft

7,148

HOA / mo

None

Furnished

Yes

List date

2026-08-31T13:57:27Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$39,620

ADR

$605

Occupancy

18%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$7,182

Confidence

Low (31.73), 8 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$6,082$39,055$50,499
  • Duplicate booked - Hot Tub, Game Room, Group Getaway with EV Charger

    Vacation home · 5 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 72 ft

    Revenue $6,082ADR $232Occ ≈ 7%5★ (1)

    Booking

  • Brewer Escape ~ Modern, newly renovated escape wit

    Cabin · 5 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $50,654ADR $1,056Occ ≈ 13%5★ (3)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Newsom's Hideaway log-style cabin w/ game room

    House · 5 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $33,054ADR $770Occ ≈ 12%4.6★ (18)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Hot Tub • Central AC & Heat • Pool Table & Arcade

    Cabin · 5 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $50,499ADR $612Occ ≈ 23%5★ (51)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Central AC & Heat • Hot Tub • Pool Table & Arcade

    House · 5 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $52,011ADR $672Occ ≈ 21%5★ (14)

    Airbnb

  • VIEW! Hot Tub! Game Room! 3000 sq ft! 3 Floors BSP

    Cabin · 5 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $42,120ADR $749Occ ≈ 15%4.5★ (50)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • 5 Beds, 3 Baths, Giant Kitchen, Full Coffee Bar.

    House · 5 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $405ADR $304Occ ≈ 0%5★ (5)

    Airbnb

  • Hot Tub! Game Room! Close to Slopes! Epic Views WB

    House · 5 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $39,055ADR $693Occ ≈ 15%4.3★ (72)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • VIEWS! Hot Tub! Game Room! Close to Slopes/Lake WB

    Cabin · 5 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $5,700ADR $0Occ ≈ —4.5★ (54)

    Airbnb

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$39,620

NOI

$14,103

Cash flow /mo

-$2,247

Cash needed

$184,150

Cash-on-cash

-14.6%

ROE (yr 1)

-2.0%

Cap rate

2.2%

DSCR

0.34

Year-1 write-off

$118,845

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$38,030

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$26,959
  • Principal paydown$4,155
  • Appreciation at%$19,050
ROE-2.0%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)18.6%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$7,924
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,189
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,981
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$7,938
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$3,239

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$158,750
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$25,400
  • Furnishing (conveyed with the sale)$0

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$38,030

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$511,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$117,000 · 23%

Year-1 deduction

$119,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$38,000

Land 20% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $394,000 over 39 years

Based on: 2,513 sq ft, built 1995, 5 bd / 3 ba, furnished, listing features (fence, game room, fireplace, stone counters, flooring types, appliance list).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $88,000 in year 1 (17% short-life, $28,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$79,800
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $11,300 new × 40% good × 2.36 allocation

    $10,700
  • Kitchen countertops (stone)listing

    $11,600 new × 40% good × 2.36 allocation

    $10,900
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $4,400 new × 40% good × 2.36 allocation

    $4,100
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $500 new × 40% good × 2.36 allocation

    $400
  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,800 new × 40% good × 2.36 allocation

    $1,700
  • Window coverings (25)default

    $6,300 new × 40% good × 2.36 allocation

    $5,900
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (100% of floors)listing

    $16,200 new × 40% good × 2.36 allocation

    $15,300
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $8,800 new × 40% good × 2.36 allocation

    $8,300
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $5,300 new × 40% good × 2.36 allocation

    $5,000
  • Appliances (range, microwave, refrigerator)listing

    $4,700 new × 40% good × 2.36 allocation

    $4,400
  • Furniture conveyed with the sale (used)listing

    $26,500 new × 40% good · out of the price

    $10,600
  • Game-room equipment (used)listing

    $6,000 new × 40% good · out of the price

    $2,400
15-year land improvements$37,000
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)listing

    $10,400 new × 50% good × 2.36 allocation

    $12,300
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $10,000 new × 50% good × 2.36 allocation

    $11,800
  • Patiosdefault

    $2,500 new × 50% good × 2.36 allocation

    $2,900
  • Decks & porches (attached)default

    $2,500 new × 50% good × 2.36 allocation

    $2,900
  • Fencinglisting

    $6,000 new × 50% good × 2.36 allocation

    $7,100
Building, 39-year$393,900
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $272,300 new × 48% good × 2.36 allocation

    $310,500
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $28,300 new × 40% good × 2.36 allocation

    $26,700
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $29,100 new × 40% good × 2.36 allocation

    $27,500
  • HVACdefault

    $28,300 new × 40% good × 2.36 allocation

    $26,700
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 2.36 allocation

    $2,500

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$79,800$37,000$2,100$118,800
2$0$0$10,100$10,100
3$0$0$10,100$10,100
4$0$0$10,100$10,100
5$0$0$10,100$10,100
6+$0$0$351,400$351,400
Total$79,800$37,000$393,900$510,600

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.