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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

1011 Colusa Way

1011 Colusa Way

Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

$789,000

4 bd · 3 ba · 2,190 sqft · Listed 11d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

1979

Sqft

2,190

Lot sqft

9,601

HOA / mo

$0

Furnished

Yes

List date

2026-09-18T17:17:17.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$60,505

ADR

$476

Occupancy

35%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$7,546

Confidence

Low (38.13), 49 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$22,005$43,288$65,713
  • Cozy Bear Chateau -Beautiful Moonridge home nestled in the pines and birches

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 11 · 16 ft

    Revenue $85,987ADR $558Occ ≈ 42%—

    Booking

  • Million Dollar View Cabin!

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 15 · 315 ft

    Revenue $52,343ADR $864Occ ≈ 17%5★ (60)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Wolf Retreat: Pool and Foosball! Lake Views!

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 13 · 443 ft

    Revenue $43,288ADR $399Occ ≈ 30%4.7★ (86)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Spacious Cabin | AC, Pool Table, Arcade

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 11 · 446 ft

    Revenue $35,080ADR $690Occ ≈ 14%4.8★ (15)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Modern Lodge Near Lake, Village, & Snow Summit

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $109,299ADR $763Occ ≈ 39%5★ (31)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Views, Gameroom, Spa, Pet-Friendly, AC, EV Charger

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $77,035ADR $372Occ ≈ 57%4.9★ (328)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Velvet Pine Cabin-Theater, Hot Tub, and Generator

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $32,605ADR $673Occ ≈ 13%4.7★ (11)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Majestic Views - Game room. Views.

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 14 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $52,675ADR $714Occ ≈ 20%4.9★ (73)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • A-Frame Point | Game Room, Movie Theater & Sauna

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $78,647ADR $656Occ ≈ 33%5★ (8)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Views nr Zoo/Golf! Pool Table, Fire Pit, SUP/Kayak

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $78,643ADR $565Occ ≈ 38%5★ (51)

    Airbnb

Show all 49 comps
  • Game Room, Hot Tub, Views, Jetted bathtub. BBQ.

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $76,379ADR $499Occ ≈ 42%4.9★ (251)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cozy Cabin w/ Views - 1 Mi to Bear Mountain!

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $17,097ADR $551Occ ≈ 9%4.1★ (25)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Big Bear Ski Chalet - Walk to Slopes & Hot Tub

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $641ADR $320Occ ≈ 1%—

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Rocky Top Retreat:Near Bear Mtn!HotTub!Pool Table!

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $61,739ADR $498Occ ≈ 34%4.5★ (70)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Mountain View Lodge: Pool Table!Foosball!Hot Tub!

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 14 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $16,091ADR $0Occ ≈ —4.3★ (49)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Mountain View + Shuffleboard | Big Bear Gem

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $2,183ADR $445Occ ≈ 1%—

    Vrbo

  • Grizzly Bear Lodge: Hot Tub!Air Hockey!Fenced Yard

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $55,709ADR $439Occ ≈ 35%4.7★ (108)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Grand Mountain Views, Fenced Dog Yard, Hot Tub, AC

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $38,330ADR $448Occ ≈ 23%5★ (73)

    Airbnb

  • Edge Family Getaway: Tub!Pool Table!Internet! BBQ!

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $42,228ADR $312Occ ≈ 37%4.5★ (154)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Moonlight Memories Jacuzzi, Theatre, Dogs Okay!

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $15,475ADR $342Occ ≈ 12%—

    Booking

  • Top of the Grove: Spa! Arcade Game! Pet Friendly!

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $44,909ADR $426Occ ≈ 29%4.8★ (60)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 1 Mile from Bear Mtn! Hot Tub! Pet Friendly!

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $59,980ADR $381Occ ≈ 43%5★ (36)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Moonridge Heaven - Fun Packed Central Family Retreat w/ Hot Tub + Games

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $55,018ADR $1,595Occ ≈ 9%—

    Booking

  • HAPPY BEAR COTTAGE

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $46,860ADR $498Occ ≈ 26%4.3★ (14)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Moonridge Heaven Family Retreat- Hot Tub + Games

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $25,652ADR $824Occ ≈ 9%5★ (4)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Natures Delight Big Bear~ Hot Tub~ Resort Chalet~

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $33,570ADR $664Occ ≈ 14%—

    Booking

  • 4 Bdrm! Pet Friendly!Fully Fenced Yard! Foosball!

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $37,203ADR $349Occ ≈ 29%4.8★ (36)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Pine & Paw | Hot Tub, Sauna, EV, Media Room

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $15,918ADR $1,041Occ ≈ 4%5★ (3)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Updated Home w/ Views, Spa, Sauna, Billiards+more

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $58,420ADR $733Occ ≈ 22%5★ (123)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Sugarpines Big Bear | Panoramic Ski Slope Views

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $85,368ADR $1,991Occ ≈ 12%—

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Beautiful/Spacious Cabin! Hot Tub, Pool Table, Bar, Dartboard. Tesla charger

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 14 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $22,005ADR $831Occ ≈ 7%5★ (100)

    Vrbo

  • 'Chalet Chocolate', Near Slopes Family-friendly Has Spa, Pool Table

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $2,078ADR $1,039Occ ≈ 1%4.8★ (27)

    Vrbo

  • A-Frame Cabin • Game Room • Pine Knot Village

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $10,324ADR $561Occ ≈ 5%5★ (1)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Stunning Views! Gameroom! WalktoBearMtn!

    House · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 15 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $80,113ADR $533Occ ≈ 41%5★ (9)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • New! Bearadise ~ Charming Cabin Getaway

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $4,623ADR $269Occ ≈ 5%3.5★ (4)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Game Room, Fireplaces, Firepit, Deck

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $26,291ADR $377Occ ≈ 19%3.5★ (2)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Alpine Experience!Hot Tub!Pet Friendly!Central AC!

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $53,815ADR $420Occ ≈ 35%5★ (27)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Dawson Summit-Modern Elegant Cabin w/Hot Tub+VIEWS

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $68,979ADR $683Occ ≈ 28%5★ (84)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Large, luxury retreat with National Forest views

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $48,800ADR $485Occ ≈ 28%5★ (126)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Private Hot Tub * Spacious * Slope Views * Wet bar

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $8,364ADR $487Occ ≈ 5%—

    Airbnb

  • Fully Remodeled * Spacious * Slope Views * Wet bar

    Chalet · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $39,847ADR $642Occ ≈ 17%4.5★ (7)

    Airbnb

  • Cozy cabin by Bear Mountain w/ hot tub

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $10,774ADR $482Occ ≈ 6%5★ (12)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Bear Necessities ,4BR Cabin, Fireplace Near Slopes

    Chalet · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $17,088ADR $387Occ ≈ 12%4.3★ (6)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • SPA & SKI SLOPE VIEWS! DUAL MASTER & 2 KING BEDS, WET BAR, EV CHARGER, REMODELED

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $33,839ADR $627Occ ≈ 15%4.3★ (9)

    Vrbo

  • Near Hiking, Hot Tub, Arcade, Slope View, Games

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $65,713ADR $481Occ ≈ 37%4.9★ (137)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Slope Views! Near Bear Mountain! Pool Table! BBQ!

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $42,137ADR $716Occ ≈ 16%4.5★ (15)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Grand Forest Lodge Retreat- Hot Tub- Games-

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $68,786ADR $1,082Occ ≈ 17%4.6★ (27)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • NEW A-Frame 4BR | Hot Tub, Mtn Views, Game Loft

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $70,929ADR $416Occ ≈ 47%5★ (24)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Custom Lux Lakeview Deck Cabin, AC, Spa & Games

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 16 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $111,506ADR $1,048Occ ≈ 29%5★ (25)

    AirbnbVrbo

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$60,505

NOI

$26,661

Cash flow /mo

-$2,030

Cash needed

$228,810

Cash-on-cash

-10.6%

ROE (yr 1)

2.0%

Cap rate

3.4%

DSCR

0.52

Year-1 write-off

$165,592

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$52,989

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$24,359
  • Principal paydown$5,163
  • Appreciation at%$23,670
ROE2.0%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)25.1%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$12,101
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,815
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$3,025
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$9,863
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$4,024

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$197,250
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$31,560
  • Furnishing (conveyed with the sale)$0

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$52,989

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$633,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$164,000 · 26%

Year-1 deduction

$166,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$53,000

Land 20% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $469,000 over 39 years

Based on: 2,190 sq ft, built 1979, 4 bd / 3 ba, furnished, listing features (covered patio, fireplace, flooring types).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $125,000 in year 1 (20% short-life, $40,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$92,800
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $10,600 new × 40% good × 3.63 allocation

    $15,400
  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $8,700 new × 40% good × 3.63 allocation

    $12,600
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $3,800 new × 40% good × 3.63 allocation

    $5,600
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $500 new × 40% good × 3.63 allocation

    $700
  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,500 new × 40% good × 3.63 allocation

    $2,200
  • Window coverings (22)default

    $5,500 new × 40% good × 3.63 allocation

    $8,000
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (40% of floors)default

    $5,600 new × 40% good × 3.63 allocation

    $8,200
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $8,200 new × 40% good × 3.63 allocation

    $12,000
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $5,000 new × 40% good × 3.63 allocation

    $7,200
  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)default

    $8,100 new × 40% good × 3.63 allocation

    $11,800
  • Furniture conveyed with the sale (used)listing

    $23,000 new × 40% good · out of the price

    $9,200
15-year land improvements$71,300
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $9,700 new × 50% good × 3.63 allocation

    $17,600
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $9,300 new × 50% good × 3.63 allocation

    $16,900
  • Covered patiolisting

    $18,100 new × 50% good × 3.63 allocation

    $32,800
  • Decks & porches (attached)default

    $2,200 new × 50% good × 3.63 allocation

    $3,900
Building, 39-year$469,000
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $237,300 new × 40% good × 3.63 allocation

    $344,800
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $24,700 new × 40% good × 3.63 allocation

    $35,800
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $25,000 new × 40% good × 3.63 allocation

    $36,400
  • HVACdefault

    $24,700 new × 40% good × 3.63 allocation

    $35,800
  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $8,500 new × 40% good × 3.63 allocation

    $12,300
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 3.63 allocation

    $3,800

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$92,800$71,300$1,500$165,600
2$0$0$12,000$12,000
3$0$0$12,000$12,000
4$0$0$12,000$12,000
5$0$0$12,000$12,000
6+$0$0$419,400$419,400
Total$92,800$71,300$469,000$633,100

The building's share of the price ($624,000) is 3.6x our depreciated replacement cost of the home ($172,000). The IRS guide treats a gap this size as a reason to review the land share: if land is worth more than the county ratio says, the basis and the write-off are smaller.

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.