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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

357 Downey Dr Lot 91

357 Downey Dr Lot 91

Big Bear City, CA 92314

$580,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · Listed 3d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Negative cash flow

Year built

1990

Sqft

—

Lot sqft

7,200

HOA / mo

None

Furnished

No

List date

2026-09-26T04:09:38.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$46,674

ADR

$473

Occupancy

27%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$8,289

Confidence

Low (45.28), 16 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$34,605$44,399$61,036

  • Sky View Lodge: Sky Valley Estates Offering! Spa!

    House · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $59,887ADR $519Occ ≈ 32%4.8★ (69)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • High Altitude Hideaway With Jacuzzi & Game Room

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $49,419ADR $548Occ ≈ 25%5★ (62)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Pet-friendly cabin with game room, air hockey, poker table, private spa + more!

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $7,375ADR $381Occ ≈ 5%—

    Vrbo

  • Pet-friendly cabin with game room, air hockey, poker table, private spa + more!

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $5,148ADR $429Occ ≈ 3%4.5★ (2)

    Vrbo

  • Pet-friendly cabin with gamesPrivate spa more

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $44,126ADR $420Occ ≈ 29%4★ (10)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • FamCabin |TheaterRoom|GameRoom|EVCharger|Pets

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $74,920ADR $690Occ ≈ 30%5★ (127)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Golden Bear at Shay Meadows~ Relaxing Equestrian Estate w/ Hot Tub + Foosball

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $43,283ADR $693Occ ≈ 17%—

    Booking

  • Modern Whitehouse

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $50,950ADR $646Occ ≈ 22%5★ (18)

    Airbnb

  • Bear Den

    Chalet · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $64,483ADR $379Occ ≈ 47%4.9★ (287)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The Maple Ridge + Hot-Tub/BBQ & Game Room!

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $28,791ADR $419Occ ≈ 19%3.8★ (12)

    Airbnb

Show all 16 comps

  • Lux Log Cabin Home! Covered Patio! Pool Table!

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $76,797ADR $745Occ ≈ 28%5★ (18)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Lux Log Cabin! GameTable! EV Charger! A/C!

    House · 4 bd · 4.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $84,394ADR $538Occ ≈ 43%4.8★ (46)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cabin Compound Perfect For Large Groups! Pets Ok!

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 16 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $44,671ADR $782Occ ≈ 16%4.8★ (33)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Charming 4BR Retreat in Sugarloaf, CA

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $6,504ADR $865Occ ≈ 2%—

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Maple Ridge + Hot-Tub/BBQ & Game Room!

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $36,543ADR $406Occ ≈ 25%3.9★ (13)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Bunny's Ranch with Game Room

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.8 mi

    Revenue $38,216ADR $547Occ ≈ 19%4.5★ (6)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$46,674

NOI

$20,067

Cash flow /mo

-$1,453

Cash needed

$191,200

Cash-on-cash

-9.1%

ROE (yr 1)

2.0%

Cap rate

3.5%

DSCR

0.54

Year-1 write-off

$143,743

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$45,998

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$17,438
  • Principal paydown$3,795
  • Appreciation at%$17,400
ROE2.0%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)26.0%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$9,335
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,400
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$2,334
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$7,250
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$2,958

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$145,000
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$23,200
  • Furnishing (bought new)$23,000

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$45,998

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$441,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$120,000 · 27%

Year-1 deduction

$144,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$46,000

Land 24% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $321,000 over 39 years · new furniture $23,000

Based on: ~2,400 sq ft (from beds), built 1990, 4 bd / 3.5 ba, unfurnished, listing features (deck, fence, fireplace, stone counters, flooring types, appliance list).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $88,000 in year 1 (14% short-life, $28,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$74,500

  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $11,100 new × 40% good × 2.26 allocation

    $10,000

  • Kitchen countertops (stone)listing

    $11,300 new × 40% good × 2.26 allocation

    $10,200

  • Decorative trimdefault

    $4,200 new × 40% good × 2.26 allocation

    $3,800

  • Mirrorsdefault

    $500 new × 40% good × 2.26 allocation

    $400

  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,500 new × 40% good × 2.26 allocation

    $1,400

  • Window coverings (24)default

    $6,000 new × 40% good × 2.26 allocation

    $5,400

  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (33% of floors)listing

    $5,100 new × 40% good × 2.26 allocation

    $4,700

  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $8,600 new × 40% good × 2.26 allocation

    $7,800

  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $5,200 new × 40% good × 2.26 allocation

    $4,700

  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher)listing

    $3,500 new × 40% good × 2.26 allocation

    $3,200

  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $23,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $23,000
15-year land improvements$68,200

  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $10,200 new × 50% good × 2.26 allocation

    $11,500

  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $9,800 new × 50% good × 2.26 allocation

    $11,000

  • Patiosdefault

    $2,400 new × 50% good × 2.26 allocation

    $2,700

  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $27,000 new × 50% good × 2.26 allocation

    $30,500

  • Fencinglisting

    $6,000 new × 50% good × 2.26 allocation

    $6,800

  • Gazebo / pergolalisting

    $5,000 new × 50% good × 2.26 allocation

    $5,700
Building, 39-year$321,100

  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $260,300 new × 40% good × 2.26 allocation

    $235,400

  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $27,000 new × 40% good × 2.26 allocation

    $24,500

  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $27,700 new × 40% good × 2.26 allocation

    $25,100

  • HVACdefault

    $27,000 new × 40% good × 2.26 allocation

    $24,500

  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $10,300 new × 40% good × 2.26 allocation

    $9,300

  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 2.26 allocation

    $2,400

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$74,500$68,200$1,000$143,700
2$0$0$8,200$8,200
3$0$0$8,200$8,200
4$0$0$8,200$8,200
5$0$0$8,200$8,200
6+$0$0$287,100$287,100
Total$74,500$68,200$321,100$463,800

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.