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1509 Shay Rd

1509 Shay Rd

Big Bear City, CA 92314

$850,000

5 bd · 3 ba · Listed 1d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidence

Year built

1972

Sqft

—

Lot sqft

263,538

HOA / mo

None

Furnished

Yes

List date

2026-10-18T20:19:42.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$47,214

ADR

$694

Occupancy

19%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$9,801

Confidence

Low (49.27), 6 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$36,015$48,285$53,424

Few similar-size comps were found, so all comps are shown.

Median revenue of shown comps: $48,285

  • VIEW! Hot Tub! Game Room! 3000 sq ft! 3 Floors BSP

    Cabin · 5 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.4 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +5

    Revenue $45,430ADR $749Occ ≈ 17%4.5★ (50)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Central AC & Heat • Hot Tub • Pool Table & Arcade

    House · 5 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.5 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +5

    Revenue $55,645ADR $668Occ ≈ 23%5★ (14)

    Airbnb

  • Hot Tub • Central AC & Heat • Pool Table & Arcade

    Cabin · 5 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.6 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +4

    Revenue $54,185ADR $613Occ ≈ 24%5★ (51)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Newsom's Hideaway log-style cabin w/ game room

    House · 5 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $32,876ADR $770Occ ≈ 12%4.6★ (18)

    AirbnbBooking

  • 5 Beds, 3 Baths, Giant Kitchen, Full Coffee Bar.

    House · 5 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.6 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +1

    Revenue $2,141ADR $395Occ ≈ 1%5★ (8)

    Airbnb

  • Brewer Escape ~ Modern, newly renovated escape wit

    Cabin · 5 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.8 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +3

    Revenue $51,139ADR $1,056Occ ≈ 13%5★ (3)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Management

Est. revenue

$47,214

NOI

$16,109

Cash flow /mo

$1,342

Cash needed

$884,000

Cash-on-cash (all cash)

1.8%

ROE (yr 1)

4.7%

Cap rate

1.9%

DSCR

—

Year-1 write-off

$189,001

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$60,480

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)$16,109
  • Principal paydown (n/a, cash)$0
  • Appreciation at%$25,500
ROE4.7%

Tax savings aren't counted. Turn on “Count tax savings in returns” above if you can use the losses.

Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$9,443
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,416
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$2,361
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$10,625
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$4,335

Cash needed to close

  • Purchase price (all cash)$850,000
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$34,000
  • Furnishing (conveyed with the sale)$0

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$60,480

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$641,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$189,000 · 29%

Year-1 deduction

$189,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$60,000

Land 25% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $452,000 over 39 years

Based on: ~2,900 sq ft (from beds), built 1972, 5 bd / 3 ba, furnished, listing features (deck, fence, game room, fireplace, flooring types, appliance list).

Try the cost segregation calculator on any property →

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $113,000 in year 1 (18% short-life, $36,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$95,700

  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $12,200 new × 40% good × 2.71 allocation

    $13,200

  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $9,900 new × 40% good × 2.71 allocation

    $10,800

  • Decorative trimdefault

    $5,100 new × 40% good × 2.71 allocation

    $5,500

  • Mirrorsdefault

    $500 new × 40% good × 2.71 allocation

    $500

  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,800 new × 40% good × 2.71 allocation

    $2,000

  • Window coverings (29)default

    $7,300 new × 40% good × 2.71 allocation

    $7,900

  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (100% of floors)listing

    $18,700 new × 40% good × 2.71 allocation

    $20,300

  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $9,500 new × 40% good × 2.71 allocation

    $10,300

  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $5,700 new × 40% good × 2.71 allocation

    $6,200

  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, refrigerator)listing

    $5,700 new × 40% good × 2.71 allocation

    $6,200

  • Furniture conveyed with the sale (used)listing

    $26,500 new × 40% good · out of the price

    $10,600

  • Game-room equipment (used)listing

    $6,000 new × 40% good · out of the price

    $2,400
15-year land improvements$92,800

  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $11,200 new × 50% good × 2.71 allocation

    $15,100

  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $10,700 new × 50% good × 2.71 allocation

    $14,600

  • Patiosdefault

    $2,900 new × 50% good × 2.71 allocation

    $3,900

  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $32,600 new × 50% good × 2.71 allocation

    $44,300

  • Fencinglisting

    $6,000 new × 50% good × 2.71 allocation

    $8,100

  • Gazebo / pergolalisting

    $5,000 new × 50% good × 2.71 allocation

    $6,800
Building, 39-year$452,200

  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $314,600 new × 40% good × 2.71 allocation

    $341,500

  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $32,700 new × 40% good × 2.71 allocation

    $35,500

  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $34,000 new × 40% good × 2.71 allocation

    $36,900

  • HVACdefault

    $32,700 new × 40% good × 2.71 allocation

    $35,500

  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 2.71 allocation

    $2,900

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$95,700$92,800$500$189,000
2$0$0$11,600$11,600
3$0$0$11,600$11,600
4$0$0$11,600$11,600
5$0$0$11,600$11,600
6+$0$0$405,400$405,400
Total$95,700$92,800$452,200$640,700

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California, Georgia and Wisconsin disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.