45776 Falling Springs Rd
Big Bear City, CA 92314
$349,000
2 bd · 2 ba · Listed 24d ago
View on Realtor.com →Year built
1985
Sqft
—
Lot sqft
12,650
HOA / mo
None
Furnished
Yes
List date
2026-09-05T20:44:34.000000Z
Revenue
Annual revenue
$17,890
ADR
$216
Occupancy
23%
Cleaning fees (12 mo)
$3,747
Confidence
Low (50.87), 8 comps
Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)
Big Bear Log Home -view of ski slopes
Cabin · 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.5 mi
Revenue $7,613ADR $240Occ ≈ 9%4.8★ (236)
Near PCT & Epic Off-Roading, Dedicated Workspaces
Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.7 mi
Revenue $22,020ADR $155Occ ≈ 39%5★ (21)
Near PCT & Epic Off-Roading, Dedicated Workspace
Cabin · 1 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 2 · 0.7 mi
Revenue $12,232ADR $71Occ ≈ 47%5★ (5)
| Listing | Size | Revenue (12 mo) | ADR | Occ ≈ | Rating | Distance | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Spacious Family Retreat Game room~Views Relaxation House | 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 | $13,755 | $332 | 11% | 5★ (24) | 0.2 mi | AirbnbBooking |
Baldwin Eagle Lodge Cabin | 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 | $12,705 | $413 | 8% | 4.9★ (142) | 0.3 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Big Bear Log Home -view of ski slopes Cabin | 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 | $7,613 | $240 | 9% | 4.8★ (236) | 0.5 mi | Airbnb |
Sweet Dreams🌟 Cabin✨️ + Mountain View ⛰️ Cabin | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $21,910 | $165 | 36% | 4.8★ (106) | 0.5 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Big Bear Mountain Escape Cabin Cabin | 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 | $19,390 | $400 | 13% | 4.5★ (138) | 0.6 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Near PCT & Epic Off-Roading, Dedicated Workspaces Cabin | 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 | $22,020 | $155 | 39% | 5★ (21) | 0.7 mi | Airbnb |
Near PCT & Epic Off-Roading, Dedicated Workspace Cabin | 1 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 2 | $12,232 | $71 | 47% | 5★ (5) | 0.7 mi | Airbnb |
Modern Golden View Cabin | Massive Yoga Deck & Spa Cabin | 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 | $36,551 | $309 | 32% | 5★ (35) | 0.8 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.
Cash flow calculator
Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium
Est. revenue
$17,890
NOI
$3,062
Cash flow /mo
-$1,625
Cash needed
$101,210
Cash-on-cash
-19.3%
ROE (yr 1)
-6.7%
Cap rate
0.9%
DSCR
0.14
Year-1 write-off
$99,600
Year-1 tax shield @ 32%
$31,872
Year-1 return on equity
- Cash flow (annual)-$19,506
- Principal paydown$2,284
- Appreciation at%$10,470
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown
Annual operating expenses
- Management (20% of revenue)$3,578
- Platform fees (3% of revenue)$537
- Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$895
- Utilities & supplies$4,200
- HOA$0
- Property tax$4,363
- Insurance (STR-rated)$1,780
Cash needed to close
- Down payment (25%)$87,250
- Closing costs (4.0%)$13,960
- Furnishing (conveyed with the sale)$0
Tax savings if the STR loophole applies
- Tax shield @ 32%$31,872
Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).
The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.
Cost segregation estimate
An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.
Depreciable basis
$306,000
Short-life (5/15-yr)
$99,000 · 32%
Year-1 deduction
$100,000
Year-1 tax shield @ 32%
$32,000
Land 13% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $207,000 over 39 years
Based on: ~1,400 sq ft (from beds), built 1985, 2 bd / 2 ba, furnished, listing features (deck, fence, fireplace, flooring types, appliance list).
IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $60,000 in year 1 (19% short-life, $19,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.
- $8,900
Kitchen cabinetsdefault
$8,900 new × 40% good × 2.50 allocation
- $7,300
Kitchen countertopsdefault
$7,300 new × 40% good × 2.50 allocation
- $2,500
Decorative trimdefault
$2,500 new × 40% good × 2.50 allocation
- $300
Mirrorsdefault
$300 new × 40% good × 2.50 allocation
- $900
Shelvingdefault
$900 new × 40% good × 2.50 allocation
- $3,500
Window coverings (14)default
$3,500 new × 40% good × 2.50 allocation
- $3,000
Carpet, vinyl & laminate (33% of floors)listing
$3,000 new × 40% good × 2.50 allocation
- $6,900
Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault
$6,900 new × 40% good × 2.50 allocation
- $4,200
Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault
$4,200 new × 40% good × 2.50 allocation
- $7,100
Appliances (range, microwave, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)listing
$7,100 new × 40% good × 2.50 allocation
- $6,400
Furniture conveyed with the sale (used)listing
$16,000 new × 40% good · out of the price
- $9,700
Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default
$7,800 new × 50% good × 2.50 allocation
- $9,300
Landscaping (typical)default
$7,500 new × 50% good × 2.50 allocation
- $1,700
Patiosdefault
$1,400 new × 50% good × 2.50 allocation
- $19,700
Decks & porches (attached)listing
$15,800 new × 50% good × 2.50 allocation
- $7,500
Fencinglisting
$6,000 new × 50% good × 2.50 allocation
- $152,000
Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault
$151,800 new × 40% good × 2.50 allocation
- $15,700
Building plumbing & fixturesdefault
$15,700 new × 40% good × 2.50 allocation
- $15,000
Building electrical & lightingdefault
$15,000 new × 40% good × 2.50 allocation
- $15,800
HVACdefault
$15,800 new × 40% good × 2.50 allocation
- $6,000
Hardwood & tile floorsdefault
$6,000 new × 40% good × 2.50 allocation
- $2,600
Fireplacelisting
$2,600 new × 40% good × 2.50 allocation
About the property
Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study
| Year | 5-yr | 15-yr | Building | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $50,900 | $48,000 | $700 | $99,600 |
| 2 | $0 | $0 | $5,300 | $5,300 |
| 3 | $0 | $0 | $5,300 | $5,300 |
| 4 | $0 | $0 | $5,300 | $5,300 |
| 5 | $0 | $0 | $5,300 | $5,300 |
| 6+ | $0 | $0 | $185,300 | $185,300 |
| Total | $50,900 | $48,000 | $207,200 | $306,200 |
Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.
Market note
Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.