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Rate 7.86% = 7.11% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Nov 12) + 0.75% investor premium

2160 Mariposa Ln

2160 Mariposa Ln

Big Bear City, CA 92314

$579,000

3 bd · 2 ba · Listed 67d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Negative cash flow

Year built

1980

Sqft

—

Lot sqft

32,730

HOA / mo

None

Furnished

Yes

List date

2026-09-07T19:44:07.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$23,090

ADR

$244

Occupancy

26%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$4,747

Confidence

Low (46.76), 18 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$13,886$18,112$29,738

Median revenue of shown comps: $18,112

  • Beach to Mountains Chalet

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +1

    Revenue $11,981ADR $212Occ ≈ 15%5★ (14)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Starlight Hideaway: Big Bear Log Cabin w/ Hot tub!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.4 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $23,433ADR $342Occ ≈ 19%5★ (45)

    Airbnb

  • STAR WARS family cabin+HOT TUB+EV outlet+GAME R00M

    Cabin · 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.5 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +5

    Revenue $41,852ADR $321Occ ≈ 36%5★ (228)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Summer retreat-Hot Tub, Arcade, Play Room

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.5 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +5

    Revenue $41,395ADR $302Occ ≈ 38%4.8★ (87)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Home w/ SPA, Fire Pit, Yard near Ski Resort & Lake

    Cabin · 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.5 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $30,105ADR $252Occ ≈ 33%4.9★ (108)

    Airbnb

  • Beary Peaceful Fam Retreat; Ping Pong, SPA & AC

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.6 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $43,436ADR $295Occ ≈ 40%4.8★ (75)

    Airbnb

  • Entire Home • 4 Beds • 3 Bedroom Big Bear

    House · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.6 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Fireplace

    Revenue $19,757ADR $327Occ ≈ 17%5★ (135)

    Airbnb

  • Beary Peaceful

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $40,091ADR $249Occ ≈ 44%—

    Booking

  • Big Bear Getaway!

    Chalet · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.6 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $28,638ADR $185Occ ≈ 42%4.7★ (222)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cedar Creek

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $14,454ADR $229Occ ≈ 17%4.6★ (62)

    Delisted

Show 8 more
  • 'The Bear's Den' Cabin: 8 Mi to Snow Summit!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $20,669ADR $336Occ ≈ 17%4.2★ (55)

    Airbnb

  • Peaceful, 3 BD Modern Cabin & Game Room

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $10,578ADR $264Occ ≈ 11%4.9★ (20)

    Booking

  • Gorgeous Newly Remodeled Cabin Minutes from slopes

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $14,251ADR $240Occ ≈ 16%5★ (35)

    Airbnb

  • Lincoln Log Cabin | Renovated | Near Attractions

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.7 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer

    Revenue $13,764ADR $366Occ ≈ 10%4.5★ (8)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Spruce

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $16,467ADR $325Occ ≈ 14%—

    Booking

  • 3BR Starlight Stargaze Haus - EV & Fireplace

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.7 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +2

    Revenue $14,772ADR $246Occ ≈ 16%4.9★ (13)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • One Hundred Pines Equestrian Ranch at Big Bear Lake

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $8,559ADR $295Occ ≈ 8%—

    Booking

  • One Hundred Pines Equestrian Ranch at Big Bear

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.7 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $11,855ADR $312Occ ≈ 10%4.5★ (6)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Management
Term

Rate 7.86% = 7.11% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Nov 12) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$23,090

NOI

$3,103

Cash flow /mo

-$2,886

Cash needed

$167,910

Cash-on-cash

-20.6%

ROE (yr 1)

-8.1%

Cap rate

0.5%

DSCR

0.08

Year-1 write-off

$116,652

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$37,329

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$34,626
  • Principal paydown$3,730
  • Appreciation at%$17,370
ROE-8.1%

Tax savings aren't counted. Turn on “Count tax savings in returns” above if you can use the losses.

Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$4,618
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$693
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,155
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$7,238
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$2,953

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$144,750
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$23,160
  • Furnishing (conveyed with the sale)$0

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$37,329

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$371,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$116,000 · 31%

Year-1 deduction

$117,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$37,000

Land 36% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $255,000 over 39 years

Based on: ~1,900 sq ft (from beds), built 1980, 3 bd / 2 ba, furnished, listing features (deck, fence, fireplace, flooring types, appliance list).

Try the cost segregation calculator on any property →

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $70,000 in year 1 (19% short-life, $23,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$61,000
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $10,000 new × 40% good × 2.33 allocation

    $9,300
  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $8,200 new × 40% good × 2.33 allocation

    $7,600
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $3,300 new × 40% good × 2.33 allocation

    $3,100
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $300 new × 40% good × 2.33 allocation

    $300
  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,200 new × 40% good × 2.33 allocation

    $1,100
  • Window coverings (19)default

    $4,800 new × 40% good × 2.33 allocation

    $4,400
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (100% of floors)listing

    $12,200 new × 40% good × 2.33 allocation

    $11,400
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $7,800 new × 40% good × 2.33 allocation

    $7,200
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,700 new × 40% good × 2.33 allocation

    $4,400
  • Appliances (dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, washer)listing

    $4,600 new × 40% good × 2.33 allocation

    $4,300
  • Furniture conveyed with the sale (used)listing

    $19,500 new × 40% good · out of the price

    $7,800
15-year land improvements$54,800
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $9,000 new × 50% good × 2.33 allocation

    $10,500
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $8,700 new × 50% good × 2.33 allocation

    $10,100
  • Patiosdefault

    $1,900 new × 50% good × 2.33 allocation

    $2,200
  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $21,400 new × 50% good × 2.33 allocation

    $25,000
  • Fencinglisting

    $6,000 new × 50% good × 2.33 allocation

    $7,000
Building, 39-year$254,800
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $206,100 new × 40% good × 2.33 allocation

    $192,500
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $21,400 new × 40% good × 2.33 allocation

    $20,000
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $21,400 new × 40% good × 2.33 allocation

    $19,900
  • HVACdefault

    $21,400 new × 40% good × 2.33 allocation

    $20,000
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 2.33 allocation

    $2,500

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$61,000$54,800$800$116,700
2$0$0$6,500$6,500
3$0$0$6,500$6,500
4$0$0$6,500$6,500
5$0$0$6,500$6,500
6+$0$0$227,900$227,900
Total$61,000$54,800$254,800$370,700

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California, Georgia and Wisconsin disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.