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Rate 8.03% = 7.28% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Oct 1) + 0.75% investor premium

2013 Manzanita Ln

2013 Manzanita Ln

Big Bear City, CA 92314

$275,000

2 bd · 1 ba · Listed 1d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Negative cash flow

Year built

1980

Sqft

—

Lot sqft

4,750

HOA / mo

None

Furnished

Yes

List date

2026-10-07T16:07:21.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$20,445

ADR

$148

Occupancy

38%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$4,395

Confidence

Low (45.16), 37 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$10,835$18,692$27,948

Median revenue of shown comps: $19,926

  • Green Bear Lodge -Sauna- Hot Tub-

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 377 ft

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +6

    Revenue $27,948ADR $81Occ ≈ 95%4.8★ (59)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Large 2BR/2BA Next to Forest with AC in rooms

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 453 ft

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $26,161ADR $136Occ ≈ 53%4.9★ (75)

    Airbnb

  • “Oktoberfest” Cozy fp, pets, new spa, EV

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $9,748ADR $316Occ ≈ 8%5★ (4)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cabin Hideaway w/ Fireplace & Deck

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $10,553ADR $191Occ ≈ 15%4.8★ (12)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Cozy Family Cabin w/ Fenced Yard & Fireplace

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $26,440ADR $305Occ ≈ 24%5★ (7)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • BigBear Cabin w/ Hot Tub + Fire Pit, Hiking Trails

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +4

    Revenue $27,985ADR $119Occ ≈ 64%4.9★ (34)

    Airbnb

  • A place to rest

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $1,458ADR $131Occ ≈ 3%5★ (9)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The Big Bear Den : Cozy Cabin in the Mountains

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $22,902ADR $206Occ ≈ 30%4.9★ (74)

    Airbnb

  • Mahoga Bear Tavern

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $3,760ADR $235Occ ≈ 4%4.7★ (18)

    Delisted

  • Mountain Fun! Cabin w/ Yard & Fireplace

    House · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $23,785ADR $161Occ ≈ 40%5★ (7)

    AirbnbBooking

Show 26 more
  • Harvest Haven

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $330ADR $330Occ ≈ 0%4.8★ (21)

    Airbnb

  • Cozy Big Bear Cabin w/ Mountain Views • Firepit

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $18,692ADR $178Occ ≈ 29%5★ (58)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cozy Deer Cabin – Hot Tub, Arcade & Fire Pit

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +5

    Revenue $27,726ADR $233Occ ≈ 33%4.9★ (190)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Couple’sRetreat:HotTub+FirePitNights+EV +Gameroom

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $44,888ADR $631Occ ≈ 19%—

    Airbnb

  • Cozy fully fenced home, dog-friendly, no fee • 6 beds • game room

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $40,305ADR $310Occ ≈ 36%5★ (58)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Th3 Bears Den

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $16,539ADR $289Occ ≈ 16%4.8★ (48)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Paws and Chill Cabin

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +2

    Revenue $16,212ADR $221Occ ≈ 20%4.8★ (151)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cute & Cozy Dog Friendly 2BD 1BA w/Mountain View's

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $29,458ADR $148Occ ≈ 55%4.8★ (191)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Comfy Modern Big Bear Cabin

    House · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $28,239ADR $189Occ ≈ 41%4.8★ (63)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Hibernation station Outdoor Area & Pet Friendly!

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $4,226ADR $102Occ ≈ 11%—

    Booking

  • Elevated vibes

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.4 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $23,466ADR $277Occ ≈ 23%5★ (6)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Big Bear Adventure Cabin Near Snow Play & Village

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.5 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +1

    Revenue $21,354ADR $162Occ ≈ 36%4.9★ (22)

    Airbnb

  • Little Cabin that is cozy in Big Bear

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.5 mi

    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +4

    Revenue $17,215ADR $161Occ ≈ 29%4.9★ (33)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cozy Big Bear Cabin w/ Fireplace, BBQ, Fenced Yard

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.5 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Fireplace
    • +1

    Revenue $10,835ADR $233Occ ≈ 13%5★ (8)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Fireplace, Smart TV, Fenced Yard, BBQ

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $9,092ADR $206Occ ≈ 12%4.3★ (6)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Zen Cottage with Garden in Big Bear

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $17,071ADR $149Occ ≈ 31%4.7★ (318)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Hibernation station + Outdoor Area & Pet Friendly!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.5 mi

    • Pets OK
    • Wifi

    Revenue $18,534ADR $127Occ ≈ 40%5★ (3)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Residential Serrano Pines Cabin in Big Bear!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.5 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $33,231ADR $140Occ ≈ 65%5★ (208)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cozy Cabin Fever • Hot Tub + Fire Pit | Sleeps 6

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.5 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +4

    Revenue $14,271ADR $238Occ ≈ 16%4.9★ (16)

    Airbnb

  • Fenced yard/ walking distance to dog park

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.5 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Washer
    • +1

    Revenue $8,032ADR $421Occ ≈ 5%4.8★ (62)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Large Fenced Yard w/ Swing Set + Fire Pit

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.6 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $18,251ADR $287Occ ≈ 17%4.5★ (31)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Pack Light! Baby & Toddler Ready | Arcade

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $41,469ADR $209Occ ≈ 54%5★ (175)

    Delisted

  • Cozy Cottage

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.6 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +1

    Revenue $21,160ADR $178Occ ≈ 33%5★ (94)

    Airbnb

  • Rustic Cabin | Fireplace, Patios & Ski Trolley

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.7 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +1

    Revenue $9,542ADR $189Occ ≈ 14%5★ (14)

    Airbnb

  • Moonlit Bear Hut - A Cozy Gambrel A-Frame Cabin

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.7 mi

    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $28,634ADR $195Occ ≈ 40%4.8★ (249)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Serene Cabin Surrounded by the National Forest

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.8 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $28,203ADR $245Occ ≈ 32%4.9★ (294)

    AirbnbVrbo

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Management
Term

Rate 8.03% = 7.28% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Oct 1) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$20,445

NOI

$6,093

Cash flow /mo

-$1,010

Cash needed

$79,750

Cash-on-cash

-15.2%

ROE (yr 1)

-2.7%

Cap rate

2.2%

DSCR

0.33

Year-1 write-off

$72,310

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$23,139

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$12,120
  • Principal paydown$1,713
  • Appreciation at%$8,250
ROE-2.7%

Tax savings aren't counted. Turn on “Count tax savings in returns” above if you can use the losses.

Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$4,089
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$613
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,022
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$3,764
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$1,403

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$68,750
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$11,000
  • Furnishing (conveyed with the sale)$0

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$23,139

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$221,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$72,000 · 33%

Year-1 deduction

$72,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$23,000

Land 20% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $149,000 over 39 years

Based on: ~1,400 sq ft (from beds), built 1980, 2 bd / 1 ba, furnished, listing features (deck, fireplace, flooring types, appliance list).

Try the cost segregation calculator on any property →

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $43,000 in year 1 (19% short-life, $14,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$42,200
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $8,900 new × 40% good × 1.85 allocation

    $6,600
  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $7,300 new × 40% good × 1.85 allocation

    $5,400
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $2,500 new × 40% good × 1.85 allocation

    $1,800
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $200 new × 40% good × 1.85 allocation

    $100
  • Shelvingdefault

    $900 new × 40% good × 1.85 allocation

    $700
  • Window coverings (14)default

    $3,500 new × 40% good × 1.85 allocation

    $2,600
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (100% of floors)listing

    $9,000 new × 40% good × 1.85 allocation

    $6,700
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $6,900 new × 40% good × 1.85 allocation

    $5,100
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,200 new × 40% good × 1.85 allocation

    $3,100
  • Appliances (range, refrigerator, washer)listing

    $5,000 new × 40% good × 1.85 allocation

    $3,700
  • Furniture conveyed with the sale (used)listing

    $16,000 new × 40% good · out of the price

    $6,400
15-year land improvements$30,000
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $7,800 new × 50% good × 1.85 allocation

    $7,200
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $7,500 new × 50% good × 1.85 allocation

    $6,900
  • Patiosdefault

    $1,400 new × 50% good × 1.85 allocation

    $1,300
  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $15,800 new × 50% good × 1.85 allocation

    $14,600
Building, 39-year$149,100
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $151,900 new × 40% good × 1.85 allocation

    $112,700
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $15,700 new × 40% good × 1.85 allocation

    $11,700
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $15,000 new × 40% good × 1.85 allocation

    $11,100
  • HVACdefault

    $15,800 new × 40% good × 1.85 allocation

    $11,700
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 1.85 allocation

    $2,000

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$42,200$30,000$200$72,300
2$0$0$3,800$3,800
3$0$0$3,800$3,800
4$0$0$3,800$3,800
5$0$0$3,800$3,800
6+$0$0$133,700$133,700
Total$42,200$30,000$149,100$221,300

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California, Georgia and Wisconsin disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.