1155 Willow Ln Lot 2
Big Bear City, CA 92314
$990,000
3 bd · 3 ba · Listed 5d ago
View on Realtor.com →Year built
2003
Sqft
—
Lot sqft
56,192
HOA / mo
None
Furnished
Yes
List date
2026-09-24T19:05:52.000000Z
Revenue
Annual revenue
$21,184
ADR
$239
Occupancy
24%
Cleaning fees (12 mo)
$4,193
Confidence
Low (48.73), 20 comps
Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)
Starlight Hideaway: Big Bear Log Cabin w/ Hot tub!
Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi
Revenue $23,433ADR $342Occ ≈ 19%5★ (45)
Entire Home • 4 Beds • 3 Bedroom Big Bear
House · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.4 mi
Revenue $19,757ADR $327Occ ≈ 17%5★ (135)
| Listing | Size | Revenue (12 mo) | ADR | Occ ≈ | Rating | Distance | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Beach to Mountains Chalet Cabin | 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 | $11,981 | $212 | 15% | 5★ (14) | 0.1 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Starlight Hideaway: Big Bear Log Cabin w/ Hot tub! Cabin | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $23,433 | $342 | 19% | 5★ (45) | 0.1 mi | Airbnb |
'The Bear's Den' Cabin: 8 Mi to Snow Summit! Cabin | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $20,669 | $336 | 17% | 4.2★ (55) | 0.3 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Peaceful, 3 BD Modern Cabin & Game Room Cabin | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 | $10,578 | $264 | 11% | 4.9★ (20) | 0.3 mi | AirbnbBooking |
Gorgeous Newly Remodeled Cabin Minutes from slopes House | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $14,251 | $240 | 16% | 5★ (35) | 0.4 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Big Bear Getaway! Chalet | 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 | $28,638 | $185 | 42% | 4.7★ (222) | 0.4 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Cedar Creek House | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $14,454 | $229 | 17% | 4.6★ (62) | 0.4 mi | Airbnb |
Entire Home • 4 Beds • 3 Bedroom Big Bear House | 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 7 | $19,757 | $327 | 17% | 5★ (135) | 0.4 mi | Airbnb |
Lincoln Log Cabin | Renovated | Near Attractions House | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $13,764 | $366 | 10% | 4.5★ (8) | 0.4 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Spruce Vacation home | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 | $16,467 | $325 | 14% | — | 0.4 mi | Booking |
Show all 20 comps
Beary Peaceful Fam Retreat; Ping Pong, SPA & AC
Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.5 mi
Revenue $43,436ADR $295Occ ≈ 40%4.8★ (75)
Beary Peaceful
Vacation home · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.5 mi
Revenue $40,091ADR $249Occ ≈ 44%—
One Hundred Pines Equestrian Ranch at Big Bear Lake
Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.5 mi
Revenue $8,559ADR $295Occ ≈ 8%—
Whistling Birds ~ EV Charge
House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.5 mi
Revenue $28,323ADR $236Occ ≈ 33%5★ (38)
Mama Bear's Manor - Luxury Spa - No Cleaning Fee
Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.6 mi
Revenue $32,049ADR $509Occ ≈ 17%4.9★ (55)
| Listing | Size | Revenue (12 mo) | ADR | Occ ≈ | Rating | Distance | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Summer retreat-Hot Tub, Arcade, Play Room Cabin | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 | $41,395 | $302 | 38% | 4.8★ (87) | 0.4 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
3BR Starlight Stargaze Haus - EV & Fireplace Cabin | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $14,772 | $246 | 16% | 4.9★ (13) | 0.5 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Beary Peaceful Fam Retreat; Ping Pong, SPA & AC Cabin | 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 | $43,436 | $295 | 40% | 4.8★ (75) | 0.5 mi | Airbnb |
Beary Peaceful Vacation home | 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 | $40,091 | $249 | 44% | — | 0.5 mi | Booking |
One Hundred Pines Equestrian Ranch at Big Bear Lake Vacation home | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 | $8,559 | $295 | 8% | — | 0.5 mi | Booking |
One Hundred Pines Equestrian Ranch at Big Bear Cabin | 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 6 | $11,855 | $312 | 10% | 4.5★ (6) | 0.5 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Whistling Birds ~ EV Charge House | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $28,323 | $236 | 33% | 5★ (38) | 0.5 mi | Airbnb |
Mama Bear's Manor - Luxury Spa - No Cleaning Fee Cabin | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 | $32,049 | $509 | 17% | 4.9★ (55) | 0.6 mi | Airbnb |
A Frame Escape ! Fully fenced! Cabin | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $20,640 | $134 | 42% | 4.5★ (165) | 0.6 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Bluebird Haven Cabin | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $10,517 | $272 | 11% | 5★ (19) | 0.6 mi | Airbnb |
Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.
Cash flow calculator
Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium
Est. revenue
$21,184
NOI
-$4,887
Cash flow /mo
-$5,742
Cash needed
$287,100
Cash-on-cash
-24.0%
ROE (yr 1)
-11.4%
Cap rate
-0.5%
DSCR
-0.08
Year-1 write-off
$195,294
Year-1 tax shield @ 32%
$62,494
Year-1 return on equity
- Cash flow (annual)-$68,904
- Principal paydown$6,478
- Appreciation at%$29,700
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown
Annual operating expenses
- Management (20% of revenue)$4,237
- Platform fees (3% of revenue)$636
- Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,059
- Utilities & supplies$4,200
- HOA$0
- Property tax$12,375
- Insurance (STR-rated)$5,049
Cash needed to close
- Down payment (25%)$247,500
- Closing costs (4.0%)$39,600
- Furnishing (conveyed with the sale)$0
Tax savings if the STR loophole applies
- Tax shield @ 32%$62,494
Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).
The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.
Cost segregation estimate
An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.
Depreciable basis
$803,000
Short-life (5/15-yr)
$193,000 · 24%
Year-1 deduction
$195,000
Year-1 tax shield @ 32%
$62,000
Land 19% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $610,000 over 39 years
Based on: ~1,900 sq ft (from beds), built 2003, 3 bd / 3 ba, furnished, listing features (deck, patio, fireplace, stone counters, flooring types, appliance list).
IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $118,000 in year 1 (14% short-life, $38,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.
- $15,000
Kitchen cabinetsdefault
$10,000 new × 40% good × 3.76 allocation
- $15,300
Kitchen countertops (stone)listing
$10,200 new × 40% good × 3.76 allocation
- $5,000
Decorative trimdefault
$3,300 new × 40% good × 3.76 allocation
- $700
Mirrorsdefault
$500 new × 40% good × 3.76 allocation
- $1,800
Shelvingdefault
$1,200 new × 40% good × 3.76 allocation
- $7,100
Window coverings (19)default
$4,800 new × 40% good × 3.76 allocation
- $9,200
Carpet, vinyl & laminate (50% of floors)listing
$6,100 new × 40% good × 3.76 allocation
- $15,800
Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault
$7,800 new × 54% good × 3.76 allocation
- $9,500
Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault
$4,700 new × 54% good × 3.76 allocation
- $12,200
Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)listing
$8,100 new × 40% good × 3.76 allocation
- $7,800
Furniture conveyed with the sale (used)listing
$19,500 new × 40% good · out of the price
- $21,200
Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default
$11,300 new × 50% good × 3.76 allocation
- $16,400
Landscaping (typical)default
$8,700 new × 50% good × 3.76 allocation
- $16,100
Patioslisting
$8,600 new × 50% good × 3.76 allocation
- $40,200
Decks & porches (attached)listing
$21,400 new × 50% good × 3.76 allocation
- $477,800
Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault
$206,000 new × 62% good × 3.76 allocation
- $43,400
Building plumbing & fixturesdefault
$21,400 new × 54% good × 3.76 allocation
- $43,400
Building electrical & lightingdefault
$21,400 new × 54% good × 3.76 allocation
- $32,200
HVACdefault
$21,400 new × 40% good × 3.76 allocation
- $9,200
Hardwood & tile floorsdefault
$6,100 new × 40% good × 3.76 allocation
- $4,000
Fireplacelisting
$2,600 new × 40% good × 3.76 allocation
About the property
Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study
| Year | 5-yr | 15-yr | Building | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $99,400 | $93,900 | $2,000 | $195,300 |
| 2 | $0 | $0 | $15,600 | $15,600 |
| 3 | $0 | $0 | $15,600 | $15,600 |
| 4 | $0 | $0 | $15,600 | $15,600 |
| 5 | $0 | $0 | $15,600 | $15,600 |
| 6+ | $0 | $0 | $545,500 | $545,500 |
| Total | $99,400 | $93,900 | $610,000 | $803,400 |
The building's share of the price ($796,000) is 3.8x our depreciated replacement cost of the home ($211,000). The IRS guide treats a gap this size as a reason to review the land share: if land is worth more than the county ratio says, the basis and the write-off are smaller.
Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.
Market note
Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.