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Rate 8.07% = 7.32% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Oct 22) + 0.75% investor premium

1263 Minton Dr

1263 Minton Dr

Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

$499,888

3 bd · 2 ba · 1,428 sqft · Listed 1d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

2005

Sqft

1,428

Lot sqft

7,501

HOA / mo

$0

Furnished

No

List date

2026-10-27T23:17:38.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$33,810

ADR

$277

Occupancy

33%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$6,804

Confidence

Low (38.96), 48 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$17,519$31,700$43,121

Median revenue of shown comps: $31,053

  • Minton Heaven Cabin | Spa · Foosball · Deck

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 26 ft

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +1

    Revenue $21,415ADR $362Occ ≈ 16%4.8★ (24)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Luna Pines - Spa, A/C Game Rm, Fire Pit & EV Chrg

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 112 ft

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +6

    Revenue $45,226ADR $342Occ ≈ 36%5★ (50)

    Airbnb

  • Play All Day! Game Room, Swing Set & Hot Tub Cabin

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 154 ft

    Revenue $1,366ADR $418Occ ≈ 1%—

    AirbnbBooking

  • Bear Mtn View Chalet - Spa & Game Room

    Chalet · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 213 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +5

    Revenue $32,347ADR $501Occ ≈ 18%5★ (173)

    Airbnb

  • Cheerful 3-bedroom cabin with pool table and games

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 230 ft

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $18,482ADR $272Occ ≈ 19%4.8★ (54)

    Airbnb

  • Silver Bear Lodge. Near ski areas and zoo.

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 243 ft

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +1

    Revenue $20,828ADR $335Occ ≈ 17%5★ (27)

    Airbnb

  • BEAUTIFUL CABIN WITH HOT TUB AND INCREDIBLE VIEWS

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 289 ft

    Revenue $41,224ADR $369Occ ≈ 31%4.8★ (269)

    Delisted

  • Moonridge Chalet - amazing A frame home, hot tub.

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 315 ft

    Revenue $16,800ADR $589Occ ≈ 8%5★ (3)

    Airbnb

  • New! Bearadise ~ Moonridge Serenade

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 315 ft

    Revenue $37,946ADR $0Occ ≈ —4.8★ (62)

    Delisted

  • HOT TUB! 5 STAR LOG HOME Tree Top & Slope View TTL

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 358 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +4

    Revenue $18,889ADR $741Occ ≈ 7%4.5★ (67)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

Show 39 more
  • Geodesic Dome Home w/ Hot Tub & Yard in Big Bear!

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 364 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +4

    Revenue $13,826ADR $368Occ ≈ 10%4.8★ (7)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Bearadise Log Cabin w/ Forest Winter Views & Charm

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 387 ft

    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +4

    Revenue $43,300ADR $303Occ ≈ 39%5★ (230)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Onyx + Pine | A-Frame Cabin w/ Hot Tub & Game Loft

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 410 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +5

    Revenue $75,842ADR $314Occ ≈ 66%5★ (72)

    Airbnb

  • Black Oak Cabin #1977 by Big Bear Vacations

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 459 ft

    Revenue $36,051ADR $586Occ ≈ 17%5★ (1)

    Booking

  • Moonridge Retreat Hot Tub Foosball Families!

    Chalet · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 469 ft

    Revenue $38,994ADR $245Occ ≈ 44%4.8★ (380)

    Delisted

  • Black Oak Cabin Retreat Big Bear w/ Hot Tub

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 469 ft

    Revenue $34,214ADR $343Occ ≈ 27%4.4★ (61)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Hexagon Mountain View & Spa

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 479 ft

    Revenue $11,620ADR $447Occ ≈ 7%4.7★ (3)

    Airbnb

  • Big Bear Cabin w/ Hot Tub < 3 Mi to Skiing!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 482 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $18,337ADR $366Occ ≈ 14%4.5★ (21)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Rest N Relax Inn - Beautiful chalet-style cabin features dramatic forest and slope views!

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 486 ft

    Revenue $48,912ADR $499Occ ≈ 27%5★ (1)

    Booking

  • Foosball + Hot Tub + Near Slopes

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 509 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $19,053ADR $374Occ ≈ 14%4.5★ (2)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Moonridge Chalet - amazing A frame home for a couples retreat

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 512 ft

    Revenue $16,588ADR $684Occ ≈ 7%—

    Delisted

  • Snowy Evening Lodge - Deck Treetop Views & Firepit

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 518 ft

    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +4

    Revenue $33,603ADR $283Occ ≈ 33%4.9★ (68)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Big Bear Wilderness Retreat + Spa + Hiking Trail

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $28,083ADR $537Occ ≈ 14%5★ (1)

    Airbnb

  • Hideaway

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +1

    Revenue $2,079ADR $259Occ ≈ 2%5★ (2)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • New! Bearadise ~ Stylish Mountain Retreat

    Villa · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +1

    Revenue $69,736ADR $373Occ ≈ 51%4.7★ (85)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Luxury Scandinavian Cabin | Hot Tub + Fire Pit

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $46,336ADR $456Occ ≈ 28%4.8★ (51)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Modern Mountain Cabin | Prime Location | Sleeps 8

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $10,605ADR $478Occ ≈ 6%4.9★ (8)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cozy Cabin: Spa, Billiards, & Room for Whole Crew!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $31,053ADR $324Occ ≈ 26%5★ (4)

    Delisted

  • Bear Claw Inn - A place to enjoy peace with your family! Comes with a Foosball Table and more!

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $36,494ADR $912Occ ≈ 11%4.7★ (4)

    Booking

  • Minton Grove Cabin + Fireplace & EV Charger!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    • Wifi
    • Washer

    Revenue $5,293ADR $112Occ ≈ 13%—

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Luxury Log Cabin | Ski Views | Hot Tub & Fireplace

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • +4

    Revenue $61,763ADR $305Occ ≈ 55%5★ (217)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Grizzly Moonridge Retreat | Hot Tub + In Law Suite

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +4

    Revenue $28,085ADR $315Occ ≈ 24%4.8★ (174)

    Airbnb

  • Villa Grove | 3 Mi to Bear Mtn, Hot Tub & Games

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +4

    Revenue $55,742ADR $313Occ ≈ 49%4.8★ (155)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Hot Tub Insane Views 7 beds Snow Ready

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +3

    Revenue $45,540ADR $273Occ ≈ 46%4.8★ (48)

    Airbnb

  • The Wolf House-Best Mountain View’s.

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $17,246ADR $299Occ ≈ 16%4.8★ (10)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Lone Wolf Lodge - W/ Beautiful Mountain View’s

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +1

    Revenue $1,199ADR $233Occ ≈ 1%—

    Airbnb

  • Heavenly Retreat: Billiards, Glimpse of Lake, BBQ

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +4

    Revenue $42,584ADR $378Occ ≈ 31%4.9★ (100)

    Airbnb

  • Hillside Cedar Chalet | Hot Tub - 7 Min to Village

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $34,104ADR $384Occ ≈ 24%4.8★ (90)

    Airbnb

  • Stylish & Cozy "Nut House" | Great & Game Rm | Spa

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +4

    Revenue $44,478ADR $290Occ ≈ 42%5★ (38)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Tree Top Villa:Decks!Pool Table! Foosball!

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Fireplace
    • +1

    Revenue $29,713ADR $306Occ ≈ 27%4.7★ (45)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Renovated Moonridge Cabin w/ Hot Tub & Lake Views!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $18,741ADR $208Occ ≈ 25%4.5★ (9)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Upscale cabin, mini-split AC, spa, pool table

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $75,835ADR $300Occ ≈ 69%5★ (372)

    Airbnb

  • Gentle Grizzly Getaway:Views of Bear Mtn!

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +1

    Revenue $44,350ADR $324Occ ≈ 38%4.7★ (77)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Upper Moonridge + Fire Pit | Pet Friendly

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $28,696ADR $218Occ ≈ 36%5★ (3)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Moonlight Memories | Jacuzzi, Theatre, Dogs Okay!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $36,258ADR $416Occ ≈ 24%4.5★ (25)

    Airbnb

  • Big Bear Lake Cabin W/Spa Mountain view

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $8,505ADR $211Occ ≈ 11%4.5★ (7)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • New! Bearadise ~ Wooded Mountain Retreat

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $2,755ADR $162Occ ≈ 5%5★ (2)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Starlight Sanctuary | Wow Views, AC, Near Slopes!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    • A/C
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $70,513ADR $287Occ ≈ 67%4.8★ (56)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Smart TV, BBQ, Deck, Walk to Slopes

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $15,532ADR $317Occ ≈ 13%4.7★ (3)

    AirbnbBooking

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Management
Term

Rate 8.07% = 7.32% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Oct 22) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$33,810

NOI

$12,095

Cash flow /mo

-$1,761

Cash needed

$164,468

Cash-on-cash

-12.9%

ROE (yr 1)

-1.9%

Cap rate

2.4%

DSCR

0.36

Year-1 write-off

$114,556

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$36,658

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$21,137
  • Principal paydown$3,089
  • Appreciation at%$14,997
ROE-1.9%

Tax savings aren't counted. Turn on “Count tax savings in returns” above if you can use the losses.

Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$6,762
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,014
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,691
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$6,249
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$2,549

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$124,972
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$19,996
  • Furnishing (bought new)$19,500

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$36,658

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$387,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$95,000 · 24%

Year-1 deduction

$115,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$37,000

Land 23% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $292,000 over 39 years · new furniture $20,000

Based on: 1,428 sq ft, built 2005, 3 bd / 2 ba, unfurnished, listing features (hot tub, deck, patio, fireplace, flooring types, appliance list).

Try the cost segregation calculator on any property →

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $78,000 in year 1 (15% short-life, $25,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$71,000
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $8,900 new × 40% good × 2.28 allocation

    $8,200
  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $7,300 new × 40% good × 2.28 allocation

    $6,700
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $2,500 new × 40% good × 2.28 allocation

    $2,300
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $300 new × 40% good × 2.28 allocation

    $300
  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,200 new × 40% good × 2.28 allocation

    $1,100
  • Window coverings (14)default

    $3,500 new × 40% good × 2.28 allocation

    $3,200
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (50% of floors)listing

    $4,600 new × 40% good × 2.28 allocation

    $4,200
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $6,900 new × 58% good × 2.28 allocation

    $9,200
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,200 new × 58% good × 2.28 allocation

    $5,600
  • Appliances (range, microwave, disposal)listing

    $2,900 new × 40% good × 2.28 allocation

    $2,600
  • Hot tub (freestanding)listing

    $9,000 new × 40% good × 2.28 allocation

    $8,200
  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $19,500 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $19,500
15-year land improvements$43,200
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)listing

    $7,800 new × 50% good × 2.28 allocation

    $8,900
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $7,500 new × 50% good × 2.28 allocation

    $8,600
  • Patioslisting

    $6,400 new × 50% good × 2.28 allocation

    $7,300
  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $16,100 new × 50% good × 2.28 allocation

    $18,300
Building, 39-year$292,300
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $154,500 new × 65% good × 2.28 allocation

    $229,400
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $16,000 new × 58% good × 2.28 allocation

    $21,200
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $15,400 new × 58% good × 2.28 allocation

    $20,400
  • HVACdefault

    $16,100 new × 40% good × 2.28 allocation

    $14,700
  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $4,600 new × 40% good × 2.28 allocation

    $4,200
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 2.28 allocation

    $2,400

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$71,000$43,200$300$114,600
2$0$0$7,500$7,500
3$0$0$7,500$7,500
4$0$0$7,500$7,500
5$0$0$7,500$7,500
6+$0$0$262,000$262,000
Total$71,000$43,200$292,300$406,500

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California, Georgia and Wisconsin disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.