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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

572 Ponderosa Dr

572 Ponderosa Dr

Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

$775,000

4 bd · 3 ba · 2,130 sqft · Listed 1d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Negative cash flow

Year built

1979

Sqft

2,130

Lot sqft

7,700

HOA / mo

None

Furnished

Yes

List date

2026-09-29T16:44:58.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$62,435

ADR

$534

Occupancy

32%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$9,577

Confidence

Low (41.67), 50 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$21,435$53,154$73,237
  • Summit Mountain Lodge

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 16 ft

    Revenue $30,042ADR $1,022Occ ≈ 8%4.6★ (5)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Walk to Snow Summit!Game Room!Pet Friendly!HOTTUB!

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 259 ft

    Revenue $42,462ADR $385Occ ≈ 30%4.7★ (40)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Walk to Snow Summit | Hot Tub + Pool Table

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $65,441ADR $579Occ ≈ 31%4.5★ (87)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Moose Creek Chalet-1237 by Big Bear Vacations

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $77,646ADR $897Occ ≈ 24%3.5★ (2)

    Booking

  • Incredible New Lodge walking distance to Snow Summ

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $32,258ADR $578Occ ≈ 15%4.5★ (61)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Walk to Snow Summit | New Spa | Arcade | Fire Pit

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $8,112ADR $333Occ ≈ 7%5★ (8)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Pet-friendly ski hausGame roomBBQBy Snow Summit

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $64,289ADR $604Occ ≈ 29%4.5★ (22)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Walk to Summit | Luxury 4B | Sleeps 14 | AC | EV

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 14 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $72,725ADR $789Occ ≈ 25%5★ (1)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Amazing 4-bedroom cabin walking distance to Snow Summit. Pool table and hot tub.

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $1,422ADR $421Occ ≈ 1%—

    Vrbo

  • Near Lake & Ski Resort | Hot Tub | Wi-Fi | Games

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $75,127ADR $542Occ ≈ 38%4.4★ (68)

    Airbnb

Show all 50 comps
  • Snow Summit Dome Home. Walk to Snow Summit. HotTub

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $48,951ADR $596Occ ≈ 23%4.7★ (51)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Walk to Snow Summit | Luxury 4BR | Hot Tub | AC

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 14 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $73,241ADR $785Occ ≈ 26%5★ (1)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • On Snow Summit - Perfect location for Slopes

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 14 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $110,827ADR $961Occ ≈ 32%5★ (2)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Moose-in' Around ~ Walk to Slopes Mountain Home with Private Hot Tub, Ski Locker & Playground

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $57,077ADR $813Occ ≈ 19%—

    Booking

  • Walk to Snow Summit! Hot Tub! Game Room! Backyard!

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $52,943ADR $331Occ ≈ 44%4.7★ (79)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Brownie Bear Cabin w/ Spa, Walk to Snow Summit

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $73,226ADR $591Occ ≈ 34%5★ (170)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Family Time @ Breckenridge

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $20,249ADR $318Occ ≈ 17%5★ (164)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Winter Park Cabin: Spacious + Games + Spa + Family

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $93,184ADR $570Occ ≈ 45%5★ (100)

    Airbnb

  • Walk to Snow Summit | Game Room | Pets

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $31,489ADR $387Occ ≈ 22%—

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Pet-friendly home with private pool, foosball, doggy door, game room + more!

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $14,075ADR $456Occ ≈ 8%4.5★ (4)

    Vrbo

  • Pet-friendly home with private pool, foosball, doggy door, game room + more!

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $20,658ADR $493Occ ≈ 11%—

    Vrbo

  • Winterpark Cabin | Hot Tub + Game Room | Near Snow

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $56,239ADR $549Occ ≈ 28%4.9★ (28)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Summit Lake Haus | Game Room, Close to Snow Summit

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $5,028ADR $326Occ ≈ 4%5★ (2)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Walk to Snow Summit-Hot Tub-AC-EV Charger-Fire Pit

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $13,451ADR $349Occ ≈ 11%5★ (2)

    Airbnb

  • Ski Snow Summit, pvt HotTub, Pets Free Tesla Charg

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $15,927ADR $324Occ ≈ 13%4.8★ (47)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Walk to Snow Summit, Hot Tub, AC, Tesla Charger & Fire Pit, Evergreen Cabin

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $58,403ADR $1,068Occ ≈ 15%4.8★ (4)

    Vrbo

  • Dog-friendly ski haven with game room, BBQ, short walk to Snow Summit ski resort

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $19,876ADR $544Occ ≈ 10%—

    Vrbo

  • Evergreen Retreat- A walk to Snow Summit W/Spa!

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $49,621ADR $1,179Occ ≈ 12%4.7★ (89)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Lazy Bear Lodge by AvantStay | Mins to Snow Summit

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $83,376ADR $0Occ ≈ —5★ (68)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Huge Chalet below Snow Summit. Walk/MTB to lifts

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $45,364ADR $386Occ ≈ 32%4.9★ (245)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • A 4 Bedroom, Modern Mountain Home

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $40,834ADR $463Occ ≈ 24%5★ (119)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Central Air Conditioning • Spa • Fire Pit

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $85,315ADR $528Occ ≈ 44%5★ (31)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Winterset Inn: Shuffleboard!Pool Table!Hot Tub!

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 13 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $76,062ADR $616Occ ≈ 34%4.5★ (29)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Big Bear Lodge on St Anton

    House · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 13 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $67,807ADR $738Occ ≈ 25%4.7★ (3)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Big Bear St Anton | Hot Tub

    House · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 13 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $100,257ADR $1,667Occ ≈ 16%4.9★ (8)

    Airbnb

  • Arlberg Village Haus #2571

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 13 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $108,028ADR $973Occ ≈ 30%5★ (1)

    Booking

  • Arlberg Village Haus Game Room Walk to the Slopes

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 13 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $87,698ADR $835Occ ≈ 29%5★ (1)

    Booking

  • 2 units + Hot Tub+ Walk to Summit+ Pet Friendly

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $104,919ADR $471Occ ≈ 61%4.9★ (24)

    Airbnb

  • Summit + Luxury + Spa + EVcharger + Single Story

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $45,724ADR $724Occ ≈ 17%5★ (83)

    Airbnb

  • Arlberg Village Haus | Hot Tub | Game Room | Ski

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 13 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $70,617ADR $777Occ ≈ 25%4.2★ (4)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Slope Side Getaway at Big Bear - Central Duplex Retreat Chalet

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $15,637ADR $677Occ ≈ 6%—

    Booking

  • Slope Side Getaway #2526

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $13,837ADR $728Occ ≈ 5%—

    Booking

  • Slope Side Getaway at Big Bear - Central Duplex Re

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $17,258ADR $709Occ ≈ 7%5★ (1)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Pet-friendly home with private poolFoosballGames

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $49,327ADR $588Occ ≈ 23%4.5★ (39)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Steps to Slopes Luxury New Built 4 Bedroom Home

    House · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 14 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $67,875ADR $1,143Occ ≈ 16%—

    Vrbo

  • 172 - Summit Grand Sanctuary South

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 14 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $53,365ADR $628Occ ≈ 23%—

    Booking

  • 171 - Summit Grand Sanctuary North

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 14 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $72,002ADR $751Occ ≈ 26%—

    Booking

  • On Snow Summit Blvd. Perfect location for Slopes or Bike Park. Fireplace, Slope

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 14 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $21,390ADR $1,018Occ ≈ 6%5★

    Vrbo

  • Steps to Slopes Luxury New Built 4 Bedroom Home. On Snow Summit Blvd. Perfect lo

    House · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 14 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $21,568ADR $952Occ ≈ 6%5★

    Vrbo

  • Steps to Slopes Luxury New Built 4 Bedroom Home

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 14 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $113,178ADR $1,172Occ ≈ 26%4.6★ (5)

    AirbnbVrbo

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Management
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$62,435

NOI

$28,276

Cash flow /mo

-$1,820

Cash needed

$224,750

Cash-on-cash

-9.7%

ROE (yr 1)

2.9%

Cap rate

3.6%

DSCR

0.56

Year-1 write-off

$195,857

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$62,674

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$21,839
  • Principal paydown$5,071
  • Appreciation at%$23,250
ROE2.9%

Tax savings aren't counted. Turn on “Count tax savings in returns” above if you can use the losses.

Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$12,487
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,873
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$3,122
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$10,035
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$3,953

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$193,750
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$31,000
  • Furnishing (conveyed with the sale)$0

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$62,674

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$622,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$194,000 · 31%

Year-1 deduction

$196,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$63,000

Land 20% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $428,000 over 39 years

Based on: 2,130 sq ft, built 1979, 4 bd / 3 ba, furnished, listing features (hot tub, deck, fence, game room, fireplace, flooring types, appliance list).

Try the cost segregation calculator on any property →

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $120,000 in year 1 (19% short-life, $38,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$106,300
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $10,500 new × 40% good × 3.47 allocation

    $14,500
  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $8,600 new × 40% good × 3.47 allocation

    $11,900
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $3,700 new × 40% good × 3.47 allocation

    $5,200
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $500 new × 40% good × 3.47 allocation

    $600
  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,500 new × 40% good × 3.47 allocation

    $2,100
  • Window coverings (21)default

    $5,300 new × 40% good × 3.47 allocation

    $7,300
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (100% of floors)listing

    $13,700 new × 40% good × 3.47 allocation

    $19,000
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $8,100 new × 40% good × 3.47 allocation

    $11,300
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,900 new × 40% good × 3.47 allocation

    $6,800
  • Appliances (range, microwave)listing

    $2,500 new × 40% good × 3.47 allocation

    $3,500
  • Hot tub (freestanding)listing

    $9,000 new × 40% good × 3.47 allocation

    $12,500
  • Furniture conveyed with the sale (used)listing

    $23,000 new × 40% good · out of the price

    $9,200
  • Game-room equipment (used)listing

    $6,000 new × 40% good · out of the price

    $2,400
15-year land improvements$88,200
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $9,600 new × 50% good × 3.47 allocation

    $16,600
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $9,200 new × 50% good × 3.47 allocation

    $16,000
  • Patiosdefault

    $2,100 new × 50% good × 3.47 allocation

    $3,600
  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $24,000 new × 50% good × 3.47 allocation

    $41,600
  • Fencinglisting

    $6,000 new × 50% good × 3.47 allocation

    $10,400
Building, 39-year$427,800
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $230,800 new × 40% good × 3.47 allocation

    $320,300
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $24,000 new × 40% good × 3.47 allocation

    $33,300
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $24,300 new × 40% good × 3.47 allocation

    $33,700
  • HVACdefault

    $24,000 new × 40% good × 3.47 allocation

    $33,300
  • Fireplaces (2)listing

    $5,300 new × 40% good × 3.47 allocation

    $7,300

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$106,300$88,200$1,400$195,900
2$0$0$11,000$11,000
3$0$0$11,000$11,000
4$0$0$11,000$11,000
5$0$0$11,000$11,000
6+$0$0$382,600$382,600
Total$106,300$88,200$427,800$622,300

The building's share of the price ($611,000) is 3.5x our depreciated replacement cost of the home ($176,000). The IRS guide treats a gap this size as a reason to review the land share: if land is worth more than the county ratio says, the basis and the write-off are smaller.

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.