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Rate 7.86% = 7.11% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Nov 12) + 0.75% investor premium

42535 Avalon Rd

42535 Avalon Rd

Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

$689,000

3 bd · 2 ba · 1,584 sqft · Listed 52d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Negative cash flow

Year built

1974

Sqft

1,584

Lot sqft

8,002

HOA / mo

$0

Furnished

No

List date

2026-09-22T09:47:12.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$38,683

ADR

$354

Occupancy

30%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$7,128

Confidence

Low (42.8), 50 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$19,960$38,085$47,597

Median revenue of shown comps: $37,830

  • Avalon Retreat - A well-furnished cabin with a pool table and a Hot Tub!

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 95 ft

    Revenue $42,204ADR $594Occ ≈ 19%—

    Booking

  • Fox Chalet

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 217 ft

    • Wifi
    • Fireplace

    Revenue $14,730ADR $316Occ ≈ 13%4.9★ (83)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Spacious Family Cabin! Game Room and Fireplace!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 279 ft

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $23,101ADR $406Occ ≈ 16%4.9★ (52)

    Airbnb

  • Cozy Bear Lodge. 4 minute drive to skiing/biking!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 9 · 285 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +4

    Revenue $1,283ADR $221Occ ≈ 2%5★ (6)

    Airbnb

  • Cozy cabin + Game Loft! Close to slopes & stores.

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 299 ft

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +2

    Revenue $37,920ADR $310Occ ≈ 34%5★ (206)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Spacious 3 bedroom, Hot Tub, Pool Table, fireplace

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 312 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +4

    Revenue $23,603ADR $517Occ ≈ 13%3.2★ (8)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Luxe Ski Getaway | Spa, Fire Pit, Pets, Crib, BBQ

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 315 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Pool
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +6

    Revenue $3,864ADR $740Occ ≈ 1%4.8★ (136)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Retreat to fox farm #1662

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 335 ft

    Revenue $37,686ADR $578Occ ≈ 18%—

    Booking

  • Retreat To Fox Farm Central Log Cabin Chalet at BB

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 335 ft

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +2

    Revenue $31,776ADR $428Occ ≈ 20%4.8★ (79)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Grizzly Gambrel - A Modern Mountain Getaway!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 354 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $56,108ADR $327Occ ≈ 47%5★ (225)

    Airbnb

Show 38 more
  • Casa Bosque Log Cabin Retreat w/ Hot Tub

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 387 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +4

    Revenue $27,385ADR $536Occ ≈ 14%4.2★ (29)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Casa Bosque- Central Modern Fox Farm Log Cabin Retreat- Hot Tub- Fenced- Pets

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 410 ft

    Revenue $38,885ADR $712Occ ≈ 15%5★ (1)

    Booking

  • Mellow Mountain Views ~ Hot Tub, Bball & Firepit

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 417 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $48,330ADR $265Occ ≈ 50%5★ (50)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Guest FAV 3BR Sun Chalet in Fox Farm| SPA & BBQ

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 423 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $57,634ADR $263Occ ≈ 60%5★ (50)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The Sun and Snow Chalet

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 430 ft

    Revenue $61,741ADR $272Occ ≈ 62%—

    Booking

  • Mountain & Ski Slope View Cabin 3bd/3bth Sleeps 10

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 440 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +5

    Revenue $42,999ADR $447Occ ≈ 26%4.6★ (38)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Bond Chateau: WiFi!Foosball! Hot Tub! Grill!

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 443 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $38,461ADR $301Occ ≈ 35%4.7★ (122)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Guest Favorite 3BR Cabin · Hot Tub · Fox Farm

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 7 · 443 ft

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • +2

    Revenue $72,901ADR $417Occ ≈ 48%5★ (196)

    Airbnb

  • Big Bear Cabin • Hot Tub + Firepit • Near Slopes

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 469 ft

    Revenue $6,969ADR $350Occ ≈ 5%—

    Delisted

  • Cozy Cabin Minutes Away from Slopes/Lake/Downtown

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 492 ft

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +1

    Revenue $14,805ADR $340Occ ≈ 12%5★ (62)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cozy Pines-Mountain Retreat | Hot Tub, Fenced Yard

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 502 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +4

    Revenue $29,859ADR $441Occ ≈ 19%5★ (55)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Secluded 3BR Cabin w/ Hot Tub Near Slopes & Lake

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 512 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +4

    Revenue $45,346ADR $315Occ ≈ 39%4.9★ (224)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • HOT TUB! Pool Table! Close to Snow Summit!

    House · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 9 · 522 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $45,206ADR $317Occ ≈ 39%4.7★ (139)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Chalet Ski Haven | Spa, Fire Pit, Pets, Crib, BBQ

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $28,390ADR $403Occ ≈ 19%4.5★ (17)

    Delisted

  • Hot Tub + Foosball & Air Hockey • Big Bear

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $10,113ADR $323Occ ≈ 9%4.8★ (4)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Cute! Cozy! Hot Tub! Close to Lake & Slopes! RV8

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +4

    Revenue $8,591ADR $401Occ ≈ 6%4.5★ (73)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Pet Friendly + Hot Tub + Close to Lake

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $18,366ADR $314Occ ≈ 16%4.5★ (2)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Rustic Retreat Big Bear~Central Fox Farm Chalet~

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $38,965ADR $1,129Occ ≈ 9%—

    Booking

  • Rustic Retreat at Big Bear - Spacious Retreat

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.1 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $15,396ADR $472Occ ≈ 9%4.4★ (10)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Big Bear Cozy Cottage - Hot Tub, Close to Lake, WiFi, Pet Friendly

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $27,423ADR $396Occ ≈ 19%—

    Booking

  • AFrame, E-Bikes, Kayak, StunningViews, EV, Hot Tub

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +5

    Revenue $72,599ADR $390Occ ≈ 51%4.8★ (68)

    Airbnb

  • Cozy Bear Den: Skyview Estates! Hot Tub!

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $37,739ADR $273Occ ≈ 38%4.8★ (72)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • A-Frame in Moonridge, Big Bear Lake - A/C, Hot Tub

    House · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $14,682ADR $281Occ ≈ 14%4.8★ (12)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Log Cabin, Hot Tub, Foosball, Fenced Yard

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $32,973ADR $505Occ ≈ 18%4.5★ (17)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Summit Cabin-Cent A/C,hot tub/game room/pool table

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +6

    Revenue $22,449ADR $530Occ ≈ 12%4.9★ (75)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Balboa at Big Bear #404

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $57,277ADR $448Occ ≈ 35%—

    Booking

  • Centrally Located Fox Farm Getaway w/ Arcade Table

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +4

    Revenue $19,130ADR $241Occ ≈ 22%4.8★ (19)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • NAMU CABIN • Modern Chic Design • Spa & Gameroom

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $38,249ADR $354Occ ≈ 30%5★ (100)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • House Paramount Paradise Close to everything EV Ch

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $5,992ADR $223Occ ≈ 7%5★ (3)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Modern Boho - Hot Tub | Close to Lake and Slopes

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $83,090ADR $311Occ ≈ 73%4.9★ (164)

    Airbnb

  • Hot Tub, Pool Table, Arcade Game, Slope Views

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $45,156ADR $470Occ ≈ 26%4.7★ (23)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Modern A-Frame Cabin • Hot Tub • Game Room

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +4

    Revenue $69,643ADR $381Occ ≈ 50%4.9★ (288)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Relaxing 3BR Escape | Hot Tub + Pet Friendly! BBQ!

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $41,681ADR $250Occ ≈ 46%4.8★ (107)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Log home with spaShuffleboardGamesBBQBy slopes

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $50,317ADR $418Occ ≈ 33%4.8★ (45)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Mountain Bear Cabin | Spa · Pool Table Near Slopes

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $45,398ADR $335Occ ≈ 37%4.5★ (64)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Grizzly Lodge - mountain + lake escape

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $57,244ADR $294Occ ≈ 53%4.8★ (129)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cougar Mt Getaway

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $41,272ADR $447Occ ≈ 25%3★ (1)

    Airbnb

  • Cougar Mt Getaway

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $4,149ADR $249Occ ≈ 5%—

    Booking

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Management
Term

Rate 7.86% = 7.11% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Nov 12) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$38,683

NOI

$12,559

Cash flow /mo

-$2,695

Cash needed

$219,310

Cash-on-cash

-14.7%

ROE (yr 1)

-3.3%

Cap rate

1.8%

DSCR

0.28

Year-1 write-off

$181,373

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$58,039

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$32,338
  • Principal paydown$4,438
  • Appreciation at%$20,670
ROE-3.3%

Tax savings aren't counted. Turn on “Count tax savings in returns” above if you can use the losses.

Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$7,737
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,160
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,934
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$8,613
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$3,514

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$172,250
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$27,560
  • Furnishing (bought new)$19,500

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$58,039

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$551,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$161,000 · 29%

Year-1 deduction

$181,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$58,000

Land 20% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $391,000 over 39 years · new furniture $20,000

Based on: 1,584 sq ft, built 1974, 3 bd / 2 ba, unfurnished, listing features (deck, fence, fireplace, appliance list).

Try the cost segregation calculator on any property →

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $109,000 in year 1 (16% short-life, $35,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$93,100
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $9,300 new × 40% good × 4.19 allocation

    $15,500
  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $7,600 new × 40% good × 4.19 allocation

    $12,700
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $2,800 new × 40% good × 4.19 allocation

    $4,600
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $300 new × 40% good × 4.19 allocation

    $500
  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,200 new × 40% good × 4.19 allocation

    $2,000
  • Window coverings (16)default

    $4,000 new × 40% good × 4.19 allocation

    $6,700
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (40% of floors)default

    $4,100 new × 40% good × 4.19 allocation

    $6,800
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $7,200 new × 40% good × 4.19 allocation

    $12,100
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,400 new × 40% good × 4.19 allocation

    $7,300
  • Appliances (range, dishwasher, disposal)listing

    $3,200 new × 40% good × 4.19 allocation

    $5,400
  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $19,500 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $19,500
15-year land improvements$87,000
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $8,300 new × 50% good × 4.19 allocation

    $17,300
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $7,900 new × 50% good × 4.19 allocation

    $16,600
  • Patiosdefault

    $1,600 new × 50% good × 4.19 allocation

    $3,300
  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $17,800 new × 50% good × 4.19 allocation

    $37,300
  • Fencinglisting

    $6,000 new × 50% good × 4.19 allocation

    $12,600
Building, 39-year$390,600
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $171,600 new × 40% good × 4.19 allocation

    $287,200
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $17,800 new × 40% good × 4.19 allocation

    $29,800
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $17,400 new × 40% good × 4.19 allocation

    $29,000
  • HVACdefault

    $17,800 new × 40% good × 4.19 allocation

    $29,900
  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $6,100 new × 40% good × 4.19 allocation

    $10,200
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 4.19 allocation

    $4,400

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$93,100$87,000$1,300$181,400
2$0$0$10,000$10,000
3$0$0$10,000$10,000
4$0$0$10,000$10,000
5$0$0$10,000$10,000
6+$0$0$349,300$349,300
Total$93,100$87,000$390,600$570,700

The building's share of the price ($551,000) is 4.2x our depreciated replacement cost of the home ($132,000). The IRS guide treats a gap this size as a reason to review the land share: if land is worth more than the county ratio says, the basis and the write-off are smaller.

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California, Georgia and Wisconsin disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.