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Rate 7.86% = 7.11% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Nov 12) + 0.75% investor premium

137 Pinon Pl

137 Pinon Pl

Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

$699,900

3 bd · 2 ba · 1,660 sqft · Listed 1d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Negative cash flow

Year built

2001

Sqft

1,660

Lot sqft

7,303

HOA / mo

$0

Furnished

Yes

List date

2026-11-12T17:41:45.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$39,362

ADR

$354

Occupancy

30%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$7,679

Confidence

Low (44.61), 49 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$22,812$33,279$53,061

Median revenue of shown comps: $33,204

  • Cub's Cabin #2561

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 213 ft

    Revenue $54,063ADR $487Occ ≈ 30%—

    Booking

  • Cub's Cabin / Charming 3-Bedroom Log Cabin Near Big Bear Lake

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 213 ft

    Revenue $62,478ADR $534Occ ≈ 32%5★ (2)

    Booking

  • Cubs Cabin 2 Nights this weekend 15% off

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 223 ft

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +2

    Revenue $25,287ADR $309Occ ≈ 22%4.8★ (6)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Nick's Cabin

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 230 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $24,634ADR $258Occ ≈ 26%5★ (81)

    Airbnb

  • Fox Farm! Pool Table! EV Charger! Fenced Yard!

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 276 ft

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +3

    Revenue $25,247ADR $467Occ ≈ 15%4.8★ (33)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Mid-Century Modern Retreat 2 Min Ski Slopes & SPA

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 295 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $24,369ADR $472Occ ≈ 14%4.8★ (9)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Teakwood Cozy Wood Cabin w/ Fireplace & Hottub

    Cabin · 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 8 · 312 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $42,973ADR $331Occ ≈ 36%4.6★ (34)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Hot Tub + AC | Fenced Yard + Fireplace

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 315 ft

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +4

    Revenue $21,183ADR $341Occ ≈ 17%4.5★ (16)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Cozy Mountain Retreat: Hot Tub, Dog Friendly & EV

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 354 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +6

    Revenue $21,897ADR $333Occ ≈ 18%5★ (78)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cozy Fox Farm Retreat | Steps to Hiking & Lake

    Chalet · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 367 ft

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +2

    Revenue $28,203ADR $429Occ ≈ 18%4.7★ (12)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

Show 31 more
  • Fox Farm, Cozy cabin with a game room, hot tub, & 2 decks in a great location!!

    House · 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 367 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $13,369ADR $400Occ ≈ 9%4.9★ (73)

    Vrbo

  • Eagle Mountain Estates Retreat

    House · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 436 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $55,133ADR $398Occ ≈ 38%5★ (38)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Serene MTN Vibes w/Jacuzzi gated yard 4 Kids/Dogs

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +5

    Revenue $46,436ADR $299Occ ≈ 43%4.8★ (340)

    Airbnb

  • Wildwood Lodge Central Modern Retreat w/ Hot Tub

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +4

    Revenue $33,387ADR $511Occ ≈ 18%4.5★ (41)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • ‘Dancing Bear Lodge’ ~ 1 Mi to Big Bear Lake!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.1 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $33,279ADR $330Occ ≈ 28%4.8★ (51)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Gorgeous, Arcade, pool table, central, secluded

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.1 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +4

    Revenue $21,988ADR $569Occ ≈ 11%5★ (16)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Enchanting Ski Escape, Hot Tub & Game Room

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +5

    Revenue $79,679ADR $410Occ ≈ 53%5★ (62)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Enchanting Snow Escape with Hot Tub

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $89,247ADR $436Occ ≈ 56%5★ (1)

    Booking

  • Enchanted Log Cabin on extensive Lot , Pet loving

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $9,924ADR $344Occ ≈ 8%5★ (58)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Bear Den: Hot Tub+Game Room+Firepit+Fenced Yard+EV

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +6

    Revenue $62,127ADR $400Occ ≈ 43%4.8★ (173)

    Airbnb

  • Big Bear Bungalow:Spa!Family Friendly!Fenced Yard!

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $53,061ADR $309Occ ≈ 47%4.8★ (74)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Mountain Air by AvantStay | Cabin 4mins to Lake

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $27,319ADR $302Occ ≈ 25%4.8★ (62)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Gorgeous cabin great for Family & Pets BBQ fenced backyard fire pit Jacuuzi

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $60,061ADR $365Occ ≈ 45%4.3★ (13)

    Vrbo

  • Game Room• Sauna • Hot Tub • Family & Pet Friendly

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +5

    Revenue $52,002ADR $506Occ ≈ 28%5★ (82)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Pet-friendly lodge with fire pit games BBQ

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $40,310ADR $370Occ ≈ 30%4.7★ (35)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Cornerstone Lodge Log Cabin at Big Bear Lake

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +2

    Revenue $29,016ADR $365Occ ≈ 22%4.8★ (20)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Our Beary Happy Place-Close to All!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $20,787ADR $350Occ ≈ 16%5★ (161)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Fox Farm Retreat: EV, PingPong, Fenced Yard!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +4

    Revenue $48,326ADR $367Occ ≈ 36%5★ (69)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cornerstone Lodge Log Cabin at Big Bear Lake

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $60,719ADR $920Occ ≈ 18%5★ (1)

    Booking

  • Welcome to the Fox Farm Charmer

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $51,084ADR $276Occ ≈ 51%4.8★ (47)

    Airbnb

  • Sunny Cabin Escape – Spa, BBQ & Family Fun

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $29,767ADR $341Occ ≈ 24%4.9★ (19)

    Airbnb

  • Arcade, Hot Tub, Game Room Home in Nature

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +5

    Revenue $70,744ADR $271Occ ≈ 72%4.8★ (149)

    Airbnb

  • Paradise Amongst the Pines

    House · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +4

    Revenue $37,460ADR $396Occ ≈ 26%5★ (42)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • *Teakwood Chalet* Mins to Lake | Games | Fire Pit

    House · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $6,007ADR $291Occ ≈ 6%5★ (8)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Gameroom w/Pool Table and 3 TV's! Custom Log Home!

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $6,654ADR $246Occ ≈ 7%—

    Delisted

  • NOMAD NOOK | Autumn Basecamp | Relax•Hike•Explore

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +3

    Revenue $32,644ADR $575Occ ≈ 16%5★ (101)

    Airbnb

  • Modern cabin with a Hot Tub, Game Room, Fire Pit

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $33,204ADR $630Occ ≈ 14%4★ (6)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Central A/C! Hot Tub! Firepit! Fenced Yard!

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $11,347ADR $274Occ ≈ 11%5★ (7)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Northern Retreat: Sleeps 10 & Forest Views

    House · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +4

    Revenue $83,980ADR $426Occ ≈ 54%4.8★ (90)

    Airbnb

  • The Kitchy Cabin: Big Bear Mountain Getaway

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $11,431ADR $429Occ ≈ 7%4.8★ (139)

    Delisted

  • Whispering Pines Cabin – Tranquility in the Trees

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $22,812ADR $274Occ ≈ 23%4.5★ (26)

    AirbnbVrbo

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Management
Term

Rate 7.86% = 7.11% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Nov 12) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$39,362

NOI

$12,872

Cash flow /mo

-$2,728

Cash needed

$202,971

Cash-on-cash

-16.1%

ROE (yr 1)

-3.6%

Cap rate

1.8%

DSCR

0.28

Year-1 write-off

$149,081

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$47,706

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$32,735
  • Principal paydown$4,508
  • Appreciation at%$20,997
ROE-3.6%

Tax savings aren't counted. Turn on “Count tax savings in returns” above if you can use the losses.

Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$7,872
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,181
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,968
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$8,749
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$3,569

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$174,975
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$27,996
  • Furnishing (conveyed with the sale)$0

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$47,706

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$561,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$149,000 · 26%

Year-1 deduction

$149,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$48,000

Land 20% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $413,000 over 39 years

Based on: 1,660 sq ft, built 2001, 3 bd / 2 ba, furnished, listing features (deck, fence, fireplace, flooring types, appliance list).

Try the cost segregation calculator on any property →

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $93,000 in year 1 (16% short-life, $30,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$81,500
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $9,400 new × 40% good × 3.13 allocation

    $11,800
  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $7,700 new × 40% good × 3.13 allocation

    $9,700
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $2,900 new × 40% good × 3.13 allocation

    $3,600
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $300 new × 40% good × 3.13 allocation

    $400
  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,200 new × 40% good × 3.13 allocation

    $1,500
  • Window coverings (17)default

    $4,300 new × 40% good × 3.13 allocation

    $5,300
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (100% of floors)listing

    $10,700 new × 40% good × 3.13 allocation

    $13,400
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $7,300 new × 50% good × 3.13 allocation

    $11,500
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,400 new × 50% good × 3.13 allocation

    $6,900
  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, refrigerator, washer, dryer)listing

    $7,700 new × 40% good × 3.13 allocation

    $9,600
  • Furniture conveyed with the sale (used)listing

    $19,500 new × 40% good · out of the price

    $7,800
15-year land improvements$67,100
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $8,400 new × 50% good × 3.13 allocation

    $13,200
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $8,100 new × 50% good × 3.13 allocation

    $12,700
  • Patiosdefault

    $1,600 new × 50% good × 3.13 allocation

    $2,600
  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $18,700 new × 50% good × 3.13 allocation

    $29,200
  • Fencinglisting

    $6,000 new × 50% good × 3.13 allocation

    $9,400
Building, 39-year$412,800
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $179,900 new × 58% good × 3.13 allocation

    $328,300
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $18,700 new × 50% good × 3.13 allocation

    $29,200
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $18,300 new × 50% good × 3.13 allocation

    $28,700
  • HVACdefault

    $18,700 new × 40% good × 3.13 allocation

    $23,400
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 3.13 allocation

    $3,300

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$81,500$67,100$400$149,100
2$0$0$10,600$10,600
3$0$0$10,600$10,600
4$0$0$10,600$10,600
5$0$0$10,600$10,600
6+$0$0$370,100$370,100
Total$81,500$67,100$412,800$561,500

The building's share of the price ($554,000) is 3.1x our depreciated replacement cost of the home ($177,000). The IRS guide treats a gap this size as a reason to review the land share: if land is worth more than the county ratio says, the basis and the write-off are smaller.

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California, Georgia and Wisconsin disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.