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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

568 Silver Tip Dr

568 Silver Tip Dr

Big Bear, CA 92315

$749,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,393 sqft · Listed 25d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Negative cash flow

Year built

1984

Sqft

2,393

Lot sqft

5,131

HOA / mo

$0

Furnished

No

List date

2026-09-04T01:08:12.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$56,641

ADR

$470

Occupancy

33%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$11,428

Confidence

Low (42.49), 48 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$34,582$50,852$64,620
  • Silvertip Perch: Bear Mountain Views! Hot Tub!

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 12 · 0 ft

    Revenue $56,107ADR $471Occ ≈ 33%4.8★ (34)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Mooncrest Manor: Pet Friendly! Full Game Room!

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 12 · 164 ft

    Revenue $52,638ADR $474Occ ≈ 30%4.7★ (94)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Newly Remodeled! Spa, FencedYard, PetsOK, Igloo!

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 11 · 295 ft

    Revenue $121,583ADR $756Occ ≈ 44%4.9★ (18)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Big Bear Hideaway Cabin.

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 9 · 427 ft

    Revenue $3,103ADR $948Occ ≈ 1%1★ (1)

    Airbnb

  • Relaxing Big Cub Cabin at Big Bear

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $101,314ADR $1,247Occ ≈ 22%—

    Booking

  • Big Cub Cabin Big Bear- Hot Tub- Games- Stargazing

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $122,258ADR $1,308Occ ≈ 26%5★ (15)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • HOT TUB! Garage Parking! Slope Views! Game Table!

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $43,899ADR $370Occ ≈ 33%4.4★ (150)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Eagles Nest Best Place To Rest with generator

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 13 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $57,311ADR $563Occ ≈ 28%4.6★ (12)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 4BR Retreat | Central AIr Conditioning | Gameroom

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $45,145ADR $350Occ ≈ 35%5★ (102)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Hilltop Haven: Lake & Mtn Views! Hot Tub! Games!

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $56,259ADR $414Occ ≈ 37%4.8★ (197)

    AirbnbVrbo

Show all 49 comps
  • Wildwood Designer Glamp w Hot Tub & Game Room

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 15 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $50,852ADR $684Occ ≈ 20%4.7★ (17)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Big Bear Cabin | Hot Tub, Pool Table & Lake Access

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $52,809ADR $558Occ ≈ 26%4.8★ (201)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Luxury! Pet Friendly! Hot Tub! 4 Master Suites!

    House · 4 bd · 4.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $68,645ADR $482Occ ≈ 39%4.5★ (118)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Walk to Bear Mtn! Hot Tub! Pet Friendly! Fire Pit!

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $21,168ADR $382Occ ≈ 15%5★ (11)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Charming Mountain Cabin Near

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $30,558ADR $200Occ ≈ 42%3.2★ (6)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Family Cabin with Arcade Game Room

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $35,669ADR $564Occ ≈ 17%5★ (2)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Villa Cozy Grove-Hot Tub, Views, Game Room

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $47,566ADR $394Occ ≈ 33%4.5★ (83)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • New! Bearadise ~ Silver Bear Mountain Retreat

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $49,426ADR $250Occ ≈ 54%4.4★ (86)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 3,000 S.F. Beautiful House, WIFI, near Ski Lift

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $12,128ADR $808Occ ≈ 4%4.7★ (77)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Big Bear hideaway cabin

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $13,368ADR $326Occ ≈ 11%4.8★ (5)

    Airbnb

  • Hasselhof Mountain Cabin

    Chalet · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $39,329ADR $566Occ ≈ 19%5★ (9)

    Airbnb

  • The Drey-Gorgeous Big Bear Mountain Views

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $55,632ADR $514Occ ≈ 30%4.7★ (80)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Welcome to Bearadise: Walk to Zoo & Golf Course!

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $33,927ADR $228Occ ≈ 41%4.8★ (69)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Lux 4 Bdrm! Central A/C! Hot Tub! Near Bear Mtn!

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 13 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $94,101ADR $637Occ ≈ 40%4.8★ (63)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • WalkerBearHouse (10 Adults Max)

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 16 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $51,262ADR $742Occ ≈ 19%4.9★ (41)

    Airbnb

  • Fenced Yard! Dog Friendly! Gametable!

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $41,168ADR $307Occ ≈ 37%4.8★ (139)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 2 Mi to Lake & Ski Slopes: Big Bear Cabin

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $42,624ADR $439Occ ≈ 27%4.5★ (13)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Moonridge Ski&Zoo Chalet HotTub/4BB/BBQ/Fr Pit/AC*

    Chalet · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $77,383ADR $529Occ ≈ 40%5★ (58)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Bear Mountain Chalet w/ views, Hot Tub, and Games!

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $55,770ADR $790Occ ≈ 19%5★ (7)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Hot Tub, Game Room, Deck w/ Mtn Views | Paw Print

    House · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 16 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $100,091ADR $542Occ ≈ 51%4.9★ (38)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Luxury Cabin Minutes to Slopes & Lake w/Hot Tub!

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $25,523ADR $638Occ ≈ 11%5★ (106)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Hillside Hideaway Big Bear House

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $35,890ADR $557Occ ≈ 18%4.8★ (9)

    Airbnb

  • The Mountain House - Game Room, Arcade Games, Foosball, Deck, BBQ

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $40,925ADR $576Occ ≈ 19%—

    Booking

  • Hot Tub, Dogs OK, BBQ, Shuffleboard, and more!

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $53,592ADR $763Occ ≈ 19%4.8★ (7)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Four bedroom home. Hot Tub, Dogs OK, BBQ, Shuffleboard, and much more!

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $8,874ADR $633Occ ≈ 4%—

    Vrbo

  • Hot Tub Dogs OK BBQ Shuffleboard and more

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $24,116ADR $631Occ ≈ 10%—

    Vrbo

  • Halfpipe Lodge - 4 bd/4 bth (8 beds) w/spa.

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $52,094ADR $496Occ ≈ 29%5★ (72)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Sublime For-Rest - High End Neighborhood! Hot Tub!

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 15 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $64,620ADR $551Occ ≈ 32%4.5★ (114)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Copper Pine Retreat / Spa, Large Back yard,

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $17,282ADR $547Occ ≈ 9%5★ (1)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Fox Canyon: Deck! Great Neighborhood! Fireplace!

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $34,582ADR $224Occ ≈ 42%4.1★ (38)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Moonridge Retreat | Hot Tub+A/C+Fire Pit+Near Lake

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $88,700ADR $324Occ ≈ 75%4.9★ (105)

    Airbnb

  • Dog-friendly cabin, picnic table, BBQ, game room, two kitchens and more!

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $6,131ADR $437Occ ≈ 4%—

    Vrbo

  • A-frame, Hot Tub, Game Room, Fireplace, Deck, View

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $79,717ADR $486Occ ≈ 45%5★ (141)

    Airbnb

  • Grizzly Mountain Retreat

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $60,041ADR $517Occ ≈ 32%4.7★ (39)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 4BR Log Cabin w/ Hot Tub, Fire Pit & Shuffleboard

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $16,355ADR $351Occ ≈ 13%5★ (13)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 1960-La Cerena Getaway

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 14 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $126,179ADR $1,225Occ ≈ 28%—

    AirbnbBooking

  • Golf/Ski/Hike/Zoo-Pool Table-Fireplaces-Essentials

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $38,733ADR $565Occ ≈ 19%3.9★ (11)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Club View Cabin with Hot Tub & Game Room

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $85,430ADR $331Occ ≈ 71%4.8★ (169)

    Airbnb

  • Hot Tub & Game Room: Spacious Big Bear Lake Cabin

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 13 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $75,590ADR $550Occ ≈ 38%4.2★ (17)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$56,641

NOI

$24,523

Cash flow /mo

-$1,993

Cash needed

$246,210

Cash-on-cash

-9.7%

ROE (yr 1)

1.4%

Cap rate

3.3%

DSCR

0.51

Year-1 write-off

$203,909

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$65,251

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$23,911
  • Principal paydown$4,901
  • Appreciation at%$22,470
ROE1.4%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)27.9%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$11,328
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,699
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$2,832
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$9,363
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$3,820

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$187,250
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$29,960
  • Furnishing (bought new)$29,000

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$65,251

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$599,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$174,000 · 29%

Year-1 deduction

$204,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$65,000

Land 20% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $426,000 over 39 years · new furniture $29,000

Based on: 2,393 sq ft, built 1984, 4 bd / 3.5 ba, unfurnished, listing features (hot tub, deck, fence, game room, fireplace, stone counters, flooring types, appliance list).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $128,000 in year 1 (16% short-life, $41,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$118,400
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $11,000 new × 40% good × 3.05 allocation

    $13,500
  • Kitchen countertops (stone)listing

    $11,300 new × 40% good × 3.05 allocation

    $13,800
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $4,200 new × 40% good × 3.05 allocation

    $5,100
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $500 new × 40% good × 3.05 allocation

    $500
  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,500 new × 40% good × 3.05 allocation

    $1,800
  • Window coverings (24)default

    $6,000 new × 40% good × 3.05 allocation

    $7,300
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (67% of floors)listing

    $10,300 new × 40% good × 3.05 allocation

    $12,500
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $8,600 new × 40% good × 3.05 allocation

    $10,500
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $5,200 new × 40% good × 3.05 allocation

    $6,300
  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, refrigerator)listing

    $5,700 new × 40% good × 3.05 allocation

    $7,000
  • Hot tub (freestanding)listing

    $9,000 new × 40% good × 3.05 allocation

    $11,000
  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $23,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $23,000
  • Game-room equipment bought newlisting

    $6,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $6,000
15-year land improvements$84,200
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $10,100 new × 50% good × 3.05 allocation

    $15,500
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $9,800 new × 50% good × 3.05 allocation

    $14,900
  • Patiosdefault

    $2,400 new × 50% good × 3.05 allocation

    $3,600
  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $26,900 new × 50% good × 3.05 allocation

    $41,100
  • Fencinglisting

    $6,000 new × 50% good × 3.05 allocation

    $9,200
Building, 39-year$425,700
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $259,500 new × 40% good × 3.05 allocation

    $316,700
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $27,000 new × 40% good × 3.05 allocation

    $32,900
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $27,600 new × 40% good × 3.05 allocation

    $33,700
  • HVACdefault

    $27,000 new × 40% good × 3.05 allocation

    $32,900
  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $5,100 new × 40% good × 3.05 allocation

    $6,300
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 3.05 allocation

    $3,200

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$118,400$84,200$1,400$203,900
2$0$0$10,900$10,900
3$0$0$10,900$10,900
4$0$0$10,900$10,900
5$0$0$10,900$10,900
6+$0$0$380,600$380,600
Total$118,400$84,200$425,700$628,200

The building's share of the price ($599,000) is 3.1x our depreciated replacement cost of the home ($196,000). The IRS guide treats a gap this size as a reason to review the land share: if land is worth more than the county ratio says, the basis and the write-off are smaller.

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.