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Rate 8.15% = 7.40% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Oct 8) + 0.75% investor premium

587 Villa Grove Ave

587 Villa Grove Ave

Big Bear City, CA 92314

$675,000

3 bd · 2 ba · 1,512 sqft · Listed 2d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

1964

Sqft

1,512

Lot sqft

8,220

HOA / mo

$0

Furnished

No

List date

2026-10-09T21:44:13.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$38,268

ADR

$282

Occupancy

37%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$7,983

Confidence

Low (37.15), 48 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$17,061$27,154$41,545

Median revenue of shown comps: $26,224

  • Luxury Log Cabin | Ski Views | Hot Tub & Fireplace

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 36 ft

    Revenue $61,763ADR $305Occ ≈ 55%5★ (217)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Bear Claw Inn - A place to enjoy peace with your family! Comes with a Foosball Table and more!

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 125 ft

    Revenue $36,494ADR $912Occ ≈ 11%4.7★ (4)

    Booking

  • Snowy Evening Lodge - Deck Treetop Views & Firepit

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 187 ft

    Revenue $33,603ADR $283Occ ≈ 33%4.9★ (68)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Upscale cabin, mini-split AC, spa, pool table

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 213 ft

    Revenue $75,835ADR $300Occ ≈ 69%5★ (372)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Big Bear Wilderness Retreat + Spa + Hiking Trail

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 236 ft

    Revenue $28,083ADR $537Occ ≈ 14%5★ (1)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Hideaway

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 269 ft

    Revenue $2,079ADR $259Occ ≈ 2%5★ (2)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Daniel’s Cabin / HotTub & Incredible Big Bear View

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 299 ft

    Revenue $41,652ADR $340Occ ≈ 34%4.8★ (266)

    Airbnb

  • Bearadise Log Cabin w/ Forest Winter Views & Charm

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 351 ft

    Revenue $43,300ADR $303Occ ≈ 39%5★ (230)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • New! Bearadise ~ Wooded Mountain Retreat

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 358 ft

    Revenue $2,755ADR $162Occ ≈ 5%5★ (2)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • HOT TUB! 5 STAR LOG HOME Tree Top & Slope View TTL

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 358 ft

    Revenue $18,889ADR $741Occ ≈ 7%4.5★ (67)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

Show 39 more
  • Big Bear Lake Cabin W/Spa Mountain view

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 423 ft

    Revenue $8,505ADR $211Occ ≈ 11%4.5★ (7)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • BEAUTIFUL CABIN WITH HOT TUB AND INCREDIBLE VIEWS

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 423 ft

    Revenue $41,224ADR $369Occ ≈ 31%4.8★ (269)

    Delisted

  • Moonridge Chalet - amazing A frame home, hot tub.

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 430 ft

    Revenue $16,800ADR $589Occ ≈ 8%5★ (3)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Moonridge Retreat Hot Tub Foosball Families!

    Chalet · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 443 ft

    Revenue $38,994ADR $245Occ ≈ 44%4.8★ (380)

    Airbnb

  • Onyx + Pine | A-Frame Cabin w/ Hot Tub & Game Loft

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 459 ft

    Revenue $75,842ADR $314Occ ≈ 66%5★ (72)

    Airbnb

  • Beautiful and Enchanting Retreat with Hot Tub & Fire Pit – A Perfect Getaway!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 482 ft

    Revenue $908ADR $282Occ ≈ 1%—

    Vrbo

  • Black Oak Cabin Retreat Big Bear w/ Hot Tub

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 518 ft

    Revenue $34,214ADR $343Occ ≈ 27%4.4★ (61)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Black Oak Cabin #1977 by Big Bear Vacations

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $36,051ADR $586Occ ≈ 17%5★ (1)

    Booking

  • 2 Large Decks & Hot Tub! Big Bear Cabin Getaway

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $17,843ADR $293Occ ≈ 17%4.7★ (7)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Updated Cabin Home with Hot Tub, Two Decks, Game Room, Fireplace

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $11,719ADR $0Occ ≈ ——

    Vrbo

  • Bear Mtn View Chalet - Spa & Game Room

    Chalet · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +5

    Revenue $32,347ADR $501Occ ≈ 18%5★ (173)

    Airbnb

  • The Resting Falcon + Spa + Pool Table + Air Hockey

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $22,071ADR $302Occ ≈ 20%4.2★ (13)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • The Luna Lodge | Air Hockey & Foosball | Peaceful

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $26,224ADR $425Occ ≈ 17%5★ (66)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Play All Day! Game Room, Swing Set & Hot Tub Cabin

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $1,366ADR $418Occ ≈ 1%—

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • New! Bearadise ~ Stylish Mountain Retreat

    Villa · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +1

    Revenue $69,736ADR $373Occ ≈ 51%4.7★ (85)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Luna Pines - Spa, A/C Game Rm, Fire Pit & EV Chrg

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +6

    Revenue $45,226ADR $342Occ ≈ 36%5★ (50)

    Airbnb

  • Minton Heaven Cabin | Spa · Foosball · Deck

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +1

    Revenue $21,415ADR $362Occ ≈ 16%4.8★ (24)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Heavenly Retreat: Billiards, Glimpse of Lake, BBQ

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +4

    Revenue $42,584ADR $378Occ ≈ 31%4.9★ (100)

    Airbnb

  • Book Your Big Bear Ski Vacation @ Serenity Peak

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $19,652ADR $517Occ ≈ 10%4.9★ (52)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Moonridge M Lodge Outdoor Firepits Minutes Slopes!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $43,112ADR $267Occ ≈ 44%5★ (84)

    Airbnb

  • Renovated Moonridge Cabin w/ Hot Tub & Lake Views!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $18,741ADR $208Occ ≈ 25%4.5★ (9)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Basecamp, Modern A Frame Retreat w Spa & Fireplace

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $15,331ADR $329Occ ≈ 13%4.5★ (2)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Moon Palace Escape at Big Bear Lake

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $50,309ADR $973Occ ≈ 14%—

    Booking

  • Moon Palace Escape at Big Bear Lake

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $28,415ADR $546Occ ≈ 14%4.7★ (13)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • New! Bearadise ~ Moonridge Serenade

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $37,946ADR $0Occ ≈ —4.8★ (62)

    Delisted

  • Big Bear Cabin - Hot Tub, AC, EV Charger, Arcade

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $40,360ADR $371Occ ≈ 30%5★ (28)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cheerful 3-bedroom cabin with pool table and games

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $18,482ADR $272Occ ≈ 19%4.8★ (54)

    Airbnb

  • Silver Bear Lodge. Near ski areas and zoo.

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +1

    Revenue $20,828ADR $335Occ ≈ 17%5★ (27)

    Airbnb

  • The Nest at Big Bear

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +4

    Revenue $22,368ADR $276Occ ≈ 22%4.9★ (31)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • BlueMoon 🌙• Modern Remodel • Spa • Pets Ok •🌲 Views • Arcade

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $44,359ADR $379Occ ≈ 32%4.9★ (131)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Beautiful Log Style Cabin

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $11,370ADR $219Occ ≈ 14%4.8★ (7)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The M Lodge/ Firepit/ close to slopes and lake

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $3,617ADR $325Occ ≈ 3%5★ (3)

    Airbnb

  • Rest N Relax Inn - Beautiful chalet-style cabin features dramatic forest and slope views!

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $48,912ADR $499Occ ≈ 27%5★ (1)

    Booking

  • Big Bear Cabin w/ Hot Tub < 3 Mi to Skiing!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $18,337ADR $366Occ ≈ 14%4.5★ (21)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Luxury Scandinavian Cabin | Hot Tub + Fire Pit

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $46,336ADR $456Occ ≈ 28%4.8★ (51)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Hexagon Mountain View & Spa

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $11,620ADR $447Occ ≈ 7%4.7★ (3)

    Airbnb

  • Geodesic Dome Home w/ Hot Tub & Yard in Big Bear!

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +4

    Revenue $13,826ADR $368Occ ≈ 10%4.8★ (7)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Moonridge Chalet - amazing A frame home for a couples retreat

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $16,588ADR $684Occ ≈ 7%—

    Delisted

  • Foosball + Hot Tub + Near Slopes

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $19,053ADR $374Occ ≈ 14%4.5★ (2)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Management
Term

Rate 8.15% = 7.40% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Oct 8) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$38,268

NOI

$12,485

Cash flow /mo

-$2,727

Cash needed

$221,250

Cash-on-cash

-14.8%

ROE (yr 1)

-3.8%

Cap rate

1.8%

DSCR

0.28

Year-1 write-off

$178,141

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$57,005

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$32,728
  • Principal paydown$4,105
  • Appreciation at%$20,250
ROE-3.8%

Tax savings aren't counted. Turn on “Count tax savings in returns” above if you can use the losses.

Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$7,654
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,148
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,913
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$8,438
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$3,443

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$168,750
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$27,000
  • Furnishing (bought new)$25,500

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$57,005

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$473,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$152,000 · 32%

Year-1 deduction

$178,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$57,000

Land 30% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $321,000 over 39 years · new furniture $26,000

Based on: 1,512 sq ft, built 1964, 3 bd / 2 ba, unfurnished, listing features (hot tub, deck, patio, fence, game room, fireplace, flooring types, appliance list).

Try the cost segregation calculator on any property →

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $119,000 in year 1 (20% short-life, $38,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$97,100
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $9,100 new × 40% good × 3.54 allocation

    $12,900
  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $7,500 new × 40% good × 3.54 allocation

    $10,600
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 3.54 allocation

    $3,700
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $300 new × 40% good × 3.54 allocation

    $400
  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,200 new × 40% good × 3.54 allocation

    $1,700
  • Window coverings (15)default

    $3,800 new × 40% good × 3.54 allocation

    $5,300
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $7,100 new × 40% good × 3.54 allocation

    $10,000
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,300 new × 40% good × 3.54 allocation

    $6,100
  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, refrigerator)listing

    $5,700 new × 40% good × 3.54 allocation

    $8,100
  • Hot tub (freestanding)listing

    $9,000 new × 40% good × 3.54 allocation

    $12,700
  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $19,500 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $19,500
  • Game-room equipment bought newlisting

    $6,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $6,000
15-year land improvements$80,700
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)listing

    $8,100 new × 50% good × 3.54 allocation

    $14,300
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $7,800 new × 50% good × 3.54 allocation

    $13,700
  • Patioslisting

    $6,800 new × 50% good × 3.54 allocation

    $12,000
  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $17,000 new × 50% good × 3.54 allocation

    $30,100
  • Fencinglisting

    $6,000 new × 50% good × 3.54 allocation

    $10,600
Building, 39-year$320,700
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $163,700 new × 40% good × 3.54 allocation

    $231,700
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $17,000 new × 40% good × 3.54 allocation

    $24,000
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $16,400 new × 40% good × 3.54 allocation

    $23,300
  • HVACdefault

    $17,000 new × 40% good × 3.54 allocation

    $24,100
  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $9,700 new × 40% good × 3.54 allocation

    $13,800
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 3.54 allocation

    $3,700

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$97,100$80,700$300$178,100
2$0$0$8,200$8,200
3$0$0$8,200$8,200
4$0$0$8,200$8,200
5$0$0$8,200$8,200
6+$0$0$287,400$287,400
Total$97,100$80,700$320,700$498,500

The building's share of the price ($473,000) is 3.5x our depreciated replacement cost of the home ($134,000). The IRS guide treats a gap this size as a reason to review the land share: if land is worth more than the county ratio says, the basis and the write-off are smaller.

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California, Georgia and Wisconsin disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.