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Rate 8.03% = 7.28% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Oct 1) + 0.75% investor premium

248 Vista Ln

248 Vista Ln

Sugarloaf, CA 92386

$399,900

4 bd · 2 ba · 1,750 sqft · Listed 1d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

1987

Sqft

1,750

Lot sqft

5,001

HOA / mo

$0

Furnished

No

List date

2026-10-01T15:49:27.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$35,129

ADR

$410

Occupancy

23%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$6,739

Confidence

Low (37.28), 23 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$19,260$27,254$45,229
  • * Oak & Stone Lodge * Central A/C * Game Room*Deck

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 351 ft

    Revenue $50,008ADR $505Occ ≈ 27%5★ (115)

    Airbnb

  • Sugar Bear Pines Cozy Mountain Retreat

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $37,145ADR $604Occ ≈ 17%—

    Booking

  • Sugar Bear Pines Cozy Sugarloaf Mountain Retreat

    Cabin · 4 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $25,816ADR $554Occ ≈ 13%4.3★ (10)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Fully Equipped Mountain Escape 10 Min from Town

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $25,149ADR $521Occ ≈ 13%4.9★ (44)

    Airbnb

  • Serene Retreat | Free EV Charger | New Grill

    Cottage · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $52,782ADR $317Occ ≈ 46%4.7★ (44)

    Airbnb

  • Brown Bear Retreat | Forest • Trails • Adventure

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $21,358ADR $466Occ ≈ 13%4.4★ (13)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Pet Friendly lodge sleeps 4-10

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $29,926ADR $298Occ ≈ 28%4.8★ (48)

    Airbnb

  • Highland Oaks Retreat at Big Bear- Relaxing Sugarloaf Cottage w/ Hot Tub

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $27,254ADR $461Occ ≈ 16%—

    Booking

  • Sugarloafing ~ Dog-friendly cabin with hot tub, covered porch, fireplace, grill, & W/D

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $56,051ADR $1,168Occ ≈ 13%—

    Booking

  • "Vista Pines" Dog Friendly w/Hot Tub & Arcades

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $49,277ADR $456Occ ≈ 30%5★ (107)

    AirbnbVrbo

Show all 23 comps
  • Evergreen Dreams A-Frame | Hot Tub & Pet Friendly

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $62,217ADR $271Occ ≈ 63%4.9★ (339)

    Airbnb

  • Maple Ridge + Hot-Tub/BBQ & Game Room!

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $36,543ADR $406Occ ≈ 25%3.9★ (13)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Timber lodge Retreat w/Game room

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $41,181ADR $329Occ ≈ 34%5★ (50)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Inyo Happy Place I Game Room + Fireplace

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $21,556ADR $237Occ ≈ 25%4.7★ (30)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Charming 4BR Retreat in Sugarloaf, CA

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $6,504ADR $865Occ ≈ 2%—

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Beautiful 4 bd cabin, Hot Tub,Deck, &parking for 4

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $22,876ADR $293Occ ≈ 21%4.7★ (69)

    Airbnb

  • The Upper Branch: Jacuzzi, fire pit, and Bar!

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $16,182ADR $683Occ ≈ 6%5★ (23)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Little Red Cabin + Hot-Tub & BBQ! Large Yard!

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $33,520ADR $267Occ ≈ 34%4.5★ (17)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Navigate Stays Big Bear Cabin. Hot Tub/Snow Summit

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $2,411ADR $368Occ ≈ 2%4.5★ (4)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Large Luxury Lodge! Hot tub, Separate bonus studio

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $78,230ADR $410Occ ≈ 52%5★ (200)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Luxurious Hyes in the Woods

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $17,161ADR $505Occ ≈ 9%5★ (17)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Skylight Chalet - 4 BR/2.5 Bath Home, Sleeps 8

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $10,667ADR $462Occ ≈ 6%5★ (80)

    Airbnb

  • Pups and Pine Lodge | w/ BBQ Deck, Hot tub & Games

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.8 mi

    Revenue $1,543ADR $220Occ ≈ 2%—

    AirbnbVrbo

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Management
Term

Rate 8.03% = 7.28% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Oct 1) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$35,129

NOI

$14,654

Cash flow /mo

-$986

Cash needed

$144,971

Cash-on-cash

-8.2%

ROE (yr 1)

1.8%

Cap rate

3.7%

DSCR

0.55

Year-1 write-off

$128,924

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$41,256

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$11,830
  • Principal paydown$2,491
  • Appreciation at%$11,997
ROE1.8%

Tax savings aren't counted. Turn on “Count tax savings in returns” above if you can use the losses.

Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$7,026
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,054
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,756
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$4,999
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$2,039

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$99,975
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$15,996
  • Furnishing (bought new)$29,000

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$41,256

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$320,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$100,000 · 31%

Year-1 deduction

$129,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$41,000

Land 20% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $220,000 over 39 years · new furniture $29,000

Based on: 1,750 sq ft, built 1987, 4 bd / 2 ba, unfurnished, listing features (deck, patio, game room, fireplace, stone counters, flooring types, appliance list).

Try the cost segregation calculator on any property →

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $86,000 in year 1 (18% short-life, $28,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$79,800
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $9,600 new × 40% good × 2.19 allocation

    $8,500
  • Kitchen countertops (stone)listing

    $9,900 new × 40% good × 2.19 allocation

    $8,700
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $3,100 new × 40% good × 2.19 allocation

    $2,700
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $300 new × 40% good × 2.19 allocation

    $300
  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,500 new × 40% good × 2.19 allocation

    $1,300
  • Window coverings (18)default

    $4,500 new × 40% good × 2.19 allocation

    $4,000
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (100% of floors)listing

    $11,300 new × 40% good × 2.19 allocation

    $9,900
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $7,500 new × 40% good × 2.19 allocation

    $6,600
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,500 new × 40% good × 2.19 allocation

    $4,000
  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, refrigerator)listing

    $5,700 new × 40% good × 2.19 allocation

    $5,000
  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $23,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $23,000
  • Game-room equipment bought newlisting

    $6,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $6,000
15-year land improvements$48,900
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)listing

    $8,700 new × 50% good × 2.19 allocation

    $9,500
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $8,300 new × 50% good × 2.19 allocation

    $9,200
  • Patioslisting

    $7,900 new × 50% good × 2.19 allocation

    $8,600
  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $19,700 new × 50% good × 2.19 allocation

    $21,600
Building, 39-year$220,200
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $189,400 new × 40% good × 2.19 allocation

    $166,300
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $19,700 new × 40% good × 2.19 allocation

    $17,300
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $19,500 new × 40% good × 2.19 allocation

    $17,100
  • HVACdefault

    $19,700 new × 40% good × 2.19 allocation

    $17,300
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 2.19 allocation

    $2,300

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$79,800$48,900$200$128,900
2$0$0$5,600$5,600
3$0$0$5,600$5,600
4$0$0$5,600$5,600
5$0$0$5,600$5,600
6+$0$0$197,400$197,400
Total$79,800$48,900$220,200$348,900

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California, Georgia and Wisconsin disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.