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Rate 7.99% = 7.24% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Oct 29) + 0.75% investor premium

195 Vista Ln

195 Vista Ln

Sugarloaf, CA 92386

$499,000

5 bd · 3 ba · Listed 2d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

2003

Sqft

—

Lot sqft

4,275

HOA / mo

None

Furnished

Yes

List date

2026-10-31T20:58:49.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$34,514

ADR

$402

Occupancy

24%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$6,572

Confidence

Low (37.15), 26 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$17,229$27,242$42,214

Few similar-size comps were found, so all comps are shown.

Median revenue of shown comps: $27,242

  • Fully Equipped Mountain Escape 10 Min from Town

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 243 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +4

    Revenue $26,024ADR $518Occ ≈ 14%4.9★ (45)

    Airbnb

  • * Oak & Stone Lodge * Central A/C * Game Room*Deck

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • +5

    Revenue $50,622ADR $511Occ ≈ 27%5★ (115)

    Airbnb

  • Serene Retreat | Free EV Charger | New Grill

    Cottage · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $50,157ADR $313Occ ≈ 44%4.7★ (44)

    Delisted

  • Sugar Bear Pines Cozy Mountain Retreat

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $40,481ADR $604Occ ≈ 18%—

    Booking

  • Brown Bear Retreat | Forest • Trails • Adventure

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +1

    Revenue $25,052ADR $395Occ ≈ 17%4.4★ (13)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Sugarloaf Treehouse 5 Bedrooms Family Friendly

    Cabin · 5 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $4,480ADR $263Occ ≈ 5%4★ (1)

    Airbnb

  • Sugarloafing ~ Dog-friendly cabin with hot tub, covered porch, fireplace, grill, & W/D

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $65,358ADR $1,214Occ ≈ 15%—

    Booking

  • Highland Oaks Retreat at Big Bear- Relaxing Sugarloaf Cottage w/ Hot Tub

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $28,574ADR $467Occ ≈ 17%—

    Booking

  • Pet Friendly lodge sleeps 4-10

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.4 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $29,944ADR $297Occ ≈ 28%4.8★ (48)

    Airbnb

  • Maple Ridge + Hot-Tub/BBQ & Game Room!

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $37,483ADR $414Occ ≈ 25%3.9★ (14)

    AirbnbBooking

Show 16 more
  • Evergreen Dreams A-Frame | Hot Tub & Pet Friendly

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.4 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $63,554ADR $272Occ ≈ 64%4.9★ (339)

    Airbnb

  • "Vista Pines" Dog Friendly w/Hot Tub & Arcades

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $56,074ADR $406Occ ≈ 38%5★ (107)

    Airbnb

  • Timber lodge Retreat w/Game room

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $38,903ADR $403Occ ≈ 26%5★ (50)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Beautiful 4 bd cabin, Hot Tub,Deck, &parking for 4

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $22,876ADR $293Occ ≈ 21%4.7★ (69)

    Delisted

  • Charming 4BR Retreat in Sugarloaf, CA

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.5 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer

    Revenue $6,533ADR $865Occ ≈ 2%—

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Inyo Happy Place I Game Room + Fireplace

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.5 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +2

    Revenue $22,153ADR $238Occ ≈ 26%4.7★ (32)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • The Upper Branch: Jacuzzi, fire pit, and Bar!

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.6 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $15,644ADR $683Occ ≈ 6%5★ (23)

    Airbnb

  • Skylight Chalet - 4 BR/2.5 Bath Home, Sleeps 8

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.6 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $11,421ADR $455Occ ≈ 7%5★ (80)

    Airbnb

  • Navigate Stays Big Bear Cabin. Hot Tub/Snow Summit

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.6 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $17,601ADR $586Occ ≈ 8%4.6★ (5)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Large Luxury Lodge! Separate bonus studio, Hot tub

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.7 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +5

    Revenue $77,664ADR $412Occ ≈ 52%5★ (205)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • High Altitude Hideaway With Jacuzzi & Game Room

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.7 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • +4

    Revenue $42,792ADR $569Occ ≈ 21%5★ (62)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Fun-Filled Big Bear Retreat for Families & Friends

    House · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.7 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +2

    Revenue $24,498ADR $306Occ ≈ 22%4.2★ (4)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Luxurious Hyes in the Woods

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.7 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +2

    Revenue $17,105ADR $505Occ ≈ 9%5★ (17)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • The Maple Ridge + Hot-Tub/BBQ & Game Room!

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $28,459ADR $430Occ ≈ 18%3.8★ (12)

    Delisted

  • 5 Mi to Snow Summit: Cabin w/ Deck & Fireplace

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.7 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +1

    Revenue $12,612ADR $394Occ ≈ 9%4.5★ (23)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • "Oktoberfest” 20% off New Villa, AC, pool tbl, 10p

    Villa · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.8 mi

    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $3,030ADR $606Occ ≈ 1%—

    AirbnbVrbo

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Management
Term

Rate 7.99% = 7.24% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Oct 29) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$34,514

NOI

$12,616

Cash flow /mo

-$1,692

Cash needed

$144,710

Cash-on-cash

-14.0%

ROE (yr 1)

-1.5%

Cap rate

2.5%

DSCR

0.38

Year-1 write-off

$92,435

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$29,579

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$20,306
  • Principal paydown$3,133
  • Appreciation at%$14,970
ROE-1.5%

Tax savings aren't counted. Turn on “Count tax savings in returns” above if you can use the losses.

Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$6,903
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,035
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,726
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$6,238
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$2,545

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$124,750
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$19,960
  • Furnishing (conveyed with the sale)$0

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$29,579

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$431,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$92,000 · 21%

Year-1 deduction

$92,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$30,000

Land 14% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $338,000 over 39 years

Based on: ~2,900 sq ft (from beds), built 2003, 5 bd / 3 ba, furnished, listing features (deck, fireplace, flooring types, appliance list).

Try the cost segregation calculator on any property →

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $54,000 in year 1 (12% short-life, $17,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$52,700
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $12,200 new × 40% good × 1.37 allocation

    $6,700
  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $9,900 new × 40% good × 1.37 allocation

    $5,500
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $5,100 new × 40% good × 1.37 allocation

    $2,800
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $500 new × 40% good × 1.37 allocation

    $200
  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,800 new × 40% good × 1.37 allocation

    $1,000
  • Window coverings (29)default

    $7,300 new × 40% good × 1.37 allocation

    $4,000
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (67% of floors)listing

    $12,400 new × 40% good × 1.37 allocation

    $6,800
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $9,500 new × 54% good × 1.37 allocation

    $7,000
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $5,700 new × 54% good × 1.37 allocation

    $4,200
  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, dryer)listing

    $7,100 new × 40% good × 1.37 allocation

    $3,900
  • Furniture conveyed with the sale (used)listing

    $26,500 new × 40% good · out of the price

    $10,600
15-year land improvements$39,400
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $11,200 new × 50% good × 1.37 allocation

    $7,700
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $10,700 new × 50% good × 1.37 allocation

    $7,400
  • Patiosdefault

    $2,900 new × 50% good × 1.37 allocation

    $2,000
  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $32,600 new × 50% good × 1.37 allocation

    $22,400
Building, 39-year$338,400
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $314,600 new × 62% good × 1.37 allocation

    $266,200
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $32,700 new × 54% good × 1.37 allocation

    $24,200
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $34,000 new × 54% good × 1.37 allocation

    $25,200
  • HVACdefault

    $32,700 new × 40% good × 1.37 allocation

    $17,900
  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $6,200 new × 40% good × 1.37 allocation

    $3,400
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 1.37 allocation

    $1,400

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$52,700$39,400$400$92,400
2$0$0$8,700$8,700
3$0$0$8,700$8,700
4$0$0$8,700$8,700
5$0$0$8,700$8,700
6+$0$0$303,400$303,400
Total$52,700$39,400$338,400$430,500

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California, Georgia and Wisconsin disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.