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Rate 7.86% = 7.11% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Nov 12) + 0.75% investor premium

117 Victoria Ln

117 Victoria Ln

Sugarloaf, CA 92386

$199,900

2 bd · 1 ba · 1,048 sqft · Listed 1d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

1980

Sqft

1,048

Lot sqft

5,349

HOA / mo

$0

Furnished

No

List date

2026-11-12T19:13:35.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$21,016

ADR

$172

Occupancy

33%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$5,236

Confidence

Low (37.67), 48 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$10,651$17,690$28,857

Median revenue of shown comps: $17,946

  • Big Bear 2 Bedroom Cabin w/ Hot Tub and EV Charger

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 82 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +6

    Revenue $23,413ADR $204Occ ≈ 31%5★ (76)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Mountain Dream Lodge

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 135 ft

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +2

    Revenue $1,327ADR $325Occ ≈ 1%—

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • MOUNTAIN DREAM LODGE

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 135 ft

    Revenue $10,794ADR $245Occ ≈ 12%4.8★ (112)

    Airbnb

  • The Raccoon Retreat + Firepit + Spa + BBQ

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 259 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $27,990ADR $231Occ ≈ 33%4.2★ (20)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Ultimate Racoon Retreat + Hot-Tub & BBQ!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 325 ft

    Revenue $1,237ADR $112Occ ≈ 3%—

    Delisted

  • The Raccoon Retreat + Firepit + Spa + BBQ

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 407 ft

    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • Fireplace

    Revenue $14,440ADR $132Occ ≈ 30%3.4★ (3)

    Airbnb

  • Family Mountain Cabin-Dogs Welcome-Grill-Pines

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 427 ft

    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $11,293ADR $228Occ ≈ 14%5★ (213)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Modern Mountain Cabin w/ EV Charger - Pets Welcome

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 440 ft

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +7

    Revenue $19,217ADR $221Occ ≈ 24%4.9★ (78)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • The Racoon Getaway! + Hot-Tub & BBQ

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 459 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $318ADR $159Occ ≈ 1%—

    Airbnb

  • Romantic and Peaceful Escape with Hot Tub

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 489 ft

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +3

    Revenue $36,981ADR $198Occ ≈ 51%4.8★ (598)

    Airbnb

Show 38 more
  • Cozy Paw Cabin sleeps 6-Spa

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $29,688ADR $219Occ ≈ 37%4.8★ (82)

    Airbnb

  • New! Bearadise ~ Fairytale Mountain Getaway

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $31,068ADR $222Occ ≈ 38%5★ (63)

    Delisted

  • Cozy 2 Bedroom house w/ Fireplac Gel Matt & 70' TV

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer

    Revenue $12,919ADR $456Occ ≈ 8%4★ (1)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Bright & Cozy Cabin w/ Fireplace & BBQ

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.1 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +1

    Revenue $12,763ADR $257Occ ≈ 14%5★ (3)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • New! Bearadise ~ Fairytale Mountain Getaway

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $17,690ADR $152Occ ≈ 32%4.7★ (20)

    Airbnb

  • Super Cute/Fenced/Pet Friendly/Walk 2 Park/Sleep 6

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $4,044ADR $404Occ ≈ 3%5★ (24)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Big Bear Cabin with Hot Tub!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $22,018ADR $388Occ ≈ 16%5★ (10)

    Delisted

  • Pet friendly family cabin with game room

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $53,707ADR $204Occ ≈ 72%5★ (34)

    Airbnb

  • TwinPines•Dogfriendly•Fire pit•private hot tub•

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $33,935ADR $178Occ ≈ 52%4.9★ (219)

    Airbnb

  • Sugarloaf Retreat | Fenced Yard + Fireplace

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $12,028ADR $229Occ ≈ 14%3★ (4)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Fall Cabin | Hot Tub, Fire Pit, Near Lake Stay

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $18,747ADR $287Occ ≈ 18%5★ (37)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Misty Mountain Hideaway

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $36,390ADR $180Occ ≈ 55%4.9★ (673)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Little Pinecone Cabin

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer

    Revenue $7,016ADR $262Occ ≈ 7%4.9★ (10)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Modern Mountain Cabin

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +2

    Revenue $33,437ADR $156Occ ≈ 59%4.8★ (136)

    Airbnb

  • FirePit • Speakeasy Cabin Vibes • Perfect Backyard

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $24,385ADR $249Occ ≈ 27%5★ (50)

    Airbnb

  • Big Bear Pine Haven Cabin: Hot Tub Games

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +4

    Revenue $43,942ADR $146Occ ≈ 82%4.8★ (62)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • 5 Mi to Lake & Skiing! All-Season Big Bear Base

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +1

    Revenue $2,706ADR $154Occ ≈ 5%—

    AirbnbBooking

  • Sugar Bear Lodge

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +3

    Revenue $31,814ADR $186Occ ≈ 47%5★ (77)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Pet-friendly, cozy cabin with Hot Tub & Fire Pit

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $17,487ADR $362Occ ≈ 13%4.8★ (23)

    Delisted

  • 5 Mi to Big Bear Lake: Pet-Friendly Gem Near Hikes

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $18,201ADR $198Occ ≈ 25%4.8★ (48)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Hot Tub + Fenced Yard + Fireplace

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $28,857ADR $261Occ ≈ 30%4.2★ (6)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • The Moreno Hideaway | Cozy Mountain Escape

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +1

    Revenue $25,645ADR $166Occ ≈ 42%4.6★ (19)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cozy Cabin in Big Bear, CA.

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +1

    Revenue $28,225ADR $135Occ ≈ 57%4.8★ (51)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • *Serene Deck*Near Sports Park*FREE Snacks

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +1

    Revenue $15,652ADR $161Occ ≈ 27%4.7★ (38)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Near Lakes & Skiing: Cozy Sugarloaf Cabin w/ Yard

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $7,090ADR $152Occ ≈ 13%1★ (1)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Cozy Bear Cabin, 15% off 7days or more

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +1

    Revenue $30,573ADR $163Occ ≈ 51%5★ (220)

    Airbnb

  • Rustic Retreat

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +1

    Revenue $15,901ADR $103Occ ≈ 42%5★ (57)

    Airbnb

  • Moreno pines cottage #2468

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $27,861ADR $771Occ ≈ 10%—

    Booking

  • Cabin in Big Bear

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $30,294ADR $200Occ ≈ 41%5★ (58)

    Airbnb

  • Sugarloaf | Fireplace + Trails + Pets

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +1

    Revenue $6,993ADR $197Occ ≈ 10%3.9★ (27)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Cozy 2 Bedroom Cabin Getaway

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $7,849ADR $147Occ ≈ 15%5★ (61)

    Delisted

  • Cozy Mountain Cabin w/ Fireplace & Deck

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $10,050ADR $168Occ ≈ 16%5★ (3)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Forest Cabin Lodge in Big Bear

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $10,651ADR $285Occ ≈ 10%5★ (17)

    Airbnb

  • The Moreno Hideaway- Indulge in a Winter Escape

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $6,868ADR $283Occ ≈ 7%4.8★ (16)

    Airbnb

  • Pet-friendly Woodland Escape - Sugar Pine Hollow

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +4

    Revenue $32,644ADR $128Occ ≈ 70%4.8★ (239)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • ⭐️Lofted Retreat⭐️ HBO, Boardgames, Nintendo & More!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Fireplace
    • +1

    Revenue $23,151ADR $135Occ ≈ 47%5★ (278)

    Airbnb

  • Newly remodeled: Cozy Mozy Cabin

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Fireplace
    • +1

    Revenue $11,401ADR $433Occ ≈ 7%4.8★ (67)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Casa Del Bosque (House in the Woods) pet friendly

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $9,213ADR $237Occ ≈ 11%5★ (88)

    AirbnbVrbo

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Management
Term

Rate 7.86% = 7.11% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Nov 12) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$21,016

NOI

$7,713

Cash flow /mo

-$443

Cash needed

$73,971

Cash-on-cash

-7.2%

ROE (yr 1)

2.7%

Cap rate

3.9%

DSCR

0.59

Year-1 write-off

$59,084

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$18,907

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$5,313
  • Principal paydown$1,288
  • Appreciation at%$5,997
ROE2.7%

Tax savings aren't counted. Turn on “Count tax savings in returns” above if you can use the losses.

Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$4,203
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$630
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,051
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$2,499
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$1,019

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$49,975
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$7,996
  • Furnishing (bought new)$16,000

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$18,907

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$153,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$43,000 · 28%

Year-1 deduction

$59,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$19,000

Land 23% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $110,000 over 39 years · new furniture $16,000

Based on: 1,048 sq ft, built 1980, 2 bd / 1 ba, unfurnished, listing features (fireplace).

Try the cost segregation calculator on any property →

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $46,000 in year 1 (19% short-life, $15,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$45,300
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $8,100 new × 40% good × 1.79 allocation

    $5,800
  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $6,600 new × 40% good × 1.79 allocation

    $4,700
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $1,800 new × 40% good × 1.79 allocation

    $1,300
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $200 new × 40% good × 1.79 allocation

    $100
  • Shelvingdefault

    $900 new × 40% good × 1.79 allocation

    $600
  • Window coverings (10)default

    $2,500 new × 40% good × 1.79 allocation

    $1,800
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (40% of floors)default

    $2,700 new × 40% good × 1.79 allocation

    $1,900
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $6,300 new × 40% good × 1.79 allocation

    $4,500
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $3,800 new × 40% good × 1.79 allocation

    $2,700
  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)default

    $8,100 new × 40% good × 1.79 allocation

    $5,800
  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $16,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $16,000
15-year land improvements$13,600
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $6,700 new × 50% good × 1.79 allocation

    $6,000
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $6,500 new × 50% good × 1.79 allocation

    $5,800
  • Patiosdefault

    $1,000 new × 50% good × 1.79 allocation

    $900
  • Decks & porches (attached)default

    $1,000 new × 50% good × 1.79 allocation

    $900
Building, 39-year$110,300
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $113,500 new × 40% good × 1.79 allocation

    $81,200
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $11,700 new × 40% good × 1.79 allocation

    $8,400
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $10,600 new × 40% good × 1.79 allocation

    $7,600
  • HVACdefault

    $11,800 new × 40% good × 1.79 allocation

    $8,400
  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $4,000 new × 40% good × 1.79 allocation

    $2,900
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 1.79 allocation

    $1,900

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$45,300$13,600$100$59,100
2$0$0$2,800$2,800
3$0$0$2,800$2,800
4$0$0$2,800$2,800
5$0$0$2,800$2,800
6+$0$0$98,900$98,900
Total$45,300$13,600$110,300$169,300

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California, Georgia and Wisconsin disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.