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Rate 8.07% = 7.32% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Oct 22) + 0.75% investor premium

322 Moreno Ln

322 Moreno Ln

Sugarloaf, CA 92386

$285,000

2 bd · 1 ba · 708 sqft · Listed 1d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Negative cash flow

Year built

1969

Sqft

708

Lot sqft

5,001

HOA / mo

$0

Furnished

No

List date

2026-10-22T22:49:03.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$22,161

ADR

$170

Occupancy

36%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$5,192

Confidence

Low (45.12), 49 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$11,668$21,433$28,864

Median revenue of shown comps: $21,984

  • Moreno pines cottage #2468

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 115 ft

    Revenue $34,383ADR $547Occ ≈ 17%—

    Booking

  • ⭐️Lofted Retreat⭐️ HBO, Boardgames, Nintendo & More!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 164 ft

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Fireplace
    • +1

    Revenue $22,717ADR $135Occ ≈ 46%5★ (273)

    Airbnb

  • The Moreno Hideaway- Indulge in a Winter Escape

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 177 ft

    Revenue $8,726ADR $298Occ ≈ 8%4.8★ (16)

    Airbnb

  • Cozy Cabin in Big Bear, CA.

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 341 ft

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +1

    Revenue $28,018ADR $138Occ ≈ 56%4.8★ (51)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The Moreno Hideaway | Cozy Mountain Escape

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 384 ft

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +1

    Revenue $21,793ADR $178Occ ≈ 34%4.6★ (19)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 5 Mi to Big Bear Lake: Pet-Friendly Gem Near Hikes

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 407 ft

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $18,446ADR $197Occ ≈ 26%4.8★ (47)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Gambrel Cabin | Hot Tub & Fireplace

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 486 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $28,110ADR $261Occ ≈ 30%4.2★ (6)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Cozy cabin-5 minutes from Oktoberfest!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 492 ft

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $24,003ADR $167Occ ≈ 39%5★ (113)

    Airbnb

  • Pet-friendly, cozy cabin with Hot Tub & Fire Pit

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 499 ft

    Revenue $17,425ADR $362Occ ≈ 13%4.8★ (23)

    Delisted

  • FirePit • Speakeasy Cabin Vibes • Perfect Backyard

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 502 ft

    Revenue $24,236ADR $246Occ ≈ 27%5★ (50)

    Airbnb

Show 38 more
  • Pet-friendly Woodland Escape - Sugar Pine Hollow

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +4

    Revenue $32,073ADR $130Occ ≈ 68%4.8★ (237)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • TwinPines•Dogfriendly•Fire pit•private hot tub•

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $34,854ADR $175Occ ≈ 55%4.9★ (217)

    Airbnb

  • Sugar Bear Lodge

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +3

    Revenue $32,171ADR $177Occ ≈ 50%5★ (76)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Cozy retreat with a dreamy starlit jacuzzi

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $36,230ADR $180Occ ≈ 55%4.8★ (106)

    Airbnb

  • Rustic Retreat

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.1 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +1

    Revenue $15,234ADR $103Occ ≈ 41%5★ (57)

    Airbnb

  • Little Pinecone Cabin

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer

    Revenue $8,263ADR $290Occ ≈ 8%4.9★ (10)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • NEW Cozy Pines Cottage W Hot Tub & Fire pit!

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $30,043ADR $264Occ ≈ 31%4.8★ (82)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • NEW Cozy Pines Cottage and Fire pit

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $26,702ADR $229Occ ≈ 32%—

    Booking

  • Starry Pines Cabin - Deck, Firepit & Jacuzzi

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $46,337ADR $201Occ ≈ 63%5★ (73)

    Airbnb

  • Steps to National Forest + Fireplace

    House · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.1 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +1

    Revenue $8,692ADR $243Occ ≈ 10%4.5★ (14)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Bright & Cozy Cabin w/ Fireplace & BBQ

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.1 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +1

    Revenue $14,336ADR $262Occ ≈ 15%5★ (3)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Casa Del Bosque (House in the Woods) pet friendly

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $10,147ADR $221Occ ≈ 13%5★ (88)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cozy 2 Bedroom Cabin Getaway

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $8,435ADR $147Occ ≈ 16%5★ (61)

    Delisted

  • Cozy Family-Friendly Cabin | Skiing, Hiking, Hygge

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $9,353ADR $217Occ ≈ 12%4.7★ (47)

    Airbnb

  • Cozy Paw Cabin sleeps 6-Spa

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $29,526ADR $222Occ ≈ 36%4.8★ (79)

    Airbnb

  • Cozy 2-bed Cabin in Big Bear, 10 Mins from Lake

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +3

    Revenue $14,512ADR $266Occ ≈ 15%4.9★ (23)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cozy Mountain Cabin | skiing + hiking + tubing

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $36,737ADR $202Occ ≈ 50%4.8★ (107)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • BEST VALUE BIG BEAR-QUIET-COZY-PET FRIENDLY WIFI

    Cottage · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $16,900ADR $138Occ ≈ 34%4.8★ (334)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Wonderful Wabash

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $22,354ADR $224Occ ≈ 27%4.9★ (40)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Fall Cabin | Hot Tub, Fire Pit, Near Lake Stay

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $15,820ADR $308Occ ≈ 14%5★ (30)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cozy Big Bear Cabin · Hot Tub · Quiet Pines Escape

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Pool
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • +2

    Revenue $22,175ADR $197Occ ≈ 31%4.9★ (59)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Charming 1950s Western Cabin | Dog-Friendly Stay

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +1

    Revenue $25,845ADR $159Occ ≈ 45%4.9★ (50)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Cabin in Big Bear

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $28,637ADR $185Occ ≈ 42%5★ (58)

    Airbnb

  • ★Mountain Getaway★New Hot Tub ★ Fenced Backyard ★

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $52,037ADR $211Occ ≈ 68%4.9★ (420)

    Airbnb

  • The Sugar Nugget Chalet

    Chalet · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $3,412ADR $235Occ ≈ 4%5★ (4)

    Airbnb

  • Cozy Mountain Cabin

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +1

    Revenue $11,408ADR $159Occ ≈ 20%4.9★ (6)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Cute & Cozy Cabin w/ Large Deck & Front Yard

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +2

    Revenue $20,698ADR $138Occ ≈ 41%5★ (278)

    Airbnb

  • Cozy Bear Cabin, 15% off 7days or more

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +1

    Revenue $29,778ADR $171Occ ≈ 48%5★ (219)

    Airbnb

  • Big Bear Pine Haven Cabin: Hot Tub Games

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +4

    Revenue $44,233ADR $150Occ ≈ 81%4.8★ (59)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Cabin in Sugarloaf, Smart TV, Deck, Fenced Yard, B

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $23,091ADR $135Occ ≈ 47%4.8★ (5)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Forest Cabin Retreat in Sugarloaf

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $8,507ADR $225Occ ≈ 10%4.2★ (22)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Luna Haven-Peaceful 2BR 2BA

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $17,457ADR $254Occ ≈ 19%4.9★ (23)

    Delisted

  • 5 Mi to Lake & Skiing! All-Season Big Bear Base

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer
    • +1

    Revenue $2,334ADR $150Occ ≈ 4%—

    AirbnbBooking

  • Ultimate Racoon Retreat + Hot-Tub & BBQ!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $882ADR $98Occ ≈ 2%—

    Airbnb

  • Cozy 2 Bedroom house w/ Fireplac Gel Matt & 70' TV

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer

    Revenue $12,727ADR $496Occ ≈ 7%4★ (1)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Family Mountain Cabin-Dogs Welcome-Grill-Pines

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $12,447ADR $216Occ ≈ 16%5★ (211)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The Raccoon Retreat + Firepit + Spa + BBQ

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $28,939ADR $232Occ ≈ 34%4.2★ (20)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • The Sugar Shack with Hot Tub, Mountain Serenity

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +1

    Revenue $21,073ADR $138Occ ≈ 42%4.8★ (520)

    Airbnb

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Management
Term

Rate 8.07% = 7.32% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Oct 22) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$22,161

NOI

$7,167

Cash flow /mo

-$982

Cash needed

$98,650

Cash-on-cash

-11.9%

ROE (yr 1)

-1.5%

Cap rate

2.5%

DSCR

0.38

Year-1 write-off

$89,346

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$28,591

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$11,779
  • Principal paydown$1,761
  • Appreciation at%$8,550
ROE-1.5%

Tax savings aren't counted. Turn on “Count tax savings in returns” above if you can use the losses.

Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$4,432
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$665
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,108
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$4,114
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$1,454

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$71,250
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$11,400
  • Furnishing (bought new)$16,000

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$28,591

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$195,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$73,000 · 38%

Year-1 deduction

$89,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$29,000

Land 32% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $122,000 over 39 years · new furniture $16,000

Based on: 708 sq ft, built 1969, 2 bd / 1 ba, unfurnished, listing features (patio, fence, fireplace).

Try the cost segregation calculator on any property →

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $70,000 in year 1 (28% short-life, $22,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$58,800
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $7,400 new × 40% good × 2.93 allocation

    $8,600
  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $6,000 new × 40% good × 2.93 allocation

    $7,100
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $1,200 new × 40% good × 2.93 allocation

    $1,500
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $200 new × 40% good × 2.93 allocation

    $200
  • Shelvingdefault

    $900 new × 40% good × 2.93 allocation

    $1,100
  • Window coverings (7)default

    $1,800 new × 40% good × 2.93 allocation

    $2,100
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (40% of floors)default

    $1,800 new × 40% good × 2.93 allocation

    $2,100
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $5,700 new × 40% good × 2.93 allocation

    $6,700
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $3,500 new × 40% good × 2.93 allocation

    $4,100
  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)default

    $8,100 new × 40% good × 2.93 allocation

    $9,500
  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $16,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $16,000
15-year land improvements$30,400
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $5,500 new × 50% good × 2.93 allocation

    $8,100
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $5,300 new × 50% good × 2.93 allocation

    $7,800
  • Patioslisting

    $3,200 new × 50% good × 2.93 allocation

    $4,700
  • Decks & porches (attached)default

    $700 new × 50% good × 2.93 allocation

    $1,000
  • Fencinglisting

    $6,000 new × 50% good × 2.93 allocation

    $8,800
Building, 39-year$121,800
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $76,300 new × 40% good × 2.93 allocation

    $89,500
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $7,900 new × 40% good × 2.93 allocation

    $9,300
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $6,200 new × 40% good × 2.93 allocation

    $7,300
  • HVACdefault

    $8,000 new × 40% good × 2.93 allocation

    $9,400
  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $2,700 new × 40% good × 2.93 allocation

    $3,200
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 2.93 allocation

    $3,100

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$58,800$30,400$100$89,300
2$0$0$3,100$3,100
3$0$0$3,100$3,100
4$0$0$3,100$3,100
5$0$0$3,100$3,100
6+$0$0$109,200$109,200
Total$58,800$30,400$121,800$211,000

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California, Georgia and Wisconsin disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.