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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

550 Pine Ln Lot 83

550 Pine Ln Lot 83

Sugarloaf, CA 92386

$269,000

2 bd · 1 ba · Listed 30d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Negative cash flow

Year built

1973

Sqft

—

Lot sqft

5,000

HOA / mo

None

Furnished

Yes

List date

2026-08-30T14:19:36.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$22,183

ADR

$162

Occupancy

38%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$4,611

Confidence

Low (44.53), 49 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$11,615$19,422$29,487
  • Cedar Cabin - Pets allowed/No Clean Fee

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 128 ft

    Revenue $38,585ADR $214Occ ≈ 49%5★ (129)

    Airbnb

  • EV Charging, Spa, Kid and Pet Friendly

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 151 ft

    Revenue $24,406ADR $257Occ ≈ 26%4.8★ (242)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The Good Time Cabin

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 7 · 299 ft

    Revenue $18,156ADR $190Occ ≈ 26%4.7★ (157)

    Airbnb

  • Rustic retreat•Sleeps 6•Pet friendly

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 315 ft

    Revenue $17,511ADR $208Occ ≈ 23%4.8★ (15)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Cozy Pines Getaway E*Bikes*Kayak* Firepit Table

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 315 ft

    Revenue $7,997ADR $123Occ ≈ 18%5★ (3)

    Airbnb

  • 5 minutes to Lake! Cozy cabin with Hot Tub!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 328 ft

    Revenue $31,274ADR $253Occ ≈ 34%4.9★ (52)

    Airbnb

  • Modern, Electric Fireplace, Single Level, Laundry

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 397 ft

    Revenue $12,238ADR $156Occ ≈ 21%5★ (1)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Modern & Cozy Big Bear Cabin Nestled in the Woods

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $25,229ADR $201Occ ≈ 34%4.9★ (107)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Navigate Stays Retro Big Bear Cabin Near Slopes

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $2,431ADR $179Occ ≈ 4%4★ (1)

    Airbnb

  • Ski & Hike: Cozy Big Bear Retreat w/ Fireplace

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $9,755ADR $235Occ ≈ 11%—

    AirbnbVrboBooking

Show all 50 comps
  • Cubs Den

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $4,499ADR $209Occ ≈ 6%4.6★ (5)

    Airbnb

  • Sugarloaf Cabin Sweet Cabin

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $16,284ADR $148Occ ≈ 30%4.9★ (274)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Hot Tub, Fireplace, Barbecue, Fenced Yard!

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $14,143ADR $257Occ ≈ 15%4.7★ (6)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • The Cedar House | Cozy & Modern Mountain Retreat

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $34,547ADR $153Occ ≈ 62%5★ (235)

    Airbnb

  • Big Bear Nature Escape! Cabin 7 Mi to Lake

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $5,061ADR $263Occ ≈ 5%5★ (1)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Cozy Modern Cabin w/AC Hot Tub, Comfy Beds, Quiet

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $19,839ADR $290Occ ≈ 19%5★ (113)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Enchanting Hideaway 3BR, 2BA Cabin!

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $12,700ADR $220Occ ≈ 16%5★ (11)

    Airbnb

  • Maple Reserve

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $19,855ADR $368Occ ≈ 15%—

    Booking

  • Maple Comfort Reserve, 2BR near Lake & Trails, AC!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $18,562ADR $172Occ ≈ 30%4.5★ (13)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Colorful, quiet, comfortable home with fenced yard

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 3 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $19,005ADR $144Occ ≈ 36%5★ (13)

    Airbnb

  • The Sugar Shack with Hot Tub, Mountain Serenity

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $20,437ADR $138Occ ≈ 41%4.8★ (520)

    Airbnb

  • Serenity Cozy Cabin * Sled * Fireplace * Games

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $39,122ADR $5,270Occ ≈ 2%5★ (50)

    Airbnb

  • House of Butterfield

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $31,300ADR $214Occ ≈ 40%—

    Booking

  • Cozy Cabin Near Ski Resort

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $6,974ADR $377Occ ≈ 5%4.5★ (11)

    Airbnb

  • Sugar Pine Escape + Hot-Tub & Forest Backyard!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $29,951ADR $157Occ ≈ 52%4.6★ (17)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Smart TV, Fenced Yard, Quiet Area

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $5,270ADR $215Occ ≈ 7%4.3★ (13)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Oakwood Cottage Big Bear - Cozy Sugarloaf Mountain

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $11,825ADR $308Occ ≈ 11%3★ (1)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Pet Friendly | Foosball | Fire Pit | BBQ| WiFi

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $32,086ADR $137Occ ≈ 64%4.8★ (175)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Hot tub | BBQ | Pet Friendly | Gated

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $22,090ADR $187Occ ≈ 32%4.8★ (170)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Pet Friendly, Large Fenced Yard, Fireplace

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $34,139ADR $198Occ ≈ 47%4.2★ (5)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Vintage Cozy Cabin- Perfect for the Family-WiFi

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $1,384ADR $346Occ ≈ 1%4.8★ (9)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cozy 2-bed Cabin in Big Bear, 10 Mins from Lake

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $14,174ADR $265Occ ≈ 15%4.9★ (22)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Private Cozy+Tiny home.

    Tiny house · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 2 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $23,860ADR $106Occ ≈ 62%4.9★ (339)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • TOP RATED Boho Mountain Cabin: Pet-Friendly!

    Apartment · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $36,295ADR $256Occ ≈ 39%4.9★ (205)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 7 Mi to Ski Resorts: Dog-Friendly Sugarloaf Cabin

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $32,977ADR $136Occ ≈ 66%5★ (5)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Charming Dog Friendly Cabin w/Cable, WiFi, & Central A/C - Close to Lake & Town

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $3,116ADR $122Occ ≈ 7%—

    Vrbo

  • BEST VALUE BIG BEAR-QUIET-COZY-PET FRIENDLY WIFI

    Cottage · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $16,106ADR $137Occ ≈ 32%4.8★ (332)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Bearadise Cabin

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $27,068ADR $227Occ ≈ 33%4.5★ (1)

    Booking

  • New Cozy Forest Cabin BBQ Fireplace Private Clean

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $36,482ADR $161Occ ≈ 62%4.9★ (62)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Bearadise Cabin A/C heating system pet friendly

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $30,078ADR $265Occ ≈ 31%5★ (252)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Sagewood Cabin -Dog Friendly + Fenced Yard

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $12,182ADR $285Occ ≈ 12%4.9★ (27)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Big Bear Sugarloaf House

    House · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $6,558ADR $239Occ ≈ 8%5★ (1)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Quiet Hermitage in the Forest

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 2 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $11,373ADR $73Occ ≈ 43%5★ (67)

    Airbnb

  • Sugarloaf Bear Paw 2B/1Ba, SPA, AC, BBQ, Views

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $26,680ADR $154Occ ≈ 47%5★ (126)

    Airbnb

  • Serene Cabin Surrounded by the National Forest

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $28,093ADR $250Occ ≈ 31%4.9★ (290)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Casa Del Bosque

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $20,706ADR $0Occ ≈ —4.7★ (11)

    Airbnb

  • Charming 1950s Western Cabin | Dog-Friendly Stay

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $25,830ADR $157Occ ≈ 45%4.9★ (49)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Casa Del Bosque (House in the Woods) pet friendly

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $9,217ADR $219Occ ≈ 12%5★ (88)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Modern Cabin with A/C, Fire Pit, BBQ & Foosball

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $43,048ADR $203Occ ≈ 58%5★ (179)

    Airbnb

  • Romantic Forest Cabin | Walk to Trails | Deck+ BBQ

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $11,545ADR $143Occ ≈ 22%4.7★ (130)

    AirbnbVrbo

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$22,183

NOI

$7,441

Cash flow /mo

-$829

Cash needed

$78,010

Cash-on-cash

-12.8%

ROE (yr 1)

-0.2%

Cap rate

2.8%

DSCR

0.43

Year-1 write-off

$67,053

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$21,457

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$9,954
  • Principal paydown$1,760
  • Appreciation at%$8,070
ROE-0.2%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)27.3%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$4,437
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$665
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,109
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$3,363
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$1,372

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$67,250
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$10,760
  • Furnishing (conveyed with the sale)$0

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$21,457

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$211,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$66,000 · 31%

Year-1 deduction

$67,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$21,000

Land 22% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $144,000 over 39 years

Based on: ~1,400 sq ft (from beds), built 1973, 2 bd / 1 ba, furnished, listing features (deck, fireplace, flooring types, appliance list).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $39,000 in year 1 (18% short-life, $13,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$37,700
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $8,900 new × 40% good × 1.77 allocation

    $6,300
  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $7,300 new × 40% good × 1.77 allocation

    $5,100
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $2,500 new × 40% good × 1.77 allocation

    $1,700
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $200 new × 40% good × 1.77 allocation

    $100
  • Shelvingdefault

    $900 new × 40% good × 1.77 allocation

    $600
  • Window coverings (14)default

    $3,500 new × 40% good × 1.77 allocation

    $2,500
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (67% of floors)listing

    $6,000 new × 40% good × 1.77 allocation

    $4,200
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $6,900 new × 40% good × 1.77 allocation

    $4,900
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,200 new × 40% good × 1.77 allocation

    $3,000
  • Appliances (range, refrigerator)listing

    $4,000 new × 40% good × 1.77 allocation

    $2,800
  • Furniture conveyed with the sale (used)listing

    $16,000 new × 40% good · out of the price

    $6,400
15-year land improvements$28,600
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $7,800 new × 50% good × 1.77 allocation

    $6,900
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $7,500 new × 50% good × 1.77 allocation

    $6,600
  • Patiosdefault

    $1,400 new × 50% good × 1.77 allocation

    $1,200
  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $15,800 new × 50% good × 1.77 allocation

    $13,900
Building, 39-year$144,400
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $151,900 new × 40% good × 1.77 allocation

    $107,500
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $15,700 new × 40% good × 1.77 allocation

    $11,100
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $15,000 new × 40% good × 1.77 allocation

    $10,600
  • HVACdefault

    $15,800 new × 40% good × 1.77 allocation

    $11,200
  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $3,000 new × 40% good × 1.77 allocation

    $2,100
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 1.77 allocation

    $1,900

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$37,700$28,600$800$67,100
2$0$0$3,700$3,700
3$0$0$3,700$3,700
4$0$0$3,700$3,700
5$0$0$3,700$3,700
6+$0$0$128,800$128,800
Total$37,700$28,600$144,400$210,600

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.