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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

40697 Beaver Ln

40697 Beaver Ln

Big Bear Lake, CA 92315

$525,000

2 bd · 2 ba · 1,088 sqft · Listed 17d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Rental historyLow confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

1964

Sqft

1,088

Lot sqft

5,249

HOA / mo

$0

Furnished

Yes

List date

2026-09-12T01:53:49.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$27,264

ADR

$215

Occupancy

35%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$4,677

Confidence

Low (37.87), 50 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$15,871$23,466$35,831

  • Fire Pit & Steps to Village- Village Hideaway

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 33 ft

    Revenue $27,945ADR $342Occ ≈ 22%4.8★ (117)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Jus’ Restin Village Retreat | Steps to Big Bear Village, Dining & Shops

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 75 ft

    Revenue $20,299ADR $310Occ ≈ 18%3.5★ (1)

    Booking

  • Jus' Restin Village Retreat by Big Bear Vacations

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 135 ft

    Revenue $17,132ADR $360Occ ≈ 13%4.2★ (41)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Badger Cottage - Walk to village and Lake

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 177 ft

    Revenue $17,729ADR $242Occ ≈ 20%4.9★ (39)

    Airbnb

  • Cozy Little Hideaway Right In The Village

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 5 · 341 ft

    Revenue $16,892ADR $236Occ ≈ 20%4.7★ (65)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Badger Chalet- May spring Special, Walk to Village

    Chalet · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 381 ft

    Revenue $32,863ADR $200Occ ≈ 45%4.9★ (405)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Steps To The Village w/Game Room & Hot Tub

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 410 ft

    Revenue $39,689ADR $432Occ ≈ 25%4.7★ (52)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Honey Bee Hideaway

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 509 ft

    Revenue $65,900ADR $391Occ ≈ 46%5★ (48)

    Airbnb

  • Walk to Village, Lake Views, AC, Pool

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $27,160ADR $441Occ ≈ 17%4.5★ (41)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Fireside Lodge Cabin L/View Walk To Village

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $7,451ADR $302Occ ≈ 7%4.6★ (15)

    Airbnb

Show all 50 comps

  • Lakefront Condo w/ Pool, Spa & Dock

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $35,001ADR $281Occ ≈ 34%4.5★ (14)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • 2 BDRM ON BIG BEAR LAKE HEATED POOL HOT TUB CLUBHOUSE WATERSPORTS SKIING DINING

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $1,443ADR $360Occ ≈ 1%—

    Vrbo

  • The Club at Big Bear Village | Stunning 2BR Suite

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $32,084ADR $338Occ ≈ 26%—

    Airbnb

  • The Club at Big Bear Village | Stunning 2BR Suite

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $26,988ADR $396Occ ≈ 19%—

    Airbnb

  • The Club at Big Bear Village | Stunning 2BR Suite

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $42,942ADR $827Occ ≈ 14%—

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The Club at Big Bear Village | Stunning 2BR Suite

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $28,068ADR $414Occ ≈ 19%—

    Airbnb

  • The Club at Big Bear Village | Stunning 2BR Suite

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $31,327ADR $596Occ ≈ 14%—

    Airbnb

  • 2BR Lakeside Townhome- Walk to village

    House · 2 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $4,517ADR $347Occ ≈ 4%—

    Airbnb

  • Marina Riviera Cabins

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $11,939ADR $499Occ ≈ 7%4.9★ (41)

    Airbnb

  • Lakefront at the Village

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $64,470ADR $317Occ ≈ 56%4.6★ (7)

    Booking

  • Johan's Village Haus:Located in the Village! Spa!

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $25,090ADR $325Occ ≈ 21%4.8★ (43)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Walk to The Village Shops/Eats: Big Bear Lake Home

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 14 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $64,180ADR $383Occ ≈ 46%4.3★ (19)

    VrboBooking

  • Walk to Lake/Village, Centrally Located, Fireplace

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $35,914ADR $289Occ ≈ 34%4.7★ (3)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Lakefront Walk 2 Village, Dock Access & Pets

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $59,784ADR $346Occ ≈ 47%4.9★ (132)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Village Hideaway Big Bear Lake

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $6,369ADR $206Occ ≈ 8%4.8★ (51)

    Vrbo

  • 2 Bedroom 2 Bath Condo

    Apartment · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $16,293ADR $485Occ ≈ 9%5★ (1)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Lakefront Home, Walk to Village and Marina's

    House · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $19,084ADR $530Occ ≈ 10%5★ (2)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Lakefront Chalet with Beautiful Views and Easy Walk to the Village

    Chalet · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $33,319ADR $204Occ ≈ 45%4.9★ (23)

    Vrbo

  • Big Bear Cabin – Walk to Lake & Village

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 3 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $10,520ADR $230Occ ≈ 13%4.1★ (14)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Walk to Village & Lake, Kids Corner, Lakeview

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $62,934ADR $252Occ ≈ 68%5★ (70)

    Airbnb

  • LakeView Lodge6 (NearTheVillage)

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $17,679ADR $133Occ ≈ 36%4.5★ (72)

    Airbnb

  • Village retreat # 1897

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $5,479ADR $221Occ ≈ 7%3.5★ (1)

    Booking

  • The Village Retreat

    House · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $23,023ADR $493Occ ≈ 13%5★ (103)

    Airbnb

  • Lake-View Lodge 3 (Near Village)

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $15,768ADR $128Occ ≈ 34%4.2★ (83)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Near Village Lakeview Lodge 4

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $16,178ADR $136Occ ≈ 33%4★ (62)

    Airbnb

  • Skyhigh Chalet | Outdoor Spa - Near Village

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $36,492ADR $265Occ ≈ 38%4.1★ (50)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Lawliss Hideout | Steps to Village, Hot Tub

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $57,202ADR $257Occ ≈ 61%4.9★ (42)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Lakeview Lodge 5 - Near Village Entrance

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $23,909ADR $163Occ ≈ 40%4★ (49)

    Airbnb

  • LakeView Lodge 1 (Near Village)

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $14,486ADR $201Occ ≈ 20%4.1★ (64)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Comfy 2-Bed Cabin Steps from Big Bear Village

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $35,580ADR $139Occ ≈ 70%4.5★ (811)

    Airbnb

  • Best Location in Big Bear! Spa, Walk to Village

    House · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $46,041ADR $243Occ ≈ 52%4.9★ (267)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Modern Log Home-Walk2Slopes&Trails-Spa-Arcade-EVch

    Villa · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $11,189ADR $538Occ ≈ 6%5★ (1)

    Booking

  • Copper Mountain - Cozy Hollow 13

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $19,760ADR $116Occ ≈ 47%4.3★ (38)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • P: No.16 Jacuzzi Skylight Cabin

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $45,078ADR $167Occ ≈ 74%4.9★ (22)

    Airbnb

  • Cozy Cabin next to the Village, skiing and the Lake Welcome to Marinara Bear

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $13,223ADR $199Occ ≈ 18%—

    Vrbo

  • LVL Cabin #7 (Nearby Village)

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $15,005ADR $200Occ ≈ 21%4★ (48)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Big Bear Bird's Eye View - Enjoy the View

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $37,265ADR $780Occ ≈ 13%4.5★ (9)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Just a stroll away from the village

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $20,144ADR $345Occ ≈ 16%5★ (13)

    Airbnb

  • Walk to Village +Hot Tub+ Lake View +Pets Ok

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $18,144ADR $209Occ ≈ 24%5★ (14)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Walk to Village, lake & Forest.EV charger

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $11,347ADR $202Occ ≈ 15%5★ (248)

    AirbnbVrbo

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$27,264

NOI

$6,978

Cash flow /mo

-$2,248

Cash needed

$152,250

Cash-on-cash

-17.7%

ROE (yr 1)

-5.1%

Cap rate

1.3%

DSCR

0.21

Year-1 write-off

$129,839

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$41,548

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$26,971
  • Principal paydown$3,436
  • Appreciation at%$15,750
ROE-5.1%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)22.2%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$5,453
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$818
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,363
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$6,563
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$2,678

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$131,250
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$21,000
  • Furnishing (conveyed with the sale)$0

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$41,548

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$432,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$129,000 · 30%

Year-1 deduction

$130,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$42,000

Land 18% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $304,000 over 39 years

Based on: 1,088 sq ft, built 1964, 2 bd / 2 ba, furnished, listing features (fence, fireplace, stone counters, flooring types, appliance list).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $91,000 in year 1 (21% short-life, $29,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$78,600

  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $8,200 new × 40% good × 4.66 allocation

    $15,300

  • Kitchen countertops (stone)listing

    $8,400 new × 40% good × 4.66 allocation

    $15,600

  • Decorative trimdefault

    $1,900 new × 40% good × 4.66 allocation

    $3,500

  • Mirrorsdefault

    $300 new × 40% good × 4.66 allocation

    $600

  • Shelvingdefault

    $900 new × 40% good × 4.66 allocation

    $1,700

  • Window coverings (11)default

    $2,800 new × 40% good × 4.66 allocation

    $5,100

  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $6,400 new × 40% good × 4.66 allocation

    $11,900

  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $3,800 new × 40% good × 4.66 allocation

    $7,200

  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator)listing

    $6,100 new × 40% good × 4.66 allocation

    $11,400

  • Furniture conveyed with the sale (used)listing

    $16,000 new × 40% good · out of the price

    $6,400
15-year land improvements$50,300

  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)listing

    $6,800 new × 50% good × 4.66 allocation

    $15,900

  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $6,600 new × 50% good × 4.66 allocation

    $15,300

  • Patiosdefault

    $1,100 new × 50% good × 4.66 allocation

    $2,500

  • Decks & porches (attached)default

    $1,100 new × 50% good × 4.66 allocation

    $2,500

  • Fencinglisting

    $6,000 new × 50% good × 4.66 allocation

    $14,000
Building, 39-year$303,600

  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $117,700 new × 40% good × 4.66 allocation

    $219,400

  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $12,200 new × 40% good × 4.66 allocation

    $22,700

  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $11,100 new × 40% good × 4.66 allocation

    $20,600

  • HVACdefault

    $12,300 new × 40% good × 4.66 allocation

    $22,900

  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $7,000 new × 40% good × 4.66 allocation

    $13,100

  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 4.66 allocation

    $4,900

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$78,600$50,300$1,000$129,800
2$0$0$7,800$7,800
3$0$0$7,800$7,800
4$0$0$7,800$7,800
5$0$0$7,800$7,800
6+$0$0$271,500$271,500
Total$78,600$50,300$303,600$432,400

The building's share of the price ($426,000) is 4.7x our depreciated replacement cost of the home ($91,000). The IRS guide treats a gap this size as a reason to review the land share: if land is worth more than the county ratio says, the basis and the write-off are smaller.

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.