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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

33 Pigeon Creek Dr

33 Pigeon Creek Dr

Blue Ridge, GA 30513

$675,000

3 bd · 2 ba · 2,880 sqft · Listed 23d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Rental historyNegative cash flow

Year built

1985

Sqft

2,880

Lot sqft

64,033

HOA / mo

$0

Furnished

No

List date

2026-09-04T18:57:47.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$39,489

ADR

$271

Occupancy

40%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$9,591

Confidence

Low (51.97), 9 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$17,917$41,506$48,054

  • Modern Blue Ridge 3BR: Hot Tub Creek Firepit Games

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 9 · 128 ft

    Revenue $42,197ADR $292Occ ≈ 40%5★ (82)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Modern + moody/master suite/Aska Adventure

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $14,972ADR $373Occ ≈ 11%5★ (6)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Charming Creekside Cabin - Whitetail Run!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $11,283ADR $375Occ ≈ 8%4.9★ (21)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Luxury Cabin w/ views•Toccoa• HotTub•Firept•Pets

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $41,506ADR $256Occ ≈ 44%4.9★ (23)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Cozy Connect - View, hot tub, game room, fire pit

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $17,917ADR $270Occ ≈ 18%5★ (6)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Whimsical Ways - Hot tub-screen porch-pet friendly

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $59,599ADR $284Occ ≈ 57%5★ (31)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Higher Hopes - pets, hot tub, games, fire pit

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $48,054ADR $256Occ ≈ 51%5★ (32)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The Stargazer *Hot Tub*Firepit*Views*Toccoa River*

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $36,300ADR $248Occ ≈ 40%5★ (99)

    Airbnb

  • Blue Ridge - Creek Front Paradise w/great outdoors

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $50,920ADR $319Occ ≈ 44%5★ (190)

    AirbnbVrbo

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$39,489

NOI

$15,879

Cash flow /mo

-$2,314

Cash needed

$221,250

Cash-on-cash

-12.6%

ROE (yr 1)

-1.4%

Cap rate

2.4%

DSCR

0.36

Year-1 write-off

$152,511

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$48,803

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$27,769
  • Principal paydown$4,417
  • Appreciation at%$20,250
ROE-1.4%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)20.7%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$7,898
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,185
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,974
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$1,164
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$7,189

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$168,750
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$27,000
  • Furnishing (bought new)$25,500

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$48,803

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$618,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$125,000 · 20%

Year-1 deduction

$153,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$49,000

Land 8% (county tax record, market value split) · building $493,000 over 39 years · new furniture $26,000

Based on: 2,880 sq ft, built 1985, 3 bd / 2 ba, unfurnished, listing features (hot tub, fence, game room, fireplace, flooring types, appliance list, septic).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $117,000 in year 1 (14% short-life, $37,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$100,300

  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $12,100 new × 40% good × 2.79 allocation

    $13,500

  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $9,900 new × 40% good × 2.79 allocation

    $11,100

  • Decorative trimdefault

    $5,000 new × 40% good × 2.79 allocation

    $5,600

  • Mirrorsdefault

    $300 new × 40% good × 2.79 allocation

    $300

  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,200 new × 40% good × 2.79 allocation

    $1,300

  • Window coverings (29)default

    $7,300 new × 40% good × 2.79 allocation

    $8,100

  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (33% of floors)listing

    $6,200 new × 40% good × 2.79 allocation

    $6,900

  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $9,400 new × 40% good × 2.79 allocation

    $10,500

  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $5,700 new × 40% good × 2.79 allocation

    $6,400

  • Appliances (dishwasher)listing

    $1,000 new × 40% good × 2.79 allocation

    $1,100

  • Hot tub (freestanding)listing

    $9,000 new × 40% good × 2.79 allocation

    $10,000

  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $19,500 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $19,500

  • Game-room equipment bought newlisting

    $6,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $6,000
15-year land improvements$50,600

  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $13,900 new × 50% good × 2.79 allocation

    $19,400

  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $10,700 new × 50% good × 2.79 allocation

    $14,900

  • Patiosdefault

    $2,800 new × 50% good × 2.79 allocation

    $4,000

  • Decks & porches (attached)default

    $2,800 new × 50% good × 2.79 allocation

    $4,000

  • Fencinglisting

    $6,000 new × 50% good × 2.79 allocation

    $8,400
Building, 39-year$492,700

  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $313,200 new × 40% good × 2.79 allocation

    $349,200

  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $32,500 new × 40% good × 2.79 allocation

    $36,200

  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $33,800 new × 40% good × 2.79 allocation

    $37,700

  • HVACdefault

    $32,400 new × 40% good × 2.79 allocation

    $36,200

  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $12,400 new × 40% good × 2.79 allocation

    $13,800

  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 2.79 allocation

    $2,900

  • Septic systemlisting

    $12,000 new × 50% good × 2.79 allocation

    $16,700

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$100,300$50,600$1,600$152,500
2$0$0$12,600$12,600
3$0$0$12,600$12,600
4$0$0$12,600$12,600
5$0$0$12,600$12,600
6+$0$0$440,600$440,600
Total$100,300$50,600$492,700$643,700

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: Georgia disallows bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Fannin and Gilmer counties require STR registration and lodging tax; no cap found. Blue Ridge and Ellijay city limits have their own rules; most cabins are in unincorporated county.