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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

1374 Lucius Rd

1374 Lucius Rd

Cherry Log, GA 30522

$525,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,610 sqft · Listed 19d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Negative cash flow

Year built

2011

Sqft

1,610

Lot sqft

200,376

HOA / mo

$0

Furnished

No

List date

2026-09-08T03:32:53.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$56,497

ADR

$196

Occupancy

79%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$10,400

Confidence

Med (54.45), 11 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$42,777$55,717$76,093

  • Creekside cabin, 2BR/2BA, pet-friendly, fire pit

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $42,696ADR $171Occ ≈ 68%5★ (278)

    Airbnb

  • Bearadise - Cherry Log, GA

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $58,171ADR $273Occ ≈ 58%4.9★ (59)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Mountain Luxury • Hot Tub • Epic Views • Privacy

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $79,571ADR $265Occ ≈ 82%5★ (338)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cozy Mountain View Cabin w/ Fireplace + Hot Tub

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $72,615ADR $242Occ ≈ 82%5★ (299)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Honey Hideout - Blue Ridge

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $22,938ADR $151Occ ≈ 42%5★ (37)

    Airbnb

  • Mountainview Getaway, hot tub, firepit, hiking

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $55,717ADR $266Occ ≈ 57%4.5★ (20)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Sunrise Hideaway

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $42,858ADR $193Occ ≈ 61%4.9★ (76)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Ridgecrest | Cozy Cabin Fireplace Sunset & Hot Tub

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $84,512ADR $246Occ ≈ 94%5★ (396)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • *Storytellers Cabin* Arcade~Hot Tub~Rustic~Family

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $55,457ADR $230Occ ≈ 66%4.6★ (109)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Moon Pond - lake, hot tub

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $18,193ADR $307Occ ≈ 16%4.5★ (3)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

Show all 11 comps

  • Fenced Yard *No Pet Fee *Mountain Vw *Hike on site

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $106,283ADR $333Occ ≈ 87%5★ (201)

    AirbnbVrbo

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$56,497

NOI

$27,798

Cash flow /mo

-$513

Cash needed

$168,250

Cash-on-cash

-3.7%

ROE (yr 1)

7.7%

Cap rate

5.3%

DSCR

0.82

Year-1 write-off

$73,966

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$23,669

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$6,151
  • Principal paydown$3,436
  • Appreciation at%$15,750
ROE7.7%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)21.8%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$11,299
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,695
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$2,825
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$3,010
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$5,670

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$131,250
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$21,000
  • Furnishing (bought new)$16,000

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$23,669

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$378,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$57,000 · 15%

Year-1 deduction

$74,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$24,000

Land 28% (county tax record, market value split) · building $321,000 over 39 years · new furniture $16,000

Based on: 1,610 sq ft, built 2011, 2 bd / 2.5 ba, unfurnished, listing features (fireplace, flooring types, appliance list, septic).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $57,000 in year 1 (11% short-life, $18,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$55,000

  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $9,300 new × 40% good × 1.84 allocation

    $6,900

  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $7,600 new × 40% good × 1.84 allocation

    $5,600

  • Decorative trimdefault

    $2,800 new × 40% good × 1.84 allocation

    $2,100

  • Mirrorsdefault

    $300 new × 40% good × 1.84 allocation

    $200

  • Shelvingdefault

    $900 new × 40% good × 1.84 allocation

    $700

  • Window coverings (16)default

    $4,000 new × 40% good × 1.84 allocation

    $2,900

  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $7,300 new × 70% good × 1.84 allocation

    $9,300

  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,400 new × 70% good × 1.84 allocation

    $5,600

  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, refrigerator, washer, dryer)listing

    $7,700 new × 40% good × 1.84 allocation

    $5,700

  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $16,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $16,000
15-year land improvements$17,900

  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $8,300 new × 50% good × 1.84 allocation

    $7,600

  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $8,000 new × 50% good × 1.84 allocation

    $7,400

  • Patiosdefault

    $1,600 new × 50% good × 1.84 allocation

    $1,500

  • Decks & porches (attached)default

    $1,600 new × 50% good × 1.84 allocation

    $1,500
Building, 39-year$320,800

  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $174,700 new × 75% good × 1.84 allocation

    $240,900

  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $18,100 new × 70% good × 1.84 allocation

    $23,300

  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $17,700 new × 70% good × 1.84 allocation

    $22,700

  • HVACdefault

    $18,100 new × 40% good × 1.84 allocation

    $13,300

  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $10,400 new × 40% good × 1.84 allocation

    $7,600

  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 1.84 allocation

    $1,900

  • Septic systemlisting

    $12,000 new × 50% good × 1.84 allocation

    $11,000

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$55,000$17,900$1,000$74,000
2$0$0$8,200$8,200
3$0$0$8,200$8,200
4$0$0$8,200$8,200
5$0$0$8,200$8,200
6+$0$0$286,900$286,900
Total$55,000$17,900$320,800$393,800

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: Georgia disallows bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Fannin and Gilmer counties require STR registration and lodging tax; no cap found. Blue Ridge and Ellijay city limits have their own rules; most cabins are in unincorporated county.