194 Forge Mill Estates Dr
Morganton, GA 30560
$249,900
3 bd · 2 ba · Listed 1d ago
View on Realtor.com →Year built
2003
Sqft
—
Lot sqft
33,106
HOA / mo
$0
Furnished
No
List date
2026-10-21T16:25:25.000000Z
Revenue
Annual revenue
$30,723
ADR
$166
Occupancy
51%
Cleaning fees (12 mo)
$4,781
Confidence
Low (35.93), 11 comps
Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)
Median revenue of shown comps: $25,353
Sunset Views + Hot Tub + Lake Access/3 King Suites
House · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi
Revenue $60,085ADR $241Occ ≈ 68%5★ (100)
Keys to the Woods | Game Room | Fire Pit | Hot Tub
Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.5 mi
Revenue $36,856ADR $279Occ ≈ 36%5★ (2)
Delisted
Blue Ridge Delights Cabin – Quiet & Close to Town
Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.6 mi
Revenue $25,353ADR $163Occ ≈ 43%4.9★ (234)
A slice of Heaven! Private escape with gorgeous mountain views!
Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.7 mi
Revenue $53,371ADR $282Occ ≈ 52%5★ (90)
| Listing | Size | Revenue (12 mo) | ADR | Occ ≈ | Rating | Distance | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sunset Views + Hot Tub + Lake Access/3 King Suites House | 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 6 | $60,085 | $241 | 68% | 5★ (100) | 0.4 mi | Airbnb |
Boho Retreat | Lake Access + Fire Pit House | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 | $23,741 | $229 | 28% | 5★ (90) | 0.4 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Keys to the Woods | Game Room | Fire Pit | Hot Tub Cabin | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $36,856 | $279 | 36% | 5★ (2) | 0.5 mi | Delisted |
Morganton Cabin < 1/2 Mi to Blue Ridge Lake! Cabin | 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 | $37,940 | $232 | 45% | 4.8★ (15) | 0.5 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Hilltop Boho Bungalow House | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 | $17,416 | $171 | 28% | 5★ (161) | 0.6 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Blue Ridge Delights Cabin – Quiet & Close to Town Cabin | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 | $25,353 | $163 | 43% | 4.9★ (234) | 0.6 mi | Airbnb |
A slice of Heaven! Private escape with gorgeous mountain views! Cabin | 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 6 | $53,371 | $282 | 52% | 5★ (90) | 0.7 mi | Vrbo |
Luxury Modern - VIEW - 4 acres House
| 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $8,896 | $345 | 7% | 5★ (9) | 0.7 mi | AirbnbBooking |
Take it Easy Cabin with Hot Tub- *Pet Friendly* Cabin | 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 7 | $27,191 | $148 | 50% | 4.9★ (28) | 0.7 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Cozy Cabin: w/ Balcony, Pool Table, Fire pit & BBQ Cabin
| 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $5,987 | $273 | 6% | 4.4★ (29) | 0.7 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Show 1 more
Cozy Cabin: w/ Balcony, Pool Table, Fire pit & BBQ
Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.7 mi
Revenue $9,441ADR $240Occ ≈ 11%5★ (3)
| Listing | Size | Revenue (12 mo) | ADR | Occ ≈ | Rating | Distance | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cozy Cabin: w/ Balcony, Pool Table, Fire pit & BBQ Vacation home | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $9,441 | $240 | 11% | 5★ (3) | 0.7 mi | Booking |
Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.
Cash flow calculator
Rate 8.15% = 7.40% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Oct 15) + 0.75% investor premium
Est. revenue
$30,723
NOI
$15,017
Cash flow /mo
-$143
Cash needed
$91,971
Cash-on-cash
-1.9%
ROE (yr 1)
7.9%
Cap rate
6.0%
DSCR
0.90
Year-1 write-off
$56,182
Year-1 tax shield @ 32%
$17,978
Year-1 return on equity
- Cash flow (annual)-$1,722
- Principal paydown$1,520
- Appreciation at%$7,497
Tax savings aren't counted. Turn on “Count tax savings in returns” above if you can use the losses.
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown
Annual operating expenses
- Management (20% of revenue)$6,145
- Platform fees (3% of revenue)$922
- Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,536
- Utilities & supplies$4,200
- HOA$0
- Property tax$242
- Insurance (STR-rated)$2,661
Cash needed to close
- Down payment (25%)$62,475
- Closing costs (4.0%)$9,996
- Furnishing (bought new)$19,500
Tax savings if the STR loophole applies
- Tax shield @ 32%$17,978
Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).
The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.
Cost segregation estimate
An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.
Depreciable basis
$166,000
Short-life (5/15-yr)
$37,000 · 22%
Year-1 deduction
$56,000
Year-1 tax shield @ 32%
$18,000
Land 34% (county tax record, market value split) · building $129,000 over 39 years · new furniture $20,000
Based on: ~1,900 sq ft (from beds), built 2003, 3 bd / 2 ba, unfurnished, listing features (pool, deck, fireplace, flooring types, appliance list, septic).
Try the cost segregation calculator on any property →
IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $41,000 in year 1 (13% short-life, $13,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.
- $3,100
Kitchen cabinetsdefault
$10,000 new × 40% good × 0.78 allocation
- $2,500
Kitchen countertopsdefault
$8,200 new × 40% good × 0.78 allocation
- $1,000
Decorative trimdefault
$3,300 new × 40% good × 0.78 allocation
- $100
Mirrorsdefault
$300 new × 40% good × 0.78 allocation
- $400
Shelvingdefault
$1,200 new × 40% good × 0.78 allocation
- $1,500
Window coverings (19)default
$4,800 new × 40% good × 0.78 allocation
- $3,800
Carpet, vinyl & laminate (100% of floors)listing
$12,200 new × 40% good × 0.78 allocation
- $3,300
Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault
$7,800 new × 54% good × 0.78 allocation
- $2,000
Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault
$4,700 new × 54% good × 0.78 allocation
- $1,000
Appliances (dishwasher, refrigerator)listing
$3,200 new × 40% good × 0.78 allocation
- $19,500
Furniture bought newlisting
$19,500 new × 100% good · bought separately
- $3,500
Paving: driveway & walks (paved)listing
$9,000 new × 50% good × 0.78 allocation
- $3,400
Landscaping (typical)default
$8,700 new × 50% good × 0.78 allocation
- $700
Patiosdefault
$1,900 new × 50% good × 0.78 allocation
- $8,300
Decks & porches (attached)listing
$21,400 new × 50% good × 0.78 allocation
- $1,900
Pool (above-ground)listing
$6,000 new × 40% good × 0.78 allocation
- $99,100
Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault
$206,100 new × 62% good × 0.78 allocation
- $9,000
Building plumbing & fixturesdefault
$21,400 new × 54% good × 0.78 allocation
- $9,000
Building electrical & lightingdefault
$21,400 new × 54% good × 0.78 allocation
- $6,700
HVACdefault
$21,400 new × 40% good × 0.78 allocation
- $800
Fireplacelisting
$2,600 new × 40% good × 0.78 allocation
- $4,700
Septic systemlisting
$12,000 new × 50% good × 0.78 allocation
About the property
Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study
| Year | 5-yr | 15-yr | Building | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $38,200 | $17,900 | $100 | $56,200 |
| 2 | $0 | $0 | $3,300 | $3,300 |
| 3 | $0 | $0 | $3,300 | $3,300 |
| 4 | $0 | $0 | $3,300 | $3,300 |
| 5 | $0 | $0 | $3,300 | $3,300 |
| 6+ | $0 | $0 | $115,900 | $115,900 |
| Total | $38,200 | $17,900 | $129,300 | $185,300 |
Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California, Georgia and Wisconsin disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.
Market note
Fannin and Gilmer counties require STR registration and lodging tax; no cap found. Blue Ridge and Ellijay city limits have their own rules; most cabins are in unincorporated county.