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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

30 Shepherds Ln

30 Shepherds Ln

Morganton, GA 30560

$735,000

4 bd · 4 ba · 4,064 sqft · Listed 3d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Negative cash flow

Year built

2008

Sqft

4,064

Lot sqft

55,757

HOA / mo

$58

Furnished

No

List date

2026-09-24T11:43:05.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$42,264

ADR

$255

Occupancy

45%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$7,145

Confidence

Med (58.88), 11 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$34,023$40,465$51,239

  • Suite Dreams- Secluded Private Setting | Outdoor Fun for the Family | Hot Tub

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 10 · 466 ft

    Revenue $33,363ADR $587Occ ≈ 16%4.7★ (9)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • 15% Off Summer Sale—Discount Already Applied!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $48,675ADR $281Occ ≈ 47%4.9★ (9)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Beavers Mountain Escape cabin w/ mountain views

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $31,723ADR $153Occ ≈ 57%4.9★ (70)

    Airbnb

  • Can't Bear to Leave- Views, Pet Friendly, Hot Tub

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $53,802ADR $381Occ ≈ 39%4.9★ (17)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Love You Deerly- Screened Porch, PingPong, FirePit

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $40,465ADR $365Occ ≈ 30%5★ (7)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Blue Creek Lodge, Mtn Views, Hot Tub, Game Room

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $34,683ADR $459Occ ≈ 21%—

    Booking

  • Peaceful Retreat, Mtn Views, Hot Tub, Fireplace

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $40,824ADR $473Occ ≈ 24%5★ (64)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • A View to Remember

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $37,949ADR $378Occ ≈ 28%4.8★ (140)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Bourbon Barrel Ridge

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $68,098ADR $343Occ ≈ 54%—

    Booking

  • Mountain Serenity

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $11,239ADR $312Occ ≈ 10%5★ (86)

    AirbnbVrbo

Show all 11 comps

  • Bourbon Barrel Ridge - Pets OK, Mountain Views!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $75,523ADR $402Occ ≈ 51%4.3★ (4)

    AirbnbVrbo

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$42,264

NOI

$14,875

Cash flow /mo

-$2,721

Cash needed

$242,150

Cash-on-cash

-13.5%

ROE (yr 1)

-2.4%

Cap rate

2.0%

DSCR

0.31

Year-1 write-off

$142,437

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$45,580

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$32,653
  • Principal paydown$4,810
  • Appreciation at%$22,050
ROE-2.4%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)16.4%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$8,453
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,268
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$2,113
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$696
  • Property tax$2,831
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$7,828

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$183,750
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$29,400
  • Furnishing (bought new)$29,000

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$45,580

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$710,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$112,000 · 16%

Year-1 deduction

$142,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$46,000

Land 3% (county tax record, market value split) · building $598,000 over 39 years · new furniture $29,000

Based on: 4,064 sq ft, built 2008, 4 bd / 4 ba, unfurnished, listing features (hot tub, deck, game room, fireplace, flooring types, appliance list, septic, wooded lot).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $87,000 in year 1 (8% short-life, $28,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$89,100

  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $14,700 new × 40% good × 1.48 allocation

    $8,700

  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $12,000 new × 40% good × 1.48 allocation

    $7,100

  • Decorative trimdefault

    $7,100 new × 40% good × 1.48 allocation

    $4,200

  • Mirrorsdefault

    $600 new × 40% good × 1.48 allocation

    $400

  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,500 new × 40% good × 1.48 allocation

    $900

  • Window coverings (41)default

    $10,300 new × 40% good × 1.48 allocation

    $6,100

  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (33% of floors)listing

    $8,700 new × 40% good × 1.48 allocation

    $5,200

  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $11,400 new × 64% good × 1.48 allocation

    $10,900

  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $6,900 new × 64% good × 1.48 allocation

    $6,600

  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)listing

    $8,100 new × 40% good × 1.48 allocation

    $4,800

  • Hot tub (freestanding)listing

    $9,000 new × 40% good × 1.48 allocation

    $5,300

  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $23,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $23,000

  • Game-room equipment bought newlisting

    $6,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $6,000
15-year land improvements$51,400

  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $13,200 new × 50% good × 1.48 allocation

    $9,800

  • Landscaping (minimal)listing

    $6,400 new × 50% good × 1.48 allocation

    $4,700

  • Patiosdefault

    $4,000 new × 50% good × 1.48 allocation

    $3,000

  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $45,700 new × 50% good × 1.48 allocation

    $33,900
Building, 39-year$598,000

  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $442,000 new × 70% good × 1.48 allocation

    $458,700

  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $45,900 new × 64% good × 1.48 allocation

    $43,500

  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $48,800 new × 64% good × 1.48 allocation

    $46,300

  • HVACdefault

    $45,800 new × 40% good × 1.48 allocation

    $27,200

  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $17,400 new × 40% good × 1.48 allocation

    $10,300

  • Fireplaces (2)listing

    $5,300 new × 40% good × 1.48 allocation

    $3,100

  • Septic systemlisting

    $12,000 new × 50% good × 1.48 allocation

    $8,900

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$89,100$51,400$1,900$142,400
2$0$0$15,300$15,300
3$0$0$15,300$15,300
4$0$0$15,300$15,300
5$0$0$15,300$15,300
6+$0$0$534,800$534,800
Total$89,100$51,400$598,000$738,600

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: Georgia disallows bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Fannin and Gilmer counties require STR registration and lodging tax; no cap found. Blue Ridge and Ellijay city limits have their own rules; most cabins are in unincorporated county.