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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

123 Lone Oak Dr

123 Lone Oak Dr

Blue Ridge, GA 30513

$649,900

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,960 sqft · Listed 26d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Rental historyLow confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

2006

Sqft

2,960

Lot sqft

70,132

HOA / mo

$25

Furnished

No

List date

2026-09-01T16:04:01.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$52,749

ADR

$281

Occupancy

51%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$11,745

Confidence

High (79.41), 7 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$49,047$51,386$64,155

  • GameRoom•PuttPutt•HotTub•FirePit•6 Min 2 Town

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 12 · 315 ft

    Revenue $49,436ADR $270Occ ≈ 50%4.9★ (61)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • As Good As It Gets

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $48,658ADR $289Occ ≈ 46%5★ (4)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Flowing Grace - hot tub, creek, close to downtown

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $36,989ADR $252Occ ≈ 40%4.8★ (19)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The Sugarcreek Farmhouse•Hot Tub|Theater|Fire Pit

    House · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $51,386ADR $314Occ ≈ 45%4.9★ (25)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Blue Ridge Cabin, Arcade, Creek Front, Hot Tub

    Cabin · 3 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $66,163ADR $281Occ ≈ 65%5★ (212)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • The Summit on Sunrise | Blue Ridge | Hot Tub

    House · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $62,146ADR $237Occ ≈ 72%5★ (35)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Story Book Cabin| Mnt Views| Close to DT| Hot Tub

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $68,360ADR $347Occ ≈ 54%5★ (56)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$52,749

NOI

$24,372

Cash flow /mo

-$1,471

Cash needed

$213,971

Cash-on-cash

-8.3%

ROE (yr 1)

2.8%

Cap rate

3.8%

DSCR

0.58

Year-1 write-off

$110,064

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$35,220

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$17,653
  • Principal paydown$4,253
  • Appreciation at%$19,497
ROE2.8%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)19.3%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$10,550
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,582
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$2,637
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$300
  • Property tax$2,186
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$6,921

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$162,475
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$25,996
  • Furnishing (bought new)$25,500

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$35,220

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$621,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$83,000 · 13%

Year-1 deduction

$110,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$35,000

Land 5% (county tax record, market value split) · building $538,000 over 39 years · new furniture $26,000

Based on: 2,960 sq ft, built 2006, 3 bd / 3.5 ba, unfurnished, listing features (hot tub, game room, fireplace, flooring types, appliance list, septic).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $85,000 in year 1 (9% short-life, $27,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$81,800

  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $12,300 new × 40% good × 1.90 allocation

    $9,300

  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $10,100 new × 40% good × 1.90 allocation

    $7,600

  • Decorative trimdefault

    $5,200 new × 40% good × 1.90 allocation

    $3,900

  • Mirrorsdefault

    $500 new × 40% good × 1.90 allocation

    $300

  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,200 new × 40% good × 1.90 allocation

    $900

  • Window coverings (30)default

    $7,500 new × 40% good × 1.90 allocation

    $5,700

  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $9,600 new × 60% good × 1.90 allocation

    $10,900

  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $5,800 new × 60% good × 1.90 allocation

    $6,600

  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, washer, dryer)listing

    $5,500 new × 40% good × 1.90 allocation

    $4,200

  • Hot tub (freestanding)listing

    $9,000 new × 40% good × 1.90 allocation

    $6,800

  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $19,500 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $19,500

  • Game-room equipment bought newlisting

    $6,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $6,000
15-year land improvements$26,500

  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $11,300 new × 50% good × 1.90 allocation

    $10,700

  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $10,900 new × 50% good × 1.90 allocation

    $10,300

  • Patiosdefault

    $2,900 new × 50% good × 1.90 allocation

    $2,800

  • Decks & porches (attached)default

    $2,900 new × 50% good × 1.90 allocation

    $2,800
Building, 39-year$537,800

  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $321,800 new × 67% good × 1.90 allocation

    $407,000

  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $33,400 new × 60% good × 1.90 allocation

    $38,000

  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $34,800 new × 60% good × 1.90 allocation

    $39,600

  • HVACdefault

    $33,300 new × 40% good × 1.90 allocation

    $25,300

  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $19,000 new × 40% good × 1.90 allocation

    $14,500

  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 1.90 allocation

    $2,000

  • Septic systemlisting

    $12,000 new × 50% good × 1.90 allocation

    $11,400

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$81,800$26,500$1,700$110,100
2$0$0$13,800$13,800
3$0$0$13,800$13,800
4$0$0$13,800$13,800
5$0$0$13,800$13,800
6+$0$0$480,900$480,900
Total$81,800$26,500$537,800$646,100

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: Georgia disallows bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Fannin and Gilmer counties require STR registration and lodging tax; no cap found. Blue Ridge and Ellijay city limits have their own rules; most cabins are in unincorporated county.