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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

14 Orlon Dr

14 Orlon Dr

Ellijay, GA 30540

$449,900

4 bd · 4 ba · 3,028 sqft · Listed 22d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

2005

Sqft

3,028

Lot sqft

23,958

HOA / mo

$99

Furnished

No

List date

2026-09-05T15:26:20.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$33,713

ADR

$269

Occupancy

34%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$5,775

Confidence

Low (33.66), 13 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$16,070$24,115$38,323
  • Bear Traxx | Pets Stay FREE | Sleeps 8 | Game Room |Coosawattee River Resort

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $53,039ADR $277Occ ≈ 52%4.7★ (30)

    Vrbo

  • Eagle Mountain River Retreat

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $16,070ADR $200Occ ≈ 22%4.9★ (19)

    Booking

  • Fall Cabin Hot-Tub Fire-Pit Hiking Waterfalls Wineries Resort Amenities

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $37,449ADR $297Occ ≈ 35%4.9★ (29)

    Booking

  • Eagle Mountain River Retreat

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $19,061ADR $254Occ ≈ 21%4.9★ (58)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Hearthside Hideaway - Luxury Resort Home

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $12,269ADR $266Occ ≈ 13%—

    Airbnb

  • Hearthside Hideaway | Luxury Coosawattee Cabin

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $23,800ADR $362Occ ≈ 18%4.9★ (10)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Tapp into Nature, family-sized, hot tub

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $24,115ADR $328Occ ≈ 20%4.8★ (12)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Glass Bridge Modern Masterpiece Blue Ridge Ellijay

    House · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $77,597ADR $502Occ ≈ 42%5★ (52)

    Airbnb

  • Lofty Escape Retreat

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $13,725ADR $276Occ ≈ 14%4.5★ (29)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Highridge Hideaway|Hottub |Movie Theater|3700+ SF

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $38,323ADR $340Occ ≈ 31%4.9★ (26)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

Show all 13 comps
  • Deer Hollow Sautee Cabin

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $3,645ADR $165Occ ≈ 6%4.9★ (21)

    Airbnb

  • Mountain Lookout View Firepit Hot tub & Fireplace

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $52,771ADR $266Occ ≈ 54%5★ (57)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 3800 sq foot Secluded Cabin - Movie Theater, jacuzzi and arcade

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $31,708ADR $363Occ ≈ 24%4.5★ (2)

    Vrbo

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$33,713

NOI

$10,665

Cash flow /mo

-$1,536

Cash needed

$153,471

Cash-on-cash

-12.0%

ROE (yr 1)

-1.3%

Cap rate

2.4%

DSCR

0.37

Year-1 write-off

$83,296

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$26,655

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$18,427
  • Principal paydown$2,944
  • Appreciation at%$13,497
ROE-1.3%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)16.1%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$6,743
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,011
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,686
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$1,188
  • Property tax$3,361
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$4,859

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$112,475
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$17,996
  • Furnishing (bought new)$23,000

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$26,655

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$443,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$59,000 · 13%

Year-1 deduction

$83,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$27,000

Land 2% (county tax record, market value split) · building $384,000 over 39 years · new furniture $23,000

Based on: 3,028 sq ft, built 2005, 4 bd / 4 ba, unfurnished, listing features (fireplace, flooring types, appliance list, septic).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $65,000 in year 1 (9% short-life, $21,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$62,700
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $12,400 new × 40% good × 1.37 allocation

    $6,800
  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $10,200 new × 40% good × 1.37 allocation

    $5,600
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $5,300 new × 40% good × 1.37 allocation

    $2,900
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $600 new × 40% good × 1.37 allocation

    $300
  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,500 new × 40% good × 1.37 allocation

    $800
  • Window coverings (30)default

    $7,500 new × 40% good × 1.37 allocation

    $4,100
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (25% of floors)listing

    $4,900 new × 40% good × 1.37 allocation

    $2,700
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $9,700 new × 58% good × 1.37 allocation

    $7,700
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $5,800 new × 58% good × 1.37 allocation

    $4,600
  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, refrigerator, washer, dryer)listing

    $7,700 new × 40% good × 1.37 allocation

    $4,200
  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $23,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $23,000
15-year land improvements$19,400
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $11,400 new × 50% good × 1.37 allocation

    $7,800
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $11,000 new × 50% good × 1.37 allocation

    $7,500
  • Patiosdefault

    $3,000 new × 50% good × 1.37 allocation

    $2,000
  • Decks & porches (attached)default

    $3,000 new × 50% good × 1.37 allocation

    $2,000
Building, 39-year$383,600
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $328,800 new × 65% good × 1.37 allocation

    $292,000
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $34,100 new × 58% good × 1.37 allocation

    $27,100
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $35,700 new × 58% good × 1.37 allocation

    $28,300
  • HVACdefault

    $34,100 new × 40% good × 1.37 allocation

    $18,600
  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $14,600 new × 40% good × 1.37 allocation

    $8,000
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 1.37 allocation

    $1,400
  • Septic systemlisting

    $12,000 new × 50% good × 1.37 allocation

    $8,200

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$62,700$19,400$1,200$83,300
2$0$0$9,800$9,800
3$0$0$9,800$9,800
4$0$0$9,800$9,800
5$0$0$9,800$9,800
6+$0$0$343,100$343,100
Total$62,700$19,400$383,600$465,700

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: Georgia disallows bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Fannin and Gilmer counties require STR registration and lodging tax; no cap found. Blue Ridge and Ellijay city limits have their own rules; most cabins are in unincorporated county.