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Rate 8.03% = 7.28% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Oct 1) + 0.75% investor premium

3702 Marian Lake Way

3702 Marian Lake Way

Sevierville, TN 37862

$1,100,000

4 bd · 3 ba · 2,944 sqft · Listed 1d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

2002

Sqft

2,944

Lot sqft

61,420

HOA / mo

$33

Furnished

No

List date

2026-10-02T20:08:19.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$52,699

ADR

$228

Occupancy

63%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$8,994

Confidence

Low (33.3), 14 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$23,477$37,629$68,128

Median revenue of shown comps: $59,997

  • *NEW* Lakeside Retreat! Mountain Views! Game room!

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $91,767ADR $433Occ ≈ 58%4.7★ (13)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Smokies Lakeside Retreat! Mountain Views! Gameroom

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $21,466ADR $468Occ ≈ 13%—

    Airbnb

  • Modern 4bedroom w/GameRoom/HotTub/FirePit/Backyard

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $97,355ADR $368Occ ≈ 72%5★ (123)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Retreat- Mtn View - King Beds*Arcade*Hot tub*Wi-Fi

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $30,406ADR $306Occ ≈ 27%4.8★ (122)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Stunning Mtn+Valley Views*FlatParking*Pet Friendly

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $69,458ADR $412Occ ≈ 46%4.5★ (216)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 1 acre modern farm cabin

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $22,959ADR $306Occ ≈ 21%4.5★ (16)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Wears Valley Farmhouse with lovely views

    Farm stay · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $59,997ADR $262Occ ≈ 63%5★ (69)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Serene Log Home w/Views~Easy Rds~Games~Fire Pit

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 9 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $17,263ADR $267Occ ≈ 18%4.8★ (67)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Luxury Wears Valley Cabin | Mtn Views + Hot Tub

    Cabin · 4 bd · 3.5 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.8 mi

    Revenue $95,387ADR $365Occ ≈ 72%4.7★ (32)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Management
Term

Rate 8.03% = 7.28% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Oct 1) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$52,699

NOI

$23,880

Cash flow /mo

-$4,081

Cash needed

$342,000

Cash-on-cash

-14.3%

ROE (yr 1)

-2.7%

Cap rate

2.2%

DSCR

0.33

Year-1 write-off

$167,733

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$53,675

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$48,970
  • Principal paydown$6,851
  • Appreciation at%$33,000
ROE-2.7%

Tax savings aren't counted. Turn on “Count tax savings in returns” above if you can use the losses.

Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$10,540
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,581
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$2,635
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$396
  • Property tax$2,867
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$6,600

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$275,000
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$44,000
  • Furnishing (bought new)$23,000

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$53,675

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$977,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$144,000 · 15%

Year-1 deduction

$168,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$54,000

Land 11% (county tax record, market value split) · building $834,000 over 39 years · new furniture $23,000

Based on: 2,944 sq ft, built 2002, 4 bd / 3 ba, unfurnished, listing features (hot tub, fireplace, stone counters, flooring types, appliance list, septic, wooded lot).

Try the cost segregation calculator on any property →

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $122,000 in year 1 (10% short-life, $39,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$122,100

  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $12,300 new × 40% good × 3.26 allocation

    $16,000

  • Kitchen countertops (stone)listing

    $12,500 new × 40% good × 3.26 allocation

    $16,300

  • Decorative trimdefault

    $5,200 new × 40% good × 3.26 allocation

    $6,700

  • Mirrorsdefault

    $500 new × 40% good × 3.26 allocation

    $600

  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,500 new × 40% good × 3.26 allocation

    $2,000

  • Window coverings (29)default

    $7,300 new × 40% good × 3.26 allocation

    $9,400

  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $9,500 new × 52% good × 3.26 allocation

    $16,100

  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $5,800 new × 52% good × 3.26 allocation

    $9,800

  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)listing

    $8,100 new × 40% good × 3.26 allocation

    $10,500

  • Hot tub (freestanding)listing

    $9,000 new × 40% good × 3.26 allocation

    $11,700

  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $23,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $23,000
15-year land improvements$44,700

  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $11,200 new × 50% good × 3.26 allocation

    $18,300

  • Landscaping (minimal)listing

    $5,400 new × 50% good × 3.26 allocation

    $8,800

  • Patiosdefault

    $2,900 new × 50% good × 3.26 allocation

    $4,700

  • Decks & porches (attached)default

    $2,900 new × 50% good × 3.26 allocation

    $4,700

  • Gazebo / pergolalisting

    $5,000 new × 50% good × 3.26 allocation

    $8,100
Building, 39-year$833,500

  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $319,700 new × 60% good × 3.26 allocation

    $624,500

  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $33,200 new × 52% good × 3.26 allocation

    $56,200

  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $34,600 new × 52% good × 3.26 allocation

    $58,600

  • HVACdefault

    $33,200 new × 40% good × 3.26 allocation

    $43,200

  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $18,900 new × 40% good × 3.26 allocation

    $24,700

  • Fireplaces (2)listing

    $5,300 new × 40% good × 3.26 allocation

    $6,900

  • Septic systemlisting

    $12,000 new × 50% good × 3.26 allocation

    $19,500

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$122,100$44,700$900$167,700
2$0$0$21,400$21,400
3$0$0$21,400$21,400
4$0$0$21,400$21,400
5$0$0$21,400$21,400
6+$0$0$747,100$747,100
Total$122,100$44,700$833,500$1,000,300

The building's share of the price ($977,000) is 3.3x our depreciated replacement cost of the home ($300,000). The IRS guide treats a gap this size as a reason to review the land share: if land is worth more than the county ratio says, the basis and the write-off are smaller.

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California, Georgia and Wisconsin disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

STR allowed in most of Sevier County; inside Gatlinburg city limits only in overnight-rental zones.