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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

954 Pawnee Ct

954 Pawnee Ct

Sevierville, TN 37876

$575,000

3 bd · 2 ba · 2,288 sqft · Listed 3d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Negative cash flow

Year built

2004

Sqft

2,288

Lot sqft

33,977

HOA / mo

$8

Furnished

No

List date

2026-09-24T15:22:05.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$37,378

ADR

$213

Occupancy

48%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$8,277

Confidence

Med (52.54), 8 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$17,636$25,366$40,950

  • Wildwood Refuge by American Patriot Getaways

    Apartment · 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $24,828ADR $193Occ ≈ 35%—

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  • Laurel Mountain Lodge By Avada Properties

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $38,626ADR $245Occ ≈ 43%4.2★ (2)

    Booking

  • Cabin • Stunning Views • 6-person Hot Tub

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $48,722ADR $173Occ ≈ 77%4.8★ (66)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Hot Tub • Endless Views • Smoky Mountain Escape

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $15,303ADR $233Occ ≈ 18%5★ (6)

    Airbnb

  • New! Red Maple

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $18,413ADR $290Occ ≈ 17%—

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • *Relaxing 3BD Cabin! FirePit + HOT TUB + Games!*

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $47,920ADR $302Occ ≈ 43%4.5★ (28)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Stunning Views, Hot Tub, Secluded, Free Dollywood!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $15,097ADR $243Occ ≈ 17%4.8★ (8)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Hawks Nest by Beyond Expectations: w/ Hot Tub

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $25,903ADR $177Occ ≈ 40%3.5★ (15)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$37,378

NOI

$18,213

Cash flow /mo

-$1,581

Cash needed

$186,250

Cash-on-cash

-10.2%

ROE (yr 1)

1.1%

Cap rate

3.2%

DSCR

0.49

Year-1 write-off

$138,917

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$44,453

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$18,969
  • Principal paydown$3,763
  • Appreciation at%$17,250
ROE1.1%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)25.0%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$7,476
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,121
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,869
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$96
  • Property tax$953
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$3,450

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$143,750
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$23,000
  • Furnishing (bought new)$19,500

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$44,453

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$520,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$118,000 · 23%

Year-1 deduction

$139,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$44,000

Land 10% (county tax record, market value split) · building $402,000 over 39 years · new furniture $20,000

Based on: 2,288 sq ft, built 2004, 3 bd / 2 ba, unfurnished, listing features (hot tub, deck, patio, fence, fireplace, stone counters, flooring types, appliance list).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $92,000 in year 1 (14% short-life, $29,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$76,800

  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $10,800 new × 40% good × 1.98 allocation

    $8,600

  • Kitchen countertops (stone)listing

    $11,100 new × 40% good × 1.98 allocation

    $8,800

  • Decorative trimdefault

    $4,000 new × 40% good × 1.98 allocation

    $3,200

  • Mirrorsdefault

    $300 new × 40% good × 1.98 allocation

    $200

  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,200 new × 40% good × 1.98 allocation

    $1,000

  • Window coverings (23)default

    $5,800 new × 40% good × 1.98 allocation

    $4,600

  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (33% of floors)listing

    $4,900 new × 40% good × 1.98 allocation

    $3,900

  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $8,400 new × 56% good × 1.98 allocation

    $9,300

  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $5,100 new × 56% good × 1.98 allocation

    $5,600

  • Appliances (range, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)listing

    $6,400 new × 40% good × 1.98 allocation

    $5,100

  • Hot tub (freestanding)listing

    $9,000 new × 40% good × 1.98 allocation

    $7,100

  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $19,500 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $19,500
15-year land improvements$60,900

  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $9,900 new × 50% good × 1.98 allocation

    $9,800

  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $9,500 new × 50% good × 1.98 allocation

    $9,400

  • Patioslisting

    $10,300 new × 50% good × 1.98 allocation

    $10,200

  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $25,700 new × 50% good × 1.98 allocation

    $25,500

  • Fencinglisting

    $6,000 new × 50% good × 1.98 allocation

    $5,900
Building, 39-year$401,500

  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $248,500 new × 63% good × 1.98 allocation

    $311,500

  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $25,800 new × 56% good × 1.98 allocation

    $28,600

  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $26,300 new × 56% good × 1.98 allocation

    $29,100

  • HVACdefault

    $25,800 new × 40% good × 1.98 allocation

    $20,400

  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $9,800 new × 40% good × 1.98 allocation

    $7,800

  • Fireplaces (2)listing

    $5,300 new × 40% good × 1.98 allocation

    $4,200

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$76,800$60,900$1,300$138,900
2$0$0$10,300$10,300
3$0$0$10,300$10,300
4$0$0$10,300$10,300
5$0$0$10,300$10,300
6+$0$0$359,100$359,100
Total$76,800$60,900$401,500$539,200

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: Georgia disallows bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

STR allowed in most of Sevier County; inside Gatlinburg city limits only in overnight-rental zones.