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Rate 8.15% = 7.40% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Oct 8) + 0.75% investor premium

2851 Southwinds Cir

2851 Southwinds Cir

Sevierville, TN 37876

$499,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,098 sqft · Listed 2d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

2016

Sqft

3,098

Lot sqft

9,583

HOA / mo

$10

Furnished

No

List date

2026-10-09T10:04:33.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$32,703

ADR

$223

Occupancy

40%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$8,899

Confidence

Low (—), 4 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$28,807$32,740$36,518

Few similar-size comps were found, so all comps are shown.

Median revenue of shown comps: $32,740

  • The Great Escape King suite, Kid friendly

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 1.1 mi

    Revenue $36,159ADR $318Occ ≈ 31%4.2★ (4)

    Booking

  • The Great Escape- 4 bedroom Condo- lots of space

    House · 4 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 12 · 1.1 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $29,321ADR $272Occ ≈ 30%4.8★ (81)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Carden Cabin- 4 Bedrooms, 2.5 Bathrooms, Sleeps 10

    Cabin · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 1.6 mi

    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $37,596ADR $195Occ ≈ 53%5★ (324)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Valley View Farm House

    House · 4 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 1.9 mi

    Revenue $27,264ADR $186Occ ≈ 40%5★ (62)

    Airbnb

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Management
Term

Rate 8.15% = 7.40% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Oct 8) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$32,703

NOI

$15,070

Cash flow /mo

-$1,535

Cash needed

$167,971

Cash-on-cash

-11.0%

ROE (yr 1)

-0.2%

Cap rate

3.0%

DSCR

0.45

Year-1 write-off

$101,521

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$32,487

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$18,415
  • Principal paydown$3,040
  • Appreciation at%$14,997
ROE-0.2%

Tax savings aren't counted. Turn on “Count tax savings in returns” above if you can use the losses.

Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$6,541
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$981
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,635
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$120
  • Property tax$1,157
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$2,999

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$124,975
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$19,996
  • Furnishing (bought new)$23,000

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$32,487

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$460,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$78,000 · 17%

Year-1 deduction

$102,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$32,000

Land 8% (county tax record, market value split) · building $382,000 over 39 years · new furniture $23,000

Based on: 3,098 sq ft, built 2016, 4 bd / 2.5 ba, unfurnished, listing features (deck, fence, fireplace, flooring types, appliance list).

Try the cost segregation calculator on any property →

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $64,000 in year 1 (9% short-life, $21,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$63,600

  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $12,600 new × 60% good × 1.05 allocation

    $7,900

  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $10,300 new × 60% good × 1.05 allocation

    $6,500

  • Decorative trimdefault

    $5,400 new × 60% good × 1.05 allocation

    $3,400

  • Mirrorsdefault

    $300 new × 40% good × 1.05 allocation

    $100

  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,500 new × 60% good × 1.05 allocation

    $900

  • Window coverings (31)default

    $7,800 new × 40% good × 1.05 allocation

    $3,200

  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (33% of floors)listing

    $6,600 new × 40% good × 1.05 allocation

    $2,800

  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $9,800 new × 80% good × 1.05 allocation

    $8,200

  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $5,900 new × 80% good × 1.05 allocation

    $5,000

  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator)listing

    $6,100 new × 40% good × 1.05 allocation

    $2,600

  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $23,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $23,000
15-year land improvements$37,500

  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $11,500 new × 60% good × 1.05 allocation

    $7,200

  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $11,100 new × 60% good × 1.05 allocation

    $7,000

  • Patiosdefault

    $3,100 new × 60% good × 1.05 allocation

    $1,900

  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $34,900 new × 50% good × 1.05 allocation

    $18,200

  • Fencinglisting

    $6,000 new × 50% good × 1.05 allocation

    $3,100
Building, 39-year$381,800

  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $336,700 new × 83% good × 1.05 allocation

    $293,700

  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $34,900 new × 80% good × 1.05 allocation

    $29,300

  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $36,500 new × 80% good × 1.05 allocation

    $30,600

  • HVACdefault

    $34,900 new × 50% good × 1.05 allocation

    $18,300

  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $13,300 new × 60% good × 1.05 allocation

    $8,300

  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 60% good × 1.05 allocation

    $1,700

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$63,600$37,500$400$101,500
2$0$0$9,800$9,800
3$0$0$9,800$9,800
4$0$0$9,800$9,800
5$0$0$9,800$9,800
6+$0$0$342,300$342,300
Total$63,600$37,500$381,800$482,900

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California, Georgia and Wisconsin disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

STR allowed in most of Sevier County; inside Gatlinburg city limits only in overnight-rental zones.