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Rate 8.15% = 7.40% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Oct 15) + 0.75% investor premium

527 Golf Rd

527 Golf Rd

Pigeon Forge, TN 37863

$530,000

2 bd · 2 ba · 936 sqft · Listed 1d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

2021

Sqft

936

Lot sqft

11,326

HOA / mo

None

Furnished

No

List date

2026-10-20T14:27:42.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$45,427

ADR

$183

Occupancy

68%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$9,980

Confidence

Low (35.52), 50 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$20,060$30,029$45,981

Median revenue of shown comps: $33,033

  • Cozy Cabin Retreat with Hot Tub & Fire Pit

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 26 ft

    Revenue $62,574ADR $220Occ ≈ 78%4.9★ (250)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Moosetrac Cabin-4 mins to downtown/Island/smokies.

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 118 ft

    Revenue $30,593ADR $187Occ ≈ 45%4.8★ (125)

    Airbnb

  • Firepit-Hot Tub-3 mi 2 Dllywd-Up 2 4 adlts/2 cldrn

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 190 ft

    Revenue $37,276ADR $240Occ ≈ 43%5★ (219)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Smoky Mountain Hideaway with Hot Tub & Firepit!

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 220 ft

    Revenue $51,470ADR $175Occ ≈ 81%5★ (70)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 3 mi to Dollywood FirePit/Sleeps 8/Close to GSMNP

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 282 ft

    Revenue $71,311ADR $263Occ ≈ 74%5★ (119)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Best Private P. Forge Location Mins to Dollywood

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 315 ft

    Revenue $66,024ADR $219Occ ≈ 83%5★ (394)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 3 mi to Dollywood-Sleeps 8-Firepit-Hot Tub-GSMNP

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 345 ft

    Revenue $67,178ADR $299Occ ≈ 62%5★ (266)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Family Friendly Escape, Near Downtown, Grill, Hot

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 384 ft

    Revenue $35,680ADR $235Occ ≈ 42%4.9★ (39)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Firefly Valley | 1 Mi Pkwy | Sauna | One Level

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 394 ft

    Revenue $61,011ADR $278Occ ≈ 60%5★ (39)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Paws in the Air - Fire pit and cozy hot tub!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 404 ft

    Revenue $55,515ADR $253Occ ≈ 60%4.8★ (72)

    AirbnbVrbo

Show 31 more
  • Dragonfly Grove | Sauna | Hot Tub | 1 Mi Pkwy

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 427 ft

    Revenue $73,632ADR $296Occ ≈ 68%5★ (43)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Mountain-view Hot Tub Free Tickets

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $29,465ADR $341Occ ≈ 24%—

    Airbnb

  • Bear Clubhouse - Bright spaces and a hot tub!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $43,391ADR $272Occ ≈ 44%4.5★ (80)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Great Location! Mtn Views 2BD/2BA

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $32,579ADR $231Occ ≈ 39%4.2★ (46)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • 2 King bed Condo close to Trailhead- Unit 322

    Apartment · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $3,686ADR $0Occ ≈ ——

    Vrbo

  • Serenity Ridge 312 - 1 Level/King Beds/Pool Access

    Apartment · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $24,407ADR $180Occ ≈ 37%4.8★ (22)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Cozy Cabin w/ Fire Pit & Hot Tub

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $46,122ADR $312Occ ≈ 41%—

    Vrbo

  • Serenity Ridge 322 - Pool Table/Patio/Pool Access

    Apartment · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $23,531ADR $181Occ ≈ 36%4.9★ (29)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Pigeon Forge 2 BDRM Condo - Unit 322

    Apartment · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $14,952ADR $210Occ ≈ 20%5★ (1)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Pigeon Forge 2 Bedroom Mountain Condo - Unit 312

    Apartment · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $20,905ADR $229Occ ≈ 25%4.5★ (4)

    Airbnb

  • 2 Bedroom Condo close to Trailhead- Unit 312

    Apartment · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $5,029ADR $216Occ ≈ 6%4.4★ (0)

    Vrbo

  • Cozy Cabin w/ Fire Pit & Hot Tub

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $54,978ADR $283Occ ≈ 53%4.2★ (14)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • A Dream Come True | Mountain Views | Hot Tub | Fire Pit

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $5,276ADR $159Occ ≈ 9%—

    Vrbo

  • Pigeon Forge's Favorite Family Getaway Log Cabin

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $33,033ADR $193Occ ≈ 47%4.7★ (67)

    Vrbo

  • Beautiful condo next to Golf course

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $19,944ADR $188Occ ≈ 29%4.9★ (118)

    Vrbo

  • Comfy Cabin with Hot-Tub Perfect for Family Vacation in Pigeon Forge, Tennessee

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $12,871ADR $390Occ ≈ 9%—

    VrboBooking

  • Pigeon Forge Cabin: Hot Tub, Games, EV Charger

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $91,533ADR $312Occ ≈ 80%5★ (188)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • The Bear Crossing

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $76,729ADR $321Occ ≈ 65%—

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Decorated Country Christmas 2 BR 2BA + Bunk Beds Wifi High Chair and Porta Crib

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $39,175ADR $217Occ ≈ 49%4.8★ (341)

    Vrbo

  • Delightful 2BR 2nd-Floor | Free Attraction Tickets

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $14,691ADR $150Occ ≈ 27%4.7★ (70)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Pigeon Forge - The Bear Crossing - 2 Bedrooms - Sleeps 8

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $2,374ADR $395Occ ≈ 2%—

    Vrbo

  • Smoky Bear Suite-Near Dollywood , Golf Course & Family Fun!

    Apartment · 2 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $27,610ADR $182Occ ≈ 42%5★ (58)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Dollywood Lane Getaway- 5 min to DW, pools

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Pool
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • +4

    Revenue $24,535ADR $200Occ ≈ 34%5★ (35)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Pop's Place - King Bed, Indoor Pool Access

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $32,856ADR $229Occ ≈ 39%4.5★ (39)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Prime 2BR Condo | Free Attraction Tickets | Pool

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $5,272ADR $239Occ ≈ 6%4.5★ (100)

    AirbnbBooking

  • 10% Off 4 Night Stays - Explore Pigeon Forge

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $19,333ADR $192Occ ≈ 28%4.5★ (58)

    Airbnb

  • GV 2503 - Golf View Resort w/Indoor-Outdoor Pool

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    • Hot tub
    • Pool
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • +4

    Revenue $45,557ADR $174Occ ≈ 72%4.8★ (70)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • A Hole In One

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    • Pool
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $20,408ADR $206Occ ≈ 27%4.8★ (128)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Smoky Bear 1103 | Fireplace, Balcony, Pools

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $35,231ADR $277Occ ≈ 35%3.7★ (19)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • A'Dreamin is in the heart of Pigeon Forge

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $59,878ADR $260Occ ≈ 63%4.8★ (139)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Ma & Pa's BeeHive

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.3 mi

    • Pool
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • +3

    Revenue $37,571ADR $188Occ ≈ 55%5★ (111)

    AirbnbVrbo

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Management
Term

Rate 8.15% = 7.40% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Oct 15) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$45,427

NOI

$23,336

Cash flow /mo

-$1,014

Cash needed

$169,700

Cash-on-cash

-7.2%

ROE (yr 1)

4.1%

Cap rate

4.4%

DSCR

0.66

Year-1 write-off

$147,776

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$47,288

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$12,164
  • Principal paydown$3,223
  • Appreciation at%$15,900
ROE4.1%

Tax savings aren't counted. Turn on “Count tax savings in returns” above if you can use the losses.

Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$9,085
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,363
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$2,271
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$1,991
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$3,180

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$132,500
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$21,200
  • Furnishing (bought new)$16,000

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$47,288

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$486,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$131,000 · 27%

Year-1 deduction

$148,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$47,000

Land 8% (county tax record, market value split) · building $355,000 over 39 years · new furniture $16,000

Based on: 936 sq ft, built 2021, 2 bd / 2 ba, unfurnished, listing features (deck, fireplace, appliance list, wooded lot).

Try the cost segregation calculator on any property →

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $86,000 in year 1 (14% short-life, $27,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$100,900
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $7,900 new × 80% good × 2.88 allocation

    $18,100
  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $6,400 new × 80% good × 2.88 allocation

    $14,800
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $1,600 new × 80% good × 2.88 allocation

    $3,800
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $300 new × 58% good × 2.88 allocation

    $500
  • Shelvingdefault

    $900 new × 80% good × 2.88 allocation

    $2,100
  • Window coverings (9)default

    $2,300 new × 50% good × 2.88 allocation

    $3,200
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (40% of floors)default

    $2,400 new × 58% good × 2.88 allocation

    $4,000
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $6,100 new × 90% good × 2.88 allocation

    $15,800
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $3,700 new × 90% good × 2.88 allocation

    $9,600
  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, refrigerator, washer, dryer)listing

    $7,700 new × 58% good × 2.88 allocation

    $12,900
  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $16,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $16,000
15-year land improvements$46,500
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $6,300 new × 80% good × 2.88 allocation

    $14,600
  • Landscaping (minimal)listing

    $3,100 new × 80% good × 2.88 allocation

    $7,000
  • Patiosdefault

    $900 new × 80% good × 2.88 allocation

    $2,100
  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $10,500 new × 75% good × 2.88 allocation

    $22,700
Building, 39-year$354,800
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $101,100 new × 92% good × 2.88 allocation

    $266,800
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $10,500 new × 90% good × 2.88 allocation

    $27,100
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $9,100 new × 90% good × 2.88 allocation

    $23,700
  • HVACdefault

    $10,500 new × 75% good × 2.88 allocation

    $22,800
  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $3,600 new × 80% good × 2.88 allocation

    $8,300
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 80% good × 2.88 allocation

    $6,100

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$100,900$46,500$400$147,800
2$0$0$9,100$9,100
3$0$0$9,100$9,100
4$0$0$9,100$9,100
5$0$0$9,100$9,100
6+$0$0$318,000$318,000
Total$100,900$46,500$354,800$502,200

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California, Georgia and Wisconsin disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

STR allowed in most of Sevier County; inside Gatlinburg city limits only in overnight-rental zones.