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Rate 7.99% = 7.24% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Oct 29) + 0.75% investor premium

3809 Twilight Way

3809 Twilight Way

Pigeon Forge, TN 37863

$1,125,000

4 bd · 4 ba · 2,400 sqft · Listed 1d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Negative cash flow

Year built

2023

Sqft

2,400

Lot sqft

7,841

HOA / mo

$150

Furnished

No

List date

2026-11-02T22:31:46.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$108,160

ADR

$470

Occupancy

63%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$22,136

Confidence

Med (56.92), 50 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$77,717$116,543$129,985

Median revenue of shown comps: $106,442

  • 84° Indoor Pool, 75 TV, Hot Tub, Air Hockey, WIFI

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 10 ft

    Revenue $2,612ADR $326Occ ≈ 2%5★ (2)

    Airbnb

  • Indoor Pool Cabin • 1 Min to Parkway • Sleeps 12

    House · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 23 ft

    Revenue $60,415ADR $772Occ ≈ 21%5★ (14)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Parkway Retreat: Indoor pool and 3 min to action!

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 23 ft

    Revenue $48,398ADR $493Occ ≈ 27%2★ (1)

    Airbnb

  • Views/Private pool/Hot Tub/Arcade/PS5/Parkway

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 33 ft

    Revenue $118,720ADR $545Occ ≈ 60%4.8★ (74)

    AirbnbBooking

  • 85° Private Pool | Game Room | Hot Tub | Views

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 85 ft

    Revenue $106,336ADR $492Occ ≈ 59%5★ (93)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Coaster Theme-Indoor Pool-Arcade-Hot Tub-Theatre

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 118 ft

    Revenue $129,605ADR $556Occ ≈ 64%5★ (38)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Pet-Friendly. Lux • Pool • Hot Tub • Family Games

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 121 ft

    Revenue $126,031ADR $530Occ ≈ 65%4.9★ (70)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Lux • Heated Pool • Hot Tub • Games • Pet Friendly

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 138 ft

    Revenue $122,026ADR $524Occ ≈ 64%5★ (101)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Private Indoor Pool · Hot Tub · 4BR Near Dollywood

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 10 · 164 ft

    Revenue $98,880ADR $480Occ ≈ 56%5★ (147)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 70” TV, 84° Indoor Pool, Hot Tub, Air Hockey, WIFI

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 190 ft

    Revenue $106,442ADR $489Occ ≈ 60%5★ (43)

    AirbnbVrbo

Show 27 more
  • Views! Pvt Pool! Hot tub! Pets! Parkway!Arcade PS5

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 197 ft

    Revenue $103,768ADR $553Occ ≈ 51%5★ (31)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Best Location in PF! Christmas Themed Year Round

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 220 ft

    Revenue $40,430ADR $366Occ ≈ 30%5★ (70)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • July 4th Special! • Pool • King Beds • Hot Tub

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 236 ft

    Revenue $84,382ADR $590Occ ≈ 39%4.8★ (31)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Christmas Themed All Year! Best Location in PF

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 249 ft

    Revenue $23,505ADR $392Occ ≈ 16%4.9★ (75)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Dollywood• Private 85° Pool• Hot tub. Near Parkway

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 354 ft

    Revenue $103,863ADR $475Occ ≈ 60%4.9★ (124)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • New log cabin ,private indoor heated pool, Pet Friendly, close to town

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 364 ft

    Revenue $116,665ADR $527Occ ≈ 61%4.8★ (22)

    VrboBooking

  • Indoor Pool & Hot Tub| Off the Parkway | Sleeps 12

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 387 ft

    Revenue $117,767ADR $498Occ ≈ 65%5★ (84)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • 86” TV, 85° Private Pool, Hot Tub, Theater, Arcade

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 394 ft

    Revenue $149,859ADR $483Occ ≈ 85%5★ (203)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • City Views, 85° Indoor Pool, Hot Tub, Arcade, WIFI

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 11 · 400 ft

    Revenue $145,127ADR $467Occ ≈ 85%5★ (148)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Indoor Pool, Hot Tub, Game Room + Free Tickets

    House · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 420 ft

    Revenue $63,331ADR $589Occ ≈ 29%5★ (1)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Private Pool/Hot tub/Dollywood/Games/PS5/Pets

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 423 ft

    Revenue $148,067ADR $638Occ ≈ 64%4.8★ (97)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Midnight Magic 4BR Cabin | Heated Indoor Pool

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 10 · 423 ft

    Revenue $130,112ADR $452Occ ≈ 79%5★ (94)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Walk To Parkway | Indoor Pool | Amazing Treehouse

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 423 ft

    Revenue $158,888ADR $650Occ ≈ 67%5★ (93)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Indoor Pool 85°, Private Hot Tub, Game Room, King Suites & Steps to Parkway

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 10 · 433 ft

    Revenue $126,093ADR $498Occ ≈ 69%5★ (7)

    Vrbo

  • Timber Pine Lodge Indoor Pool Hot Tub

    Vacation home · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 9 · 466 ft

    Revenue $106,874ADR $418Occ ≈ 70%—

    Booking

  • Swimming Bears 1! Amazing Pool Cabin near Parkway!

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 10 · 476 ft

    Revenue $54,325ADR $486Occ ≈ 31%4.8★ (37)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Family Cabin with Indoor Pool, Hot-Tub and Pool Table in Tennessee

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 505 ft

    Revenue $105,012ADR $551Occ ≈ 52%—

    VrboBooking

  • Prime Loc | Priv Indoor Pool | Game Loft |Hot Tub

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $121,274ADR $514Occ ≈ 65%5★ (119)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Heated 84°F Pool + Views + Game Room + Hot Tub

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $14,627ADR $516Occ ≈ 8%5★ (2)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • 85° Private Pool | Views | Game Room | Hot Tub

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $136,830ADR $543Occ ≈ 69%5★ (165)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Heated Indoor Pool • Hot Tub • Game Room

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $9,568ADR $368Occ ≈ 7%5★ (5)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Heated Indoor Pool Hot Tub Game Room Near Parkway

    Chalet · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $9,488ADR $506Occ ≈ 5%—

    Booking

  • Location Location - 4BR/4BA Cabin w/ Private Pool

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $88,252ADR $444Occ ≈ 54%4.8★ (100)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Fall Foliage|4BR|Hot Tub|Pool|Dog-Friendly

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 11 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $120,288ADR $489Occ ≈ 67%5★ (158)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Private Indoor Heated pool•Near Dollywood•4bd/4bth

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $26,333ADR $570Occ ≈ 13%5★ (3)

    Airbnb

  • Indoor Pool, Mtn Views, Arcade, Hot Tub, Location!

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $126,193ADR $641Occ ≈ 54%5★ (26)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Top 10%, Pvt Pool, Mtn Views, Arcades, A+ Location

    Cabin · 4 bd · 4 ba · sleeps 12 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $132,622ADR $603Occ ≈ 60%4.9★ (67)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Management
Term

Rate 7.99% = 7.24% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Oct 29) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$108,160

NOI

$60,765

Cash flow /mo

-$1,121

Cash needed

$355,250

Cash-on-cash

-3.8%

ROE (yr 1)

7.7%

Cap rate

5.4%

DSCR

0.82

Year-1 write-off

$370,025

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$118,408

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$13,458
  • Principal paydown$7,062
  • Appreciation at%$33,750
ROE7.7%

Tax savings aren't counted. Turn on “Count tax savings in returns” above if you can use the losses.

Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$21,632
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$3,245
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$5,408
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$1,800
  • Property tax$4,360
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$6,750

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$281,250
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$45,000
  • Furnishing (bought new)$29,000

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$118,408

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$1,019,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$340,000 · 33%

Year-1 deduction

$370,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$118,000

Land 9% (county tax record, market value split) · building $679,000 over 39 years · new furniture $29,000

Based on: 2,400 sq ft, built 2023, 4 bd / 4 ba, unfurnished, listing features (hot tub, pool, deck, game room, fireplace, flooring types, appliance list).

Try the cost segregation calculator on any property →

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $274,000 in year 1 (24% short-life, $88,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$160,300
  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $11,100 new × 88% good × 2.10 allocation

    $20,400
  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $9,000 new × 88% good × 2.10 allocation

    $16,700
  • Decorative trimdefault

    $4,200 new × 88% good × 2.10 allocation

    $7,700
  • Mirrorsdefault

    $600 new × 75% good × 2.10 allocation

    $900
  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,500 new × 88% good × 2.10 allocation

    $2,800
  • Window coverings (24)default

    $6,000 new × 70% good × 2.10 allocation

    $8,800
  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (100% of floors)listing

    $15,400 new × 75% good × 2.10 allocation

    $24,300
  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $8,600 new × 94% good × 2.10 allocation

    $16,900
  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $5,200 new × 94% good × 2.10 allocation

    $10,200
  • Appliances (microwave, dishwasher, refrigerator, washer, dryer)listing

    $5,900 new × 75% good × 2.10 allocation

    $9,300
  • Hot tub (freestanding)listing

    $9,000 new × 70% good × 2.10 allocation

    $13,200
  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $23,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $23,000
  • Game-room equipment bought newlisting

    $6,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $6,000
15-year land improvements$209,000
  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $10,200 new × 88% good × 2.10 allocation

    $18,700
  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $9,800 new × 88% good × 2.10 allocation

    $18,000
  • Patiosdefault

    $2,400 new × 88% good × 2.10 allocation

    $4,400
  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $27,000 new × 85% good × 2.10 allocation

    $48,100
  • Pool (in-ground)listing

    $65,000 new × 88% good × 2.10 allocation

    $119,800
Building, 39-year$678,600
  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $260,100 new × 95% good × 2.10 allocation

    $517,800
  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $27,000 new × 94% good × 2.10 allocation

    $53,200
  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $27,700 new × 94% good × 2.10 allocation

    $54,500
  • HVACdefault

    $27,000 new × 85% good × 2.10 allocation

    $48,200
  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 88% good × 2.10 allocation

    $4,900

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$160,300$209,000$700$370,000
2$0$0$17,400$17,400
3$0$0$17,400$17,400
4$0$0$17,400$17,400
5$0$0$17,400$17,400
6+$0$0$608,200$608,200
Total$160,300$209,000$678,600$1,047,900

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California, Georgia and Wisconsin disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

STR allowed in most of Sevier County; inside Gatlinburg city limits only in overnight-rental zones.