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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

19985 Northwoods Dr

19985 Northwoods Dr

Lakehead, CA 96051

$439,000

3 bd · 2 ba · 2,184 sqft · Listed 9d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Negative cash flow

Year built

1973

Sqft

2,184

Lot sqft

102,366

HOA / mo

None

Furnished

No

List date

2026-09-20T04:08:50.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$42,977

ADR

$273

Occupancy

43%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$5,365

Confidence

Low (48.36), 9 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$32,081$42,224$58,127

  • Gorgeous House with a Dream View of Shasta lake!

    House · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 2.1 mi

    Revenue $32,081ADR $383Occ ≈ 23%5★ (5)

    Airbnb

  • Fort Bigfoot! A Geek's Paradise

    House · 3 bd · 3 ba · sleeps 10 · 2.3 mi

    Revenue $36,367ADR $612Occ ≈ 16%5★ (7)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Lovely mountain home w/ huge deck and forest view

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 2.3 mi

    Revenue $60,733ADR $295Occ ≈ 56%4.8★ (122)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Lakehead Retreat 31 day 1mo min 4k+ fees LTR

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 2.4 mi

    Revenue $12,268ADR $281Occ ≈ 12%5★ (10)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Dream View Lake House

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 2.4 mi

    Revenue $58,127ADR $489Occ ≈ 33%4.9★ (443)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Shasta Casa | Tranquil Forest & Easy Lake Access!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 2.5 mi

    Revenue $42,224ADR $237Occ ≈ 49%4.8★ (109)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Lakehead Corporate Retreat Near Shasta | Sleeps 8

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 2.5 mi

    Revenue $6,594ADR $157Occ ≈ 12%—

    Airbnb

  • Foxfell At Shasta Lake: "Stunning Views" • "Very Private" • "Coziest Beds"

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 12 · 2.7 mi

    Revenue $50,307ADR $358Occ ≈ 38%5★ (3)

    Vrbo

  • Private 4 acres near lake, perfect view & location

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 12 · 2.7 mi

    Revenue $65,972ADR $353Occ ≈ 51%4.9★ (8)

    AirbnbBooking

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$42,977

NOI

$19,346

Cash flow /mo

-$753

Cash needed

$152,810

Cash-on-cash

-5.9%

ROE (yr 1)

4.6%

Cap rate

4.4%

DSCR

0.68

Year-1 write-off

$106,002

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$33,921

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$9,041
  • Principal paydown$2,873
  • Appreciation at%$13,170
ROE4.6%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)26.8%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$8,595
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$1,289
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$2,149
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$5,488
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$2,568

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$109,750
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$17,560
  • Furnishing (bought new)$25,500

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$33,921

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$305,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$80,000 · 26%

Year-1 deduction

$106,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$34,000

Land 31% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $225,000 over 39 years · new furniture $26,000

Based on: 2,184 sq ft, built 1973, 3 bd / 2 ba, unfurnished, listing features (deck, patio, game room, fireplace, appliance list, septic).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $69,000 in year 1 (14% short-life, $22,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$60,700

  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $10,600 new × 40% good × 1.67 allocation

    $7,100

  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $8,700 new × 40% good × 1.67 allocation

    $5,800

  • Decorative trimdefault

    $3,800 new × 40% good × 1.67 allocation

    $2,600

  • Mirrorsdefault

    $300 new × 40% good × 1.67 allocation

    $200

  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,200 new × 40% good × 1.67 allocation

    $800

  • Window coverings (22)default

    $5,500 new × 40% good × 1.67 allocation

    $3,700

  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (40% of floors)default

    $5,600 new × 40% good × 1.67 allocation

    $3,800

  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $8,200 new × 40% good × 1.67 allocation

    $5,500

  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $5,000 new × 40% good × 1.67 allocation

    $3,300

  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal)listing

    $3,900 new × 40% good × 1.67 allocation

    $2,600

  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $19,500 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $19,500

  • Game-room equipment bought newlisting

    $6,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $6,000
15-year land improvements$44,500

  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)listing

    $9,700 new × 50% good × 1.67 allocation

    $8,100

  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $9,300 new × 50% good × 1.67 allocation

    $7,800

  • Patioslisting

    $9,800 new × 50% good × 1.67 allocation

    $8,200

  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $24,600 new × 50% good × 1.67 allocation

    $20,500
Building, 39-year$225,100

  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $237,100 new × 40% good × 1.67 allocation

    $158,200

  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $24,600 new × 40% good × 1.67 allocation

    $16,400

  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $25,000 new × 40% good × 1.67 allocation

    $16,700

  • HVACdefault

    $24,600 new × 40% good × 1.67 allocation

    $16,400

  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $8,400 new × 40% good × 1.67 allocation

    $5,600

  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 1.67 allocation

    $1,800

  • Septic systemlisting

    $12,000 new × 50% good × 1.67 allocation

    $10,000

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$60,700$44,500$700$106,000
2$0$0$5,800$5,800
3$0$0$5,800$5,800
4$0$0$5,800$5,800
5$0$0$5,800$5,800
6+$0$0$201,300$201,300
Total$60,700$44,500$225,100$330,400

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Rules differ by jurisdiction. City of Redding caps whole-home vacation rentals at 400 with a 600 ft spacing rule (300 ft with a physical buffer), and its permit is NOT transferable to a new owner. Shasta Lake city and unincorporated Shasta County allow permitted rentals with no cap found, but permits also do not transfer on sale. Lodging tax ~10% plus a 2% tourism assessment in Redding. Verify parcel eligibility with the city or county before you buy.