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Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

160 Lakeview Tract

160 Lakeview Tract

Fawnskin, CA 92333

$219,000

2 bd · 1 ba · 624 sqft · Listed 31d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidenceNegative cash flow

Year built

1920

Sqft

624

Lot sqft

17,999

HOA / mo

$0

Furnished

No

List date

2026-08-29T04:18:22.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$24,331

ADR

$189

Occupancy

35%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$5,279

Confidence

Low (32.64), 49 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$10,472$23,824$33,968

  • Cozy Family Cabin Getaway Big Bear~ Mins To Activities

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.8 mi

    Revenue $2,552ADR $157Occ ≈ 4%—

    Booking

  • Beautiful Two-Bedroom Condo Close to The Village

    Serviced apartment · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 1.0 mi

    Revenue $23,078ADR $236Occ ≈ 27%4.8★ (35)

    Airbnb

  • 2bdm Condo Big Bear WM Resort#2

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 1.1 mi

    Revenue $2,399ADR $402Occ ≈ 2%4.8★ (18)

    Airbnb

  • Big Bear Retreat

    Apartment · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 1.1 mi

    Revenue $15,833ADR $226Occ ≈ 19%—

    Airbnb

  • Two Bedroom Southern Cali Mountain Escape

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 1.1 mi

    Revenue $2,695ADR $289Occ ≈ 3%—

    Airbnb

  • Nestled in Big Bear Lake's 2BR!

    Serviced apartment · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 1.1 mi

    Revenue $35,006ADR $231Occ ≈ 42%5★ (1)

    Airbnb

  • Big Bear 2 Bdrm SN Condo Resort

    Apartment · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 1.1 mi

    Revenue $45,855ADR $203Occ ≈ 62%5★ (4)

    Airbnb

  • Big Bear - 2BR

    Serviced apartment · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 1.1 mi

    Revenue $6,633ADR $239Occ ≈ 8%4.5★ (9)

    Airbnb

  • Big Bear - 2BR #2

    Serviced apartment · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 1.1 mi

    Revenue $5,397ADR $295Occ ≈ 5%4.8★ (11)

    Airbnb

  • 2bdm-sleeps 6 Cabin BB WorldMark

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 1.2 mi

    Revenue $2,570ADR $328Occ ≈ 2%4.8★ (14)

    Airbnb

Show all 49 comps

  • Two Bedroom Condo in Big Bear Lake

    Apartment · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 1.2 mi

    Revenue $4,368ADR $234Occ ≈ 5%—

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Game Room + Deck: Wooded Big Bear Lake Retreat

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 1.2 mi

    Revenue $36,184ADR $284Occ ≈ 35%4.7★ (23)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • 2 miles to Skiing - 2 Bedroom/2 Bath ~Hot Tub~Pool

    Serviced apartment · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 1.2 mi

    Revenue $26,614ADR $225Occ ≈ 32%4.8★ (20)

    Airbnb

  • Peaceful beauty Big Bear

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 1.2 mi

    Revenue $10,472ADR $351Occ ≈ 8%—

    Airbnb

  • Big Bear 2 Bedroom Home (1)

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 1.2 mi

    Revenue $22,219ADR $383Occ ≈ 16%4.8★ (7)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Cozy! Heart of Big Bear+CH+SpaTub+ Mins to Resort!

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 1.2 mi

    Revenue $32,412ADR $498Occ ≈ 18%4.9★ (16)

    Airbnb

  • Eagle Point Retreat

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 1.2 mi

    Revenue $27,020ADR $257Occ ≈ 29%5★ (33)

    Airbnb

  • Big Bear Lake Two-Bedroom Condo - Sleeps 6

    Serviced apartment · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 1.2 mi

    Revenue $21,672ADR $236Occ ≈ 25%4.7★ (15)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Big Bear 2 Bdrm Condo Resort

    Apartment · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 1.2 mi

    Revenue $30,583ADR $211Occ ≈ 40%5★ (3)

    Airbnb

  • Central, Lakefront with Spa and Putting Green!

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 1.2 mi

    Revenue $68,122ADR $839Occ ≈ 22%4.9★ (8)

    Airbnb

  • Your Big Bear Getaway Awaits You!

    Condominium (condo) · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 1.2 mi

    Revenue $4,586ADR $439Occ ≈ 3%—

    Airbnb

  • Big Bear Lake - 2Bed/2Bath Queen

    Serviced apartment · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 1.2 mi

    Revenue $28,346ADR $292Occ ≈ 27%5★ (1)

    Airbnb

  • Spacious 2BR Retreat in Big Bear – Cozy & Scenic!

    Apartment · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 1.3 mi

    Revenue $33,968ADR $216Occ ≈ 43%—

    Airbnb

  • 2bdm Condo Big Bear WM Resort

    Place · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 1.3 mi

    Revenue $925ADR $402Occ ≈ 1%4.8★ (19)

    Airbnb

  • Fireplace, Deck, Walk to Lake & Village

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 3 · 1.3 mi

    Revenue $19,519ADR $206Occ ≈ 26%4.7★ (62)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Lakeside Cabin Big Yard 4 Kids & Pets Firepit EV

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 1.3 mi

    Revenue $49,115ADR $296Occ ≈ 45%5★ (60)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Hot Tub! Fenced Yard! Close To The Lake!

    House · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 1.3 mi

    Revenue $28,182ADR $206Occ ≈ 37%4.7★ (103)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Walk2Village*Spa, Pool Table &Pets OK*

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 1.3 mi

    Revenue $3,865ADR $303Occ ≈ 3%4.8★ (17)

    Airbnb

  • Lake Cabin King Bed Huge Yard 4 Kids/Dogs Fire Pit

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 1.3 mi

    Revenue $6,514ADR $260Occ ≈ 7%5★ (140)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Sleepy Bear

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 1.4 mi

    Revenue $31,498ADR $433Occ ≈ 20%5★ (1)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Our Little Dome Home - Fun in Big Bear!

    Dome house · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 1.4 mi

    Revenue $7,971ADR $278Occ ≈ 8%5★ (147)

    Airbnb

  • Eagle Point Walk to Lake & Hot Tub

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 1.4 mi

    Revenue $10,513ADR $191Occ ≈ 15%4.8★ (8)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • The Rusthy Bear: Central Location! Propane BBQ!

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 1.4 mi

    Revenue $30,200ADR $206Occ ≈ 40%4.8★ (183)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 5 Min Drive to Summit, Lake/Village•Spa•AC•Family

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 1.4 mi

    Revenue $12,601ADR $326Occ ≈ 11%5★ (18)

    Airbnb

  • Piece of Paradise Walk 2 Lake/Garage/Fenced Yard

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 1.4 mi

    Revenue $23,824ADR $271Occ ≈ 24%4.8★ (59)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Lakeview Location Hot tub Tesla Charger tree house

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 4 · 1.4 mi

    Revenue $35,453ADR $248Occ ≈ 39%4.8★ (51)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Mockingbird Mountain Getaway- Walk to Lake Retreat

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 1.4 mi

    Revenue $27,659ADR $389Occ ≈ 19%—

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Quail's Call Big Bear~ Walk to Lake & Ski Resort

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 1.4 mi

    Revenue $25,921ADR $617Occ ≈ 12%—

    Booking

  • Great location to Ski Resorts! Pet Friendly/Garage

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 1.4 mi

    Revenue $19,305ADR $283Occ ≈ 19%5★ (2)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Kozy Cabin at Big Bear- Log Cabin Retreat Cottage

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 3 · 1.5 mi

    Revenue $41,020ADR $277Occ ≈ 41%4.8★ (19)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Kozy Cabin Big Bear~ Walk to Village & Lake Cottage~

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 3 · 1.5 mi

    Revenue $41,959ADR $336Occ ≈ 34%5★ (1)

    Booking

  • Cute Cabin Near Slopes, Walk to Fireworks!

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 1.5 mi

    Revenue $13,793ADR $243Occ ≈ 16%4.5★ (21)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Sleepy Forest S12- Family cabin

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 1.5 mi

    Revenue $22,661ADR $156Occ ≈ 40%4.3★ (88)

    Airbnb

  • Fenced Yard, Central AC, Heat, Spa, Sauna, Dogs OK

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 5 · 1.5 mi

    Revenue $64,217ADR $216Occ ≈ 81%5★ (163)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Chic Cabin Retreat with Hot Tub Big Bear

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 1.5 mi

    Revenue $47,890ADR $228Occ ≈ 58%4.9★ (30)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • 2191-Pine Cone Cottage

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 1.5 mi

    Revenue $38,619ADR $312Occ ≈ 34%4.6★ (14)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Modern and Clean with a Spa! Close to Snow Summit.

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 1.5 mi

    Revenue $33,758ADR $284Occ ≈ 33%4.8★ (198)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Pine Cone Cottage at Big Bear Village

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 5 · 1.5 mi

    Revenue $39,068ADR $283Occ ≈ 38%4.6★ (31)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Cozy Fox #2035 by Big Bear Vacations

    Vacation home · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 3 · 1.5 mi

    Revenue $17,647ADR $233Occ ≈ 21%4.8★ (3)

    Booking

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Term

Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium

Est. revenue

$24,331

NOI

$9,792

Cash flow /mo

-$364

Cash needed

$79,510

Cash-on-cash

-5.5%

ROE (yr 1)

4.6%

Cap rate

4.5%

DSCR

0.69

Year-1 write-off

$83,918

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$26,854

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)-$4,369
  • Principal paydown$1,433
  • Appreciation at%$6,570
ROE4.6%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)38.3%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$4,866
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$730
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,217
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$2,738
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$1,117

Cash needed to close

  • Down payment (25%)$54,750
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$8,760
  • Furnishing (bought new)$16,000

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$26,854

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$200,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$67,000 · 34%

Year-1 deduction

$84,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$27,000

Land 9% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $133,000 over 39 years · new furniture $16,000

Based on: 624 sq ft, built 1920, 2 bd / 1 ba, unfurnished, listing features (fireplace, appliance list).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $61,000 in year 1 (22% short-life, $19,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$62,500

  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $7,200 new × 40% good × 3.64 allocation

    $10,400

  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $5,900 new × 40% good × 3.64 allocation

    $8,500

  • Decorative trimdefault

    $1,100 new × 40% good × 3.64 allocation

    $1,600

  • Mirrorsdefault

    $200 new × 40% good × 3.64 allocation

    $200

  • Shelvingdefault

    $900 new × 40% good × 3.64 allocation

    $1,300

  • Window coverings (6)default

    $1,500 new × 40% good × 3.64 allocation

    $2,200

  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (40% of floors)default

    $1,600 new × 40% good × 3.64 allocation

    $2,300

  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $5,600 new × 40% good × 3.64 allocation

    $8,100

  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $3,400 new × 40% good × 3.64 allocation

    $4,900

  • Appliances (range, microwave, refrigerator)listing

    $4,700 new × 40% good × 3.64 allocation

    $6,800

  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $16,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $16,000
15-year land improvements$20,700

  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $5,200 new × 50% good × 3.64 allocation

    $9,400

  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $5,000 new × 50% good × 3.64 allocation

    $9,100

  • Patiosdefault

    $600 new × 50% good × 3.64 allocation

    $1,100

  • Decks & porches (attached)default

    $600 new × 50% good × 3.64 allocation

    $1,100
Building, 39-year$132,900

  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $67,100 new × 40% good × 3.64 allocation

    $97,700

  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $6,900 new × 40% good × 3.64 allocation

    $10,100

  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $5,200 new × 40% good × 3.64 allocation

    $7,500

  • HVACdefault

    $7,000 new × 40% good × 3.64 allocation

    $10,200

  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $2,400 new × 40% good × 3.64 allocation

    $3,500

  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 3.64 allocation

    $3,800

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$62,500$20,700$700$83,900
2$0$0$3,400$3,400
3$0$0$3,400$3,400
4$0$0$3,400$3,400
5$0$0$3,400$3,400
6+$0$0$118,600$118,600
Total$62,500$20,700$132,900$216,100

The building's share of the price ($200,000) is 3.6x our depreciated replacement cost of the home ($55,000). The IRS guide treats a gap this size as a reason to review the land share: if land is worth more than the county ratio says, the basis and the write-off are smaller.

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.