1627 Baldwin Lk
Big Bear City, CA 92314
$395,000
2 bd · 1 ba · 915 sqft · Listed 15d ago
View on Realtor.com →Year built
1984
Sqft
915
Lot sqft
28,858
HOA / mo
$0
Furnished
Yes
List date
2026-09-14T19:09:14.000000Z
Revenue
Annual revenue
$17,062
ADR
$164
Occupancy
29%
Cleaning fees (12 mo)
$2,941
Confidence
Low (42.33), 8 comps
Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)
Big Bear Log Home -view of ski slopes
Cabin · 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi
Revenue $7,613ADR $240Occ ≈ 9%4.8★ (236)
Near PCT & Epic Off-Roading, Dedicated Workspaces
Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi
Revenue $22,020ADR $155Occ ≈ 39%5★ (21)
Near PCT & Epic Off-Roading, Dedicated Workspace
Cabin · 1 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 2 · 0.2 mi
Revenue $12,232ADR $71Occ ≈ 47%5★ (5)
Studio in Forest - Close to PCT Trail
Guest suite · 1 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 2 · 0.5 mi
Revenue $14,857ADR $153Occ ≈ 27%5★ (25)
| Listing | Size | Revenue (12 mo) | ADR | Occ ≈ | Rating | Distance | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sweet Dreams🌟 Cabin✨️ + Mountain View ⛰️ Cabin | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $21,910 | $165 | 36% | 4.8★ (106) | 413 ft | AirbnbVrbo |
Big Bear Log Home -view of ski slopes Cabin | 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 | $7,613 | $240 | 9% | 4.8★ (236) | 0.1 mi | Airbnb |
Near PCT & Epic Off-Roading, Dedicated Workspaces Cabin | 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 | $22,020 | $155 | 39% | 5★ (21) | 0.2 mi | Airbnb |
Near PCT & Epic Off-Roading, Dedicated Workspace Cabin | 1 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 2 | $12,232 | $71 | 47% | 5★ (5) | 0.2 mi | Airbnb |
Baldwin Eagle Lodge Cabin | 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 | $12,705 | $413 | 8% | 4.9★ (142) | 0.3 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Diba's cabin Cabin | 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $389 | $389 | 0% | 5★ (2) | 0.3 mi | Airbnb |
The Hidden Cabin Cabin | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $26,402 | $269 | 27% | 4.8★ (26) | 0.4 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Studio in Forest - Close to PCT Trail Guest suite | 1 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 2 | $14,857 | $153 | 27% | 5★ (25) | 0.5 mi | Airbnb |
Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.
Cash flow calculator
Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium
Est. revenue
$17,062
NOI
$1,725
Cash flow /mo
-$1,985
Cash needed
$114,550
Cash-on-cash
-20.8%
ROE (yr 1)
-8.2%
Cap rate
0.4%
DSCR
0.07
Year-1 write-off
$108,227
Year-1 tax shield @ 32%
$34,633
Year-1 return on equity
- Cash flow (annual)-$23,817
- Principal paydown$2,585
- Appreciation at%$11,850
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown
Annual operating expenses
- Management (20% of revenue)$3,412
- Platform fees (3% of revenue)$512
- Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$853
- Utilities & supplies$4,200
- HOA$0
- Property tax$4,938
- Insurance (STR-rated)$2,015
Cash needed to close
- Down payment (25%)$98,750
- Closing costs (4.0%)$15,800
- Furnishing (conveyed with the sale)$0
Tax savings if the STR loophole applies
- Tax shield @ 32%$34,633
Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).
The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.
Cost segregation estimate
An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.
Depreciable basis
$317,000
Short-life (5/15-yr)
$108,000 · 34%
Year-1 deduction
$108,000
Year-1 tax shield @ 32%
$35,000
Land 20% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $210,000 over 39 years
Based on: 915 sq ft, built 1984, 2 bd / 1 ba, furnished, listing features (deck, patio, fireplace, flooring types, septic).
IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $67,000 in year 1 (21% short-life, $21,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.
- $10,900
Kitchen cabinetsdefault
$7,800 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation
- $8,900
Kitchen countertopsdefault
$6,400 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation
- $2,200
Decorative trimdefault
$1,600 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation
- $200
Mirrorsdefault
$200 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation
- $1,300
Shelvingdefault
$900 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation
- $3,100
Window coverings (9)default
$2,300 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation
- $2,700
Carpet, vinyl & laminate (33% of floors)listing
$2,000 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation
- $8,500
Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault
$6,100 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation
- $5,100
Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault
$3,700 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation
- $11,300
Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)default
$8,100 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation
- $6,400
Furniture conveyed with the sale (used)listing
$16,000 new × 40% good · out of the price
- $11,000
Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default
$6,300 new × 50% good × 3.50 allocation
- $10,600
Landscaping (typical)default
$6,000 new × 50% good × 3.50 allocation
- $7,200
Patioslisting
$4,100 new × 50% good × 3.50 allocation
- $18,000
Decks & porches (attached)listing
$10,300 new × 50% good × 3.50 allocation
- $138,400
Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault
$98,900 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation
- $14,300
Building plumbing & fixturesdefault
$10,200 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation
- $12,400
Building electrical & lightingdefault
$8,900 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation
- $14,400
HVACdefault
$10,300 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation
- $5,500
Hardwood & tile floorsdefault
$3,900 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation
- $3,700
Fireplacelisting
$2,600 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation
- $21,000
Septic systemlisting
$12,000 new × 50% good × 3.50 allocation
About the property
Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study
| Year | 5-yr | 15-yr | Building | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $60,800 | $46,700 | $700 | $108,200 |
| 2 | $0 | $0 | $5,400 | $5,400 |
| 3 | $0 | $0 | $5,400 | $5,400 |
| 4 | $0 | $0 | $5,400 | $5,400 |
| 5 | $0 | $0 | $5,400 | $5,400 |
| 6+ | $0 | $0 | $187,500 | $187,500 |
| Total | $60,800 | $46,700 | $209,700 | $317,300 |
The building's share of the price ($311,000) is 3.5x our depreciated replacement cost of the home ($89,000). The IRS guide treats a gap this size as a reason to review the land share: if land is worth more than the county ratio says, the basis and the write-off are smaller.
Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.
Market note
Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.