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1627 Baldwin Lk

1627 Baldwin Lk

Big Bear City, CA 92314

$395,000

2 bd · 1 ba · 915 sqft · Listed 15d ago

View on Realtor.com →

Year built

1984

Sqft

915

Lot sqft

28,858

HOA / mo

$0

Furnished

Yes

List date

2026-09-14T19:09:14.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$17,062

ADR

$164

Occupancy

29%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$2,941

Confidence

Low (42.33), 8 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$11,077$13,781$21,938

  • Sweet Dreams🌟 Cabin✨️ + Mountain View ⛰️

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 413 ft

    Revenue $21,910ADR $165Occ ≈ 36%4.8★ (106)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Big Bear Log Home -view of ski slopes

    Cabin · 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $7,613ADR $240Occ ≈ 9%4.8★ (236)

    Airbnb

  • Near PCT & Epic Off-Roading, Dedicated Workspaces

    Cabin · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $22,020ADR $155Occ ≈ 39%5★ (21)

    Airbnb

  • Near PCT & Epic Off-Roading, Dedicated Workspace

    Cabin · 1 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 2 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $12,232ADR $71Occ ≈ 47%5★ (5)

    Airbnb

  • Baldwin Eagle Lodge

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $12,705ADR $413Occ ≈ 8%4.9★ (142)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Diba's cabin

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $389ADR $389Occ ≈ 0%5★ (2)

    Airbnb

  • The Hidden Cabin

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $26,402ADR $269Occ ≈ 27%4.8★ (26)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Studio in Forest - Close to PCT Trail

    Guest suite · 1 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 2 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $14,857ADR $153Occ ≈ 27%5★ (25)

    Airbnb

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing

Est. revenue

$17,062

NOI

$1,725

Cash flow /mo

$144

Cash needed

$410,800

Cash-on-cash (all cash)

0.4%

ROE (yr 1)

3.3%

Cap rate

0.4%

DSCR

—

Year-1 write-off

$108,227

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$34,633

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)$1,725
  • Principal paydown (n/a, cash)$0
  • Appreciation at%$11,850
ROE3.3%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)11.7%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$3,412
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$512
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$853
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$4,938
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$2,015

Cash needed to close

  • Purchase price (all cash)$395,000
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$15,800
  • Furnishing (conveyed with the sale)$0

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$34,633

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$317,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$108,000 · 34%

Year-1 deduction

$108,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$35,000

Land 20% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $210,000 over 39 years

Based on: 915 sq ft, built 1984, 2 bd / 1 ba, furnished, listing features (deck, patio, fireplace, flooring types, septic).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $67,000 in year 1 (21% short-life, $21,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$60,800

  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $7,800 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation

    $10,900

  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $6,400 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation

    $8,900

  • Decorative trimdefault

    $1,600 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation

    $2,200

  • Mirrorsdefault

    $200 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation

    $200

  • Shelvingdefault

    $900 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation

    $1,300

  • Window coverings (9)default

    $2,300 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation

    $3,100

  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (33% of floors)listing

    $2,000 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation

    $2,700

  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $6,100 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation

    $8,500

  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $3,700 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation

    $5,100

  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)default

    $8,100 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation

    $11,300

  • Furniture conveyed with the sale (used)listing

    $16,000 new × 40% good · out of the price

    $6,400
15-year land improvements$46,700

  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $6,300 new × 50% good × 3.50 allocation

    $11,000

  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $6,000 new × 50% good × 3.50 allocation

    $10,600

  • Patioslisting

    $4,100 new × 50% good × 3.50 allocation

    $7,200

  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $10,300 new × 50% good × 3.50 allocation

    $18,000
Building, 39-year$209,700

  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $98,900 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation

    $138,400

  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $10,200 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation

    $14,300

  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $8,900 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation

    $12,400

  • HVACdefault

    $10,300 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation

    $14,400

  • Hardwood & tile floorsdefault

    $3,900 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation

    $5,500

  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 3.50 allocation

    $3,700

  • Septic systemlisting

    $12,000 new × 50% good × 3.50 allocation

    $21,000

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$60,800$46,700$700$108,200
2$0$0$5,400$5,400
3$0$0$5,400$5,400
4$0$0$5,400$5,400
5$0$0$5,400$5,400
6+$0$0$187,500$187,500
Total$60,800$46,700$209,700$317,300

The building's share of the price ($311,000) is 3.5x our depreciated replacement cost of the home ($89,000). The IRS guide treats a gap this size as a reason to review the land share: if land is worth more than the county ratio says, the basis and the write-off are smaller.

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.