866 Lakewood Dr
Big Bear, CA 92314
$449,400
3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,356 sqft · Listed 13d ago
View on Realtor.com →Year built
1968
Sqft
1,356
Lot sqft
7,296
HOA / mo
$0
Furnished
No
List date
2026-09-16T19:58:55.000000Z
Revenue
Annual revenue
$20,126
ADR
$225
Occupancy
25%
Cleaning fees (12 mo)
$3,742
Confidence
Low (37.44), 25 comps
Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)
3rd Night FREE Blue Snowflake Big Bear Mtn. Resort
Cabin · 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi
Revenue $3,876ADR $343Occ ≈ 3%5★ (1)
Hershey Bear Cabin:NEW! Igloo,Hot Tub,Dog Friendly
Cabin · 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi
Revenue $38,403ADR $409Occ ≈ 26%4.9★ (47)
| Listing | Size | Revenue (12 mo) | ADR | Occ ≈ | Rating | Distance | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lincoln Log Cabin | Renovated | Near Attractions House | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $13,764 | $366 | 10% | 4.5★ (8) | 499 ft | AirbnbVrboBooking |
A Frame Escape ! Fully fenced! Cabin | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $20,640 | $134 | 42% | 4.5★ (165) | 0.1 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Bluebird Haven Cabin | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $10,517 | $272 | 11% | 5★ (19) | 0.1 mi | Airbnb |
Cozy Cabin on Sixth - FREE EV Charging! Cabin | 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 8 | $446 | $223 | 1% | 4.9★ (41) | 0.1 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Big Bear Getaway! Chalet | 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 | $28,638 | $185 | 42% | 4.7★ (222) | 0.2 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
3rd Night FREE Blue Snowflake Big Bear Mtn. Resort Cabin | 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 10 | $3,876 | $343 | 3% | 5★ (1) | 0.2 mi | Airbnb |
Hershey Bear Cabin:NEW! Igloo,Hot Tub,Dog Friendly Cabin | 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 | $38,403 | $409 | 26% | 4.9★ (47) | 0.2 mi | Airbnb |
Cedar Creek House | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $14,454 | $229 | 17% | 4.6★ (62) | 0.2 mi | Airbnb |
Gorgeous Newly Remodeled Cabin Minutes from slopes House | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $14,251 | $240 | 16% | 5★ (35) | 0.2 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
'The Bear's Den' Cabin: 8 Mi to Snow Summit! Cabin | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $20,669 | $336 | 17% | 4.2★ (55) | 0.3 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Show all 25 comps
Whistling Birds ~ EV Charge
House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi
Revenue $28,323ADR $236Occ ≈ 33%5★ (38)
Home w/ SPA, Fire Pit, Yard near Ski Resort & Lake
Cabin · 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi
Revenue $30,105ADR $252Occ ≈ 33%4.9★ (108)
Starlight Hideaway: Big Bear Log Cabin w/ Hot tub!
Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.4 mi
Revenue $23,433ADR $342Occ ≈ 19%5★ (45)
Mama Bear's Manor - Luxury Spa - No Cleaning Fee
Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.5 mi
Revenue $32,049ADR $509Occ ≈ 17%4.9★ (55)
One Hundred Pines Equestrian Ranch at Big Bear Lake
Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.6 mi
Revenue $8,559ADR $295Occ ≈ 8%—
Little Big Sky Retreat - Hot Tub
Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.6 mi
Revenue $43,587ADR $303Occ ≈ 39%5★ (112)
Wagon Wheel Retreat | Dog-Friendly | Sleeps 8
House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.7 mi
Revenue $25,280ADR $259Occ ≈ 27%4.9★ (17)
| Listing | Size | Revenue (12 mo) | ADR | Occ ≈ | Rating | Distance | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Whistling Birds ~ EV Charge House | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $28,323 | $236 | 33% | 5★ (38) | 0.3 mi | Airbnb |
Peaceful, 3 BD Modern Cabin & Game Room Cabin | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 | $10,578 | $264 | 11% | 4.9★ (20) | 0.4 mi | AirbnbBooking |
Spruce Vacation home | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 | $16,467 | $325 | 14% | — | 0.4 mi | Booking |
Home w/ SPA, Fire Pit, Yard near Ski Resort & Lake Cabin | 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 | $30,105 | $252 | 33% | 4.9★ (108) | 0.4 mi | Airbnb |
Starlight Hideaway: Big Bear Log Cabin w/ Hot tub! Cabin | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $23,433 | $342 | 19% | 5★ (45) | 0.4 mi | Airbnb |
3BR Starlight Stargaze Haus - EV & Fireplace Cabin | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $14,772 | $246 | 16% | 4.9★ (13) | 0.4 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Beach to Mountains Chalet Cabin | 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 | $11,981 | $212 | 15% | 5★ (14) | 0.5 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
STAR WARS family cabin+HOT TUB+EV outlet+GAME R00M Cabin | 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 10 | $41,852 | $321 | 36% | 5★ (228) | 0.5 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Summer retreat-Hot Tub, Arcade, Play Room Cabin | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 | $41,395 | $302 | 38% | 4.8★ (87) | 0.5 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Mama Bear's Manor - Luxury Spa - No Cleaning Fee Cabin | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 | $32,049 | $509 | 17% | 4.9★ (55) | 0.5 mi | Airbnb |
One Hundred Pines Equestrian Ranch at Big Bear Lake Vacation home | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 | $8,559 | $295 | 8% | — | 0.6 mi | Booking |
One Hundred Pines Equestrian Ranch at Big Bear Cabin | 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 6 | $11,855 | $312 | 10% | 4.5★ (6) | 0.6 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Mountain Retreat near Big Bear Lake – 3 BR, 2. BA, Cottage | 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 | $712 | $356 | 1% | 5★ (1) | 0.6 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Little Big Sky Retreat - Hot Tub Cabin | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 | $43,587 | $303 | 39% | 5★ (112) | 0.6 mi | Airbnb |
Wagon Wheel Retreat | Dog-Friendly | Sleeps 8 House | 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $25,280 | $259 | 27% | 4.9★ (17) | 0.7 mi | Airbnb |
Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.
Cash flow calculator
Rate 7.78% = 7.03% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Sep 24) + 0.75% investor premium
Est. revenue
$20,126
NOI
$3,055
Cash flow /mo
-$2,167
Cash needed
$149,826
Cash-on-cash
-17.4%
ROE (yr 1)
-6.4%
Cap rate
0.7%
DSCR
0.11
Year-1 write-off
$142,566
Year-1 tax shield @ 32%
$45,621
Year-1 return on equity
- Cash flow (annual)-$26,005
- Principal paydown$2,941
- Appreciation at%$13,482
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown
Annual operating expenses
- Management (20% of revenue)$4,025
- Platform fees (3% of revenue)$604
- Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,006
- Utilities & supplies$4,200
- HOA$0
- Property tax$5,618
- Insurance (STR-rated)$2,292
Cash needed to close
- Down payment (25%)$112,350
- Closing costs (4.0%)$17,976
- Furnishing (bought new)$19,500
Tax savings if the STR loophole applies
- Tax shield @ 32%$45,621
Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).
The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.
Cost segregation estimate
An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.
Depreciable basis
$360,000
Short-life (5/15-yr)
$122,000 · 34%
Year-1 deduction
$143,000
Year-1 tax shield @ 32%
$46,000
Land 20% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $237,000 over 39 years · new furniture $20,000
Based on: 1,356 sq ft, built 1968, 3 bd / 1.5 ba, unfurnished, listing features (hot tub, deck, patio, fence, fireplace, stone counters, flooring types, appliance list, septic).
IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $97,000 in year 1 (21% short-life, $31,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.
- $9,900
Kitchen cabinetsdefault
$8,800 new × 40% good × 2.83 allocation
- $10,200
Kitchen countertops (stone)listing
$9,000 new × 40% good × 2.83 allocation
- $2,700
Decorative trimdefault
$2,400 new × 40% good × 2.83 allocation
- $200
Mirrorsdefault
$200 new × 40% good × 2.83 allocation
- $1,400
Shelvingdefault
$1,200 new × 40% good × 2.83 allocation
- $4,000
Window coverings (14)default
$3,500 new × 40% good × 2.83 allocation
- $9,900
Carpet, vinyl & laminate (100% of floors)listing
$8,700 new × 40% good × 2.83 allocation
- $7,700
Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault
$6,800 new × 40% good × 2.83 allocation
- $4,700
Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault
$4,100 new × 40% good × 2.83 allocation
- $1,600
Appliances (dishwasher, disposal)listing
$1,400 new × 40% good × 2.83 allocation
- $10,200
Hot tub (freestanding)listing
$9,000 new × 40% good × 2.83 allocation
- $19,500
Furniture bought newlisting
$19,500 new × 100% good · bought separately
- $10,800
Paving: driveway & walks (paved)listing
$7,600 new × 50% good × 2.83 allocation
- $10,400
Landscaping (typical)default
$7,300 new × 50% good × 2.83 allocation
- $8,600
Patioslisting
$6,100 new × 50% good × 2.83 allocation
- $21,600
Decks & porches (attached)listing
$15,300 new × 50% good × 2.83 allocation
- $8,500
Fencinglisting
$6,000 new × 50% good × 2.83 allocation
- $166,300
Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault
$146,800 new × 40% good × 2.83 allocation
- $17,200
Building plumbing & fixturesdefault
$15,200 new × 40% good × 2.83 allocation
- $16,400
Building electrical & lightingdefault
$14,500 new × 40% good × 2.83 allocation
- $17,300
HVACdefault
$15,300 new × 40% good × 2.83 allocation
- $3,000
Fireplacelisting
$2,600 new × 40% good × 2.83 allocation
- $17,000
Septic systemlisting
$12,000 new × 50% good × 2.83 allocation
About the property
Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study
| Year | 5-yr | 15-yr | Building | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $81,900 | $59,900 | $800 | $142,600 |
| 2 | $0 | $0 | $6,100 | $6,100 |
| 3 | $0 | $0 | $6,100 | $6,100 |
| 4 | $0 | $0 | $6,100 | $6,100 |
| 5 | $0 | $0 | $6,100 | $6,100 |
| 6+ | $0 | $0 | $212,100 | $212,100 |
| Total | $81,900 | $59,900 | $237,200 | $379,000 |
Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.
Market note
Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.