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866 Lakewood Dr

866 Lakewood Dr

Big Bear, CA 92314

$449,400

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,356 sqft · Listed 13d ago

View on Realtor.com →
Low confidence

Year built

1968

Sqft

1,356

Lot sqft

7,296

HOA / mo

$0

Furnished

No

List date

2026-09-16T19:58:55.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$20,126

ADR

$225

Occupancy

25%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$3,742

Confidence

Low (37.44), 25 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$11,855$16,467$28,638

  • Lincoln Log Cabin | Renovated | Near Attractions

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 499 ft

    Revenue $13,764ADR $366Occ ≈ 10%4.5★ (8)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • A Frame Escape ! Fully fenced!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $20,640ADR $134Occ ≈ 42%4.5★ (165)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Bluebird Haven

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $10,517ADR $272Occ ≈ 11%5★ (19)

    Airbnb

  • Cozy Cabin on Sixth - FREE EV Charging!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.1 mi

    Revenue $446ADR $223Occ ≈ 1%4.9★ (41)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Big Bear Getaway!

    Chalet · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $28,638ADR $185Occ ≈ 42%4.7★ (222)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 3rd Night FREE Blue Snowflake Big Bear Mtn. Resort

    Cabin · 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $3,876ADR $343Occ ≈ 3%5★ (1)

    Airbnb

  • Hershey Bear Cabin:NEW! Igloo,Hot Tub,Dog Friendly

    Cabin · 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $38,403ADR $409Occ ≈ 26%4.9★ (47)

    Airbnb

  • Cedar Creek

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $14,454ADR $229Occ ≈ 17%4.6★ (62)

    Airbnb

  • Gorgeous Newly Remodeled Cabin Minutes from slopes

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.2 mi

    Revenue $14,251ADR $240Occ ≈ 16%5★ (35)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • 'The Bear's Den' Cabin: 8 Mi to Snow Summit!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $20,669ADR $336Occ ≈ 17%4.2★ (55)

    AirbnbVrbo

Show all 25 comps

  • Whistling Birds ~ EV Charge

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.3 mi

    Revenue $28,323ADR $236Occ ≈ 33%5★ (38)

    Airbnb

  • Peaceful, 3 BD Modern Cabin & Game Room

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $10,578ADR $264Occ ≈ 11%4.9★ (20)

    AirbnbBooking

  • Spruce

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $16,467ADR $325Occ ≈ 14%—

    Booking

  • Home w/ SPA, Fire Pit, Yard near Ski Resort & Lake

    Cabin · 3 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $30,105ADR $252Occ ≈ 33%4.9★ (108)

    Airbnb

  • Starlight Hideaway: Big Bear Log Cabin w/ Hot tub!

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $23,433ADR $342Occ ≈ 19%5★ (45)

    Airbnb

  • 3BR Starlight Stargaze Haus - EV & Fireplace

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 0.4 mi

    Revenue $14,772ADR $246Occ ≈ 16%4.9★ (13)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Beach to Mountains Chalet

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $11,981ADR $212Occ ≈ 15%5★ (14)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • STAR WARS family cabin+HOT TUB+EV outlet+GAME R00M

    Cabin · 3 bd · 1.5 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $41,852ADR $321Occ ≈ 36%5★ (228)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Summer retreat-Hot Tub, Arcade, Play Room

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $41,395ADR $302Occ ≈ 38%4.8★ (87)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Mama Bear's Manor - Luxury Spa - No Cleaning Fee

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 10 · 0.5 mi

    Revenue $32,049ADR $509Occ ≈ 17%4.9★ (55)

    Airbnb

  • One Hundred Pines Equestrian Ranch at Big Bear Lake

    Vacation home · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $8,559ADR $295Occ ≈ 8%—

    Booking

  • One Hundred Pines Equestrian Ranch at Big Bear

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $11,855ADR $312Occ ≈ 10%4.5★ (6)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Mountain Retreat near Big Bear Lake – 3 BR, 2. BA,

    Cottage · 3 bd · 2.5 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $712ADR $356Occ ≈ 1%5★ (1)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Little Big Sky Retreat - Hot Tub

    Cabin · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 6 · 0.6 mi

    Revenue $43,587ADR $303Occ ≈ 39%5★ (112)

    Airbnb

  • Wagon Wheel Retreat | Dog-Friendly | Sleeps 8

    House · 3 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 0.7 mi

    Revenue $25,280ADR $259Occ ≈ 27%4.9★ (17)

    Airbnb

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing

Est. revenue

$20,126

NOI

$3,055

Cash flow /mo

$255

Cash needed

$486,876

Cash-on-cash (all cash)

0.6%

ROE (yr 1)

3.4%

Cap rate

0.7%

DSCR

—

Year-1 write-off

$142,566

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$45,621

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)$3,055
  • Principal paydown (n/a, cash)$0
  • Appreciation at%$13,482
ROE3.4%
ROE incl. year-1 tax savings (32% bracket, STR loophole)12.8%
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$4,025
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$604
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,006
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$5,618
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$2,292

Cash needed to close

  • Purchase price (all cash)$449,400
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$17,976
  • Furnishing (bought new)$19,500

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$45,621

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$360,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$122,000 · 34%

Year-1 deduction

$143,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$46,000

Land 20% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $237,000 over 39 years · new furniture $20,000

Based on: 1,356 sq ft, built 1968, 3 bd / 1.5 ba, unfurnished, listing features (hot tub, deck, patio, fence, fireplace, stone counters, flooring types, appliance list, septic).

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $97,000 in year 1 (21% short-life, $31,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$81,900

  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $8,800 new × 40% good × 2.83 allocation

    $9,900

  • Kitchen countertops (stone)listing

    $9,000 new × 40% good × 2.83 allocation

    $10,200

  • Decorative trimdefault

    $2,400 new × 40% good × 2.83 allocation

    $2,700

  • Mirrorsdefault

    $200 new × 40% good × 2.83 allocation

    $200

  • Shelvingdefault

    $1,200 new × 40% good × 2.83 allocation

    $1,400

  • Window coverings (14)default

    $3,500 new × 40% good × 2.83 allocation

    $4,000

  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (100% of floors)listing

    $8,700 new × 40% good × 2.83 allocation

    $9,900

  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $6,800 new × 40% good × 2.83 allocation

    $7,700

  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $4,100 new × 40% good × 2.83 allocation

    $4,700

  • Appliances (dishwasher, disposal)listing

    $1,400 new × 40% good × 2.83 allocation

    $1,600

  • Hot tub (freestanding)listing

    $9,000 new × 40% good × 2.83 allocation

    $10,200

  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $19,500 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $19,500
15-year land improvements$59,900

  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)listing

    $7,600 new × 50% good × 2.83 allocation

    $10,800

  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $7,300 new × 50% good × 2.83 allocation

    $10,400

  • Patioslisting

    $6,100 new × 50% good × 2.83 allocation

    $8,600

  • Decks & porches (attached)listing

    $15,300 new × 50% good × 2.83 allocation

    $21,600

  • Fencinglisting

    $6,000 new × 50% good × 2.83 allocation

    $8,500
Building, 39-year$237,200

  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $146,800 new × 40% good × 2.83 allocation

    $166,300

  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $15,200 new × 40% good × 2.83 allocation

    $17,200

  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $14,500 new × 40% good × 2.83 allocation

    $16,400

  • HVACdefault

    $15,300 new × 40% good × 2.83 allocation

    $17,300

  • Fireplacelisting

    $2,600 new × 40% good × 2.83 allocation

    $3,000

  • Septic systemlisting

    $12,000 new × 50% good × 2.83 allocation

    $17,000

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$81,900$59,900$800$142,600
2$0$0$6,100$6,100
3$0$0$6,100$6,100
4$0$0$6,100$6,100
5$0$0$6,100$6,100
6+$0$0$212,100$212,100
Total$81,900$59,900$237,200$379,000

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California and Georgia disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Big Bear Lake (city) and unincorporated county areas both allow permitted short-term rentals, and we found no numeric permit cap in either. Permits/licenses generally do NOT transfer on sale — a buyer must apply for their own, so confirm permit status with the city or San Bernardino County before closing. City: vacation rental license, up to 3 per owner. County: 1 permit per parcel under 2 acres, 2 max per owner. Lodging tax ~13% in the city, ~7% county. Rules change; verify before you buy.