16658 Dog Creek Rd
Lakehead, CA 96051
$399,900
2 bd · 1 ba · 1,074 sqft · Listed today
View on Realtor.com →Year built
1940
Sqft
1,074
Lot sqft
139,392
HOA / mo
$0
Furnished
No
List date
2026-10-13T00:06:43.000000Z
Revenue
Annual revenue
$23,141
ADR
$195
Occupancy
33%
Cleaning fees (12 mo)
$3,800
Confidence
Med (59.45), 9 comps
Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)
Median revenue of shown comps: $18,846
Mountain Oaks Chalet
House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 4.1 mi
Revenue $13,468ADR $181Occ ≈ 20%5★ (25)
Cozy cabin close to lake & I5/ 2 car garage
House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 4.1 mi
Revenue $13,234ADR $187Occ ≈ 19%4.7★ (27)
The perfect pit stop.
Tiny house · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 4.8 mi
Revenue $15,855ADR $127Occ ≈ 34%—
| Listing | Size | Revenue (12 mo) | ADR | Occ ≈ | Rating | Distance | Links |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mountain Oaks Chalet House | 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 | $13,468 | $181 | 20% | 5★ (25) | 4.1 mi | Airbnb |
Cozy cabin close to lake & I5/ 2 car garage House | 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 | $13,234 | $187 | 19% | 4.7★ (27) | 4.1 mi | Airbnb |
Lakehead Bungalow House | 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 | $18,199 | $152 | 33% | 4.7★ (13) | 4.2 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
Cute Lake Home, 2 Bedroom, 1 Bath, 50 & 30 AMP EV House | 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 | $29,596 | $349 | 23% | 5★ (18) | 4.4 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Private Lakeview Retreat, Kayaks, Easy Lake Access House | 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 | $40,369 | $477 | 23% | 5★ (20) | 4.4 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Charming Lake Cottage • Relaxed, Cozy Stay Cottage | 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 | $29,933 | $203 | 40% | 4.8★ (82) | 4.7 mi | AirbnbVrboBooking |
The perfect pit stop. Tiny house | 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 | $15,855 | $127 | 34% | — | 4.8 mi | Airbnb |
5min to Sugarloaf boat ramp/25 min to Mt Shasta House | 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 | $18,846 | $219 | 24% | 4.8★ (43) | 4.9 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Doney Creek Cabin-Wooded 1 acre/ Boat parking Cabin | 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 | $28,844 | $275 | 29% | 5★ (56) | 4.9 mi | AirbnbVrbo |
Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.
Cash flow calculator
Rate 8.15% = 7.40% Freddie Mac 30-yr avg (Oct 8) + 0.75% investor premium
Est. revenue
$23,141
NOI
$5,723
Cash flow /mo
-$1,755
Cash needed
$131,971
Cash-on-cash
-16.0%
ROE (yr 1)
-5.0%
Cap rate
1.4%
DSCR
0.21
Year-1 write-off
$89,228
Year-1 tax shield @ 32%
$28,553
Year-1 return on equity
- Cash flow (annual)-$21,063
- Principal paydown$2,432
- Appreciation at%$11,997
Tax savings aren't counted. Turn on “Count tax savings in returns” above if you can use the losses.
Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown
Annual operating expenses
- Management (20% of revenue)$4,628
- Platform fees (3% of revenue)$694
- Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,157
- Utilities & supplies$4,200
- HOA$0
- Property tax$4,999
- Insurance (STR-rated)$2,339
Cash needed to close
- Down payment (25%)$99,975
- Closing costs (4.0%)$15,996
- Furnishing (bought new)$16,000
Tax savings if the STR loophole applies
- Tax shield @ 32%$28,553
Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).
The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.
Cost segregation estimate
An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.
Depreciable basis
$260,000
Short-life (5/15-yr)
$73,000 · 28%
Year-1 deduction
$89,000
Year-1 tax shield @ 32%
$29,000
Land 35% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $187,000 over 39 years · new furniture $16,000
Based on: 1,074 sq ft, built 1940, 2 bd / 1 ba, unfurnished, listing features (flooring types, septic).
Try the cost segregation calculator on any property →
IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $68,000 in year 1 (20% short-life, $22,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.
- $9,200
Kitchen cabinetsdefault
$8,200 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation
- $7,500
Kitchen countertopsdefault
$6,700 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation
- $2,100
Decorative trimdefault
$1,900 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation
- $200
Mirrorsdefault
$200 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation
- $1,000
Shelvingdefault
$900 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation
- $3,100
Window coverings (11)default
$2,800 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation
- $7,800
Carpet, vinyl & laminate (100% of floors)listing
$6,900 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation
- $7,100
Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault
$6,300 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation
- $4,300
Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault
$3,800 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation
- $9,100
Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)default
$8,100 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation
- $16,000
Furniture bought newlisting
$16,000 new × 100% good · bought separately
- $9,500
Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default
$6,800 new × 50% good × 2.81 allocation
- $9,200
Landscaping (typical)default
$6,500 new × 50% good × 2.81 allocation
- $1,500
Patiosdefault
$1,100 new × 50% good × 2.81 allocation
- $1,500
Decks & porches (attached)default
$1,100 new × 50% good × 2.81 allocation
- $130,600
Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault
$116,300 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation
- $13,500
Building plumbing & fixturesdefault
$12,000 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation
- $12,200
Building electrical & lightingdefault
$10,900 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation
- $13,600
HVACdefault
$12,100 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation
- $16,800
Septic systemlisting
$12,000 new × 50% good × 2.81 allocation
About the property
Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study
| Year | 5-yr | 15-yr | Building | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $67,300 | $21,700 | $200 | $89,200 |
| 2 | $0 | $0 | $4,800 | $4,800 |
| 3 | $0 | $0 | $4,800 | $4,800 |
| 4 | $0 | $0 | $4,800 | $4,800 |
| 5 | $0 | $0 | $4,800 | $4,800 |
| 6+ | $0 | $0 | $167,500 | $167,500 |
| Total | $67,300 | $21,700 | $186,800 | $275,800 |
Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California, Georgia and Wisconsin disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.
Market note
Rules differ by jurisdiction. City of Redding caps whole-home vacation rentals at 400 with a 600 ft spacing rule (300 ft with a physical buffer), and its permit is NOT transferable to a new owner. Shasta Lake city and unincorporated Shasta County allow permitted rentals with no cap found, but permits also do not transfer on sale. Lodging tax ~10% plus a 2% tourism assessment in Redding. Verify parcel eligibility with the city or county before you buy.