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16658 Dog Creek Rd

16658 Dog Creek Rd

Lakehead, CA 96051

$399,900

2 bd · 1 ba · 1,074 sqft · Listed today

View on Realtor.com →

Year built

1940

Sqft

1,074

Lot sqft

139,392

HOA / mo

$0

Furnished

No

List date

2026-10-13T00:06:43.000000Z

Revenue

Annual revenue

$23,141

ADR

$195

Occupancy

33%

Cleaning fees (12 mo)

$3,800

Confidence

Med (59.45), 9 comps

Comp revenue range (p25 / median / p75)

$15,855$18,846$29,596

Median revenue of shown comps: $18,846

  • Mountain Oaks Chalet

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 4.1 mi

    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • Washer

    Revenue $13,468ADR $181Occ ≈ 20%5★ (25)

    Airbnb

  • Cozy cabin close to lake & I5/ 2 car garage

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 4 · 4.1 mi

    Revenue $13,234ADR $187Occ ≈ 19%4.7★ (27)

    Delisted

  • Lakehead Bungalow

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 4.2 mi

    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +2

    Revenue $18,199ADR $152Occ ≈ 33%4.7★ (13)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • Cute Lake Home, 2 Bedroom, 1 Bath, 50 & 30 AMP EV

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 4.4 mi

    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +4

    Revenue $29,596ADR $349Occ ≈ 23%5★ (18)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Private Lakeview Retreat, Kayaks, Easy Lake Access

    House · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 8 · 4.4 mi

    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • Wifi
    • +4

    Revenue $40,369ADR $477Occ ≈ 23%5★ (20)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Charming Lake Cottage • Relaxed, Cozy Stay

    Cottage · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 4.7 mi

    • Hot tub
    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Pets OK
    • +4

    Revenue $29,933ADR $203Occ ≈ 40%4.8★ (82)

    AirbnbVrboBooking

  • The perfect pit stop.

    Tiny house · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 4 · 4.8 mi

    Revenue $15,855ADR $127Occ ≈ 34%—

    Delisted

  • 5min to Sugarloaf boat ramp/25 min to Mt Shasta

    House · 2 bd · 1 ba · sleeps 6 · 4.9 mi

    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +1

    Revenue $18,846ADR $219Occ ≈ 24%4.8★ (43)

    AirbnbVrbo

  • Doney Creek Cabin-Wooded 1 acre/ Boat parking

    Cabin · 2 bd · 2 ba · sleeps 7 · 4.9 mi

    • A/C
    • Free parking
    • Wifi
    • Kitchen
    • +3

    Revenue $28,844ADR $275Occ ≈ 29%5★ (56)

    AirbnbVrbo

Revenue and nightly rate (ADR) are trailing-12-month figures per listing. Occupancy is estimated as revenue ÷ ADR ÷ 365 and can read high when revenue includes cleaning fees.

Cash flow calculator

Financing
Management

Est. revenue

$23,141

NOI

$5,723

Cash flow /mo

$477

Cash needed

$431,896

Cash-on-cash (all cash)

1.3%

ROE (yr 1)

4.1%

Cap rate

1.4%

DSCR

—

Year-1 write-off

$89,228

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$28,553

Year-1 return on equity

  • Cash flow (annual)$5,723
  • Principal paydown (n/a, cash)$0
  • Appreciation at%$11,997
ROE4.1%

Tax savings aren't counted. Turn on “Count tax savings in returns” above if you can use the losses.

Opex, cash-needed & tax-savings breakdown

Annual operating expenses

  • Management (20% of revenue)$4,628
  • Platform fees (3% of revenue)$694
  • Maintenance / capex (5% of revenue)$1,157
  • Utilities & supplies$4,200
  • HOA$0
  • Property tax$4,999
  • Insurance (STR-rated)$2,339

Cash needed to close

  • Purchase price (all cash)$399,900
  • Closing costs (4.0%)$15,996
  • Furnishing (bought new)$16,000

Tax savings if the STR loophole applies

  • Tax shield @ 32%$28,553

Property tax, insurance rate and the land/building split come from this listing's county tax record; other assumptions match the daily feed (see tasks/plan.md).

The write-off comes from the cost segregation estimate below. Not tax advice.

Cost segregation estimate

An estimate from the listing: every part of the home is priced from national construction costs, less wear for age, and the price (less land) is spread over the parts in proportion. The headline is what a typical cost seg study would claim for this property. The answers below are optional refinements.

Depreciable basis

$260,000

Short-life (5/15-yr)

$73,000 · 28%

Year-1 deduction

$89,000

Year-1 tax shield @ 32%

$29,000

Land 35% (county tax record, assessed value split) · building $187,000 over 39 years · new furniture $16,000

Based on: 1,074 sq ft, built 1940, 2 bd / 1 ba, unfurnished, listing features (flooring types, septic).

Try the cost segregation calculator on any property →

IRS-guide safe-harbor floor: $68,000 in year 1 (20% short-life, $22,000 tax shield), the conservative amount following the IRS audit guide's residential classification table.

5-year property$67,300

  • Kitchen cabinetsdefault

    $8,200 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation

    $9,200

  • Kitchen countertopsdefault

    $6,700 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation

    $7,500

  • Decorative trimdefault

    $1,900 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation

    $2,100

  • Mirrorsdefault

    $200 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation

    $200

  • Shelvingdefault

    $900 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation

    $1,000

  • Window coverings (11)default

    $2,800 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation

    $3,100

  • Carpet, vinyl & laminate (100% of floors)listing

    $6,900 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation

    $7,800

  • Kitchen & laundry equipment plumbingdefault

    $6,300 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation

    $7,100

  • Kitchen, laundry & data equipment electricaldefault

    $3,800 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation

    $4,300

  • Appliances (range, microwave, dishwasher, disposal, refrigerator, washer, dryer)default

    $8,100 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation

    $9,100

  • Furniture bought newlisting

    $16,000 new × 100% good · bought separately

    $16,000
15-year land improvements$21,700

  • Paving: driveway & walks (paved)default

    $6,800 new × 50% good × 2.81 allocation

    $9,500

  • Landscaping (typical)default

    $6,500 new × 50% good × 2.81 allocation

    $9,200

  • Patiosdefault

    $1,100 new × 50% good × 2.81 allocation

    $1,500

  • Decks & porches (attached)default

    $1,100 new × 50% good × 2.81 allocation

    $1,500
Building, 39-year$186,800

  • Structure: foundation, framing, walls, windows, doors, roof, interior finishesdefault

    $116,300 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation

    $130,600

  • Building plumbing & fixturesdefault

    $12,000 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation

    $13,500

  • Building electrical & lightingdefault

    $10,900 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation

    $12,200

  • HVACdefault

    $12,100 new × 40% good × 2.81 allocation

    $13,600

  • Septic systemlisting

    $12,000 new × 50% good × 2.81 allocation

    $16,800

About the property

Depreciation schedule: typical cost seg study

Year5-yr15-yrBuildingTotal
1$67,300$21,700$200$89,200
2$0$0$4,800$4,800
3$0$0$4,800$4,800
4$0$0$4,800$4,800
5$0$0$4,800$4,800
6+$0$0$167,500$167,500
Total$67,300$21,700$186,800$275,800

Model-based estimate, not an engineered cost segregation study. The IRS doesn’t approve studies; get a professional study before filing. Using these losses against W-2 income needs the short-term rental exception (average stay ≤7 days + material participation). The 39-year building life applies because stays average under 30 days, a separate test (27.5 years for a long-term rental). Federal only: California, Georgia and Wisconsin disallow bonus depreciation, Ohio adds back 5/6 of it, and Tennessee has no personal income tax. Not tax advice.

Market note

Rules differ by jurisdiction. City of Redding caps whole-home vacation rentals at 400 with a 600 ft spacing rule (300 ft with a physical buffer), and its permit is NOT transferable to a new owner. Shasta Lake city and unincorporated Shasta County allow permitted rentals with no cap found, but permits also do not transfer on sale. Lodging tax ~10% plus a 2% tourism assessment in Redding. Verify parcel eligibility with the city or county before you buy.